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GHG projections of Romania-How much is available? April 30 Bucharest, Romania

GHG projections of Romania-How much is available? April 30 Bucharest, Romania. Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe. GHG Emission Trends and Projections in Europe in 2008. In cooperation with ETC-EEA

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GHG projections of Romania-How much is available? April 30 Bucharest, Romania

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  1. GHG projections of Romania-How much is available?April 30Bucharest, Romania Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe

  2. GHG Emission Trends and Projections in Europe in 2008 • In cooperation with ETC-EEA • Covering all the European countries • Web page: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_5

  3. OUTLINE • Base year GHG emissions and Kyoto target • GHG Emission trends by sector • GHG Projections • Available AAUs for carbon market for the first commitment period. • Conclusions

  4. Base year GHG Emissions and Kyoto target • Kyoto base year is 1989 for all gases • Initial Report………281.895 Mt CO2 eq • Expert review……..278.225 Mt CO2 eq • Kyoto Target: -8% by 2012 278.225 x 92% = 255.967 Mt CO2 eq

  5. GHG EMISSION TRENDS BY SECTOR

  6. Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007

  7. Difference in base year emissions2005 vs. 2006 Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007

  8. GHG by sectors in 2004 • fossil fuels combustion • domestic energy sources as lignite and hard coal • Fuel switch and increased EE. • methane emissions from agriculture and waste sectors possible. Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007

  9. GHG PROJECTIONS

  10. WEM and WAM projections for 2010 • 31.6 % and 35.3 % less then base year Source: European Environmental Agency, 2008

  11. Projections for 2015 and 2020 based on WAM • Kyoto compliance even in 2020 • But GHG emissions further accelerating Source: European Energy Agency, 2008

  12. GIS in Romania

  13. Why GIS in Romania? • A strongdecline in the GHG emissions and has a possible big surplus in Romania • Advantage of GIS: • Optional instrument to secure the environmental benefits of the sales of AAUs • flexibility in project eligibility and approval • flexibility in designing financial mechanisms for project support.

  14. How much AAUs can be sold? • AA2008-2012 = 1,299,349,047 tCO2-eq. • Commitment Period Reserve (most recent inventory bases) 5 x GHG emissions in 2004 =800,298,657 tCO2-eq • Remaining AAUs 1,299,349,047 - 800,298,657 =499,050,390 tCO2-eq.

  15. Why to be careful with AAUs? • Energy sector increase since 1999 • Increase in the investments since 2004 (EU membership) • global economic crisis is TEMPORARY • Energy and agriculture sectors are projected to increase GHG emission for the 2010-2020 • GHG emmission calculation models to be improved • Projection models to be improved

  16. Why to be careful with AAUs? • New methodologies/models are implemented • Projection calculations to be revised based on new emission calculation & projection models • Overselling the AAUs may jeopardize the compliance with Kyoto targets

  17. Summary and Conclusion • WEM will be enough for 2012 commitment • Projected emissions for 2015 and 2020 will remain still very much below the Kyoto target. • A high potential of further GHG reduction • High potential for GIS projects • However, there is a potential of accelerated increase of emissions • Changes in the models and methodologies for projections should be taken into account • Compliance to Kyoto targets should be the priority

  18. Thank you Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe gamze@rec.org www.rec.org

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