MarketWorx : Technical Analysis & Trading

1. Shaun van den Berg MarketWorx: Technical Analysis & Trading 11 October 2011

2. Agenda Investor Make Money WEN Charting Day Trading Technical Analysis Swing Trading Trader Position Trading Equities SSF CFD

3. Share Market Analysis Share Market Analysis Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Volume Macro Fundamentals Micro Fundamentals Price

4. Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Fundamentals Volume Price Supply & Demand Trends Patterns

5. Market Psychology 1st Stage Things would not always be rosy 3rd Stage Things will get better forever 2nd Stage Things are deteriorating 2nd Stage Improvement Is actually underway 3rd Stage Things can only get worse 1st Stage Things are getting better

6. Price Charts Closing Line Charts Bar Charts Bar Volume Charts Point & Figure Charts Candlestick Charts Breakout Trading Cycle & Trend Analysis Support & Resistance Trend Lines Continuation Patterns Reversal Chart Patterns Swing Trading Strategy Moving Averages 10-day SMA & 30-day EMA 200-day SMA Technical Oscillators OBOS & Momentum RSI & Stochastic MACD Volume Analysis On Balance Volume Volume Price Trend Relative Strength Analysis Relative to Sector Relative to JSE Overall Technical Analysis

7. Price Charts: Closing Line Chart

8. Price Charts: Bar Chart High Close Open Low

9. Price Charts: Bar Volume Chart

10. Price Chart: Point & Figure Chart

11. Point & Figure Charts – Double Top Formation

12. Point & Figure Charts – Double Bottom Formation

13. P & F Charts - Variations of the Double Top & Bottom Formation

14. Point & Figure Charts – Bullish Signal Formation

15. Point & Figure Charts – Triple Bottom Formations

16. Point & Figure Charts– Formations in Combinations

17. Point & Figure Charts – Variations on the Triple Top

18. P & F Charts - Variations on the Triple Bottom Formation

19. Point & Figure Charts – Bearish Signal Formation

20. Point & Figure Charts – Symmetrical Triangles

21. Point & Figure Charts – Triple Top Formations

22. Point & Figure Charts – The Broadening Formation

23. Point & Figure Charts – Bullish & Bearish Catapult Formations

24. P&F Charts– Bullish & Bearish Signal Reversed Formations

25. Point & Figure Charts– Bullish & Bearish Support Lines

26. Point & Figure Charts– Bullish & Bearish Resistance Lines

27. Horizontal Count (Upside) The upside target in the chart below = (14 x 5 x 3) + 0 = 210c

28. Horizontal Count (Downside) The downside target in the chart below = 100 - (6 x 5 x 3) = 10c

29. Price Chart: Candlesticks

30. Gather Information: Technical Analysis Checklist Trending(Up/ Down) Cycles Support & Resistance Moving Averages Trend Lines Overbought/Oversold OB/OS & Momentum RSI & Stochastic / MACD OBV & VPT Outperformance/Underperformance Relative StrengthAnalysis

31. Trends & Cycles Bear Bull Corrections Rallies Sideways

32. Trends & Cycles Bearish Trend Bullish Trend Bullish Trend

33. Market Cycles - Bull Higher Highs, Higher Lows

34. Market Cycles - Corrections

35. Market Cycles - Bear Lower Highs, Lower Lows

36. Market Cycles - Rallies

37. Support & Resistance Reversals

38. Support & Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Support Support Resistance Resistance Support Support Support Resistance Resistance Support Support Support Support & Resistance levels highlight possible “turning points”

39. Support & Resistance • The more times a share price has touched these areas, the more valid these levels are &themore important they become. • The longer these support & resistance levels have been in play, the better the outcome when the share price finally breaks out.

40. Support & Resistance - Bull Resistance Support Support Support Resistance Resistance/Support

41. Support & Resistance - Bear Resistance/Support Support Support Support Resistance Resistance/ Support Support Resistance

42. Trend Lines As long as the price stays above/ below the Support or Resistance lines, the trend is either bullish or bearish Resistance Trend Line Support Trend Line Resistance Trend Line Support Trend Line

43. Trend Lines - Bull Resistance Resistance Support Resistance Trend Line Support Trend Line Support Trend Line

44. Trend Lines - Bear Support Trend Line SupportTrend Line ResistanceTrendLine Support Trend Line SupportTrend Line ResistanceTrendLine ResistanceTrendLine ResistanceTrendLine

45. Failed Breakouts

46. Entry Points • Once prices are set toclose above a resistancelevel, a trader will establish a bullish position. • When prices are set to close below a supportlevel, a trader will take on a bearish position.

47. Exit Points • How long am I planning on being in this trade? (Depends on what type of trader you are: Position, Swing or Day Trader) • How much risk am I willing to take? • Setting near-term profit targets that execute at opportune times to maximize profits. • Here are some common execution points: • Retracement levels. • Trend line breaks (Support & Resistance). • Any other technical points. • Developing solid stop-loss points that immediately get rid of holdings that do not perform. • Creating exit strategies based on technical factors affecting the short-term.

48. Exit Points • Where do I want to get out? • Many people become irrationally attached to their holdings & hold these equities when the underlying fundamentals of the trade have changed • Traders sometimes worry & sell their holdings even when there has been no change in underlying fundamentals. • Both of these situations can lead to losses &missed profit opportunities. • Set a point at which you will sell takes the emotion out of trading. • The exit point itself should be set at a critical price level, i.e. technical points e.g. Retracement levels

49. Rectangle Formation 24 to 30 = 6

50. Triangles