ENHANCING SAFETY PERFORMANCE THROUGH RISK PERCEPTION AND RISK TOLERANCE Joseph M. Deeb, Ph.D., CPE, M.Erg.S. ExxonMobi

1. ENHANCING SAFETY PERFORMANCE THROUGH RISK PERCEPTION AND RISK TOLERANCE Joseph M. Deeb, Ph.D., CPE, M.Erg.S. ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc Singapore June 23, 2006 Publication Number: 2006.1394

2. Objectives • Business Impact • Background • Introduction and Facts • Methodology • Factors Influencing Risk Perception • Applications of Risk Perception techniques

3. Risk Perception Business Impact • Supports any business vision of “Zero Injury, Nobody Gets Hurt” • Break through safety performance plateau: • Augment safety programs with risk perception learnings • Provide tools to better perceive and avoid risk • Reduce/Eliminate incidents

4. Unsafe Practices; Procedures Not Followed Lack of Hazard Recognition & Risk Mitigation Equipment Failure 6% Lack of Leadership and Communication 12% Environmental Conditions 48% 14% 20% SAFETY PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT SAFETY PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT FACILITIES FACILITIES ACCIDENT RATE ACCIDENT RATE OIMS Safety Systems - OIMS HUMAN FACTORS HUMAN FACTORS TIME TIME View Graph /M2- 5 Background Human Factors is the focal point 68% of incidents are due to lack of hazard recognition and, risk perception and mitigation

5. Introduction & Some Definitions • What is Perception? • Process to add meaning to received information • Depends on knowledge and experience • What is Risk Perception? • Process of determining likelihood and severity of injury • Determined by availability of risk in memory • Behavior is determined by perceived rather than actual risk • Risk Tolerance – Is the subjective level of acceptable risk • Hazard – Is a condition or set of circumstances that has the potential of causing harm or contributing to injury, illness, or property damage

6. Demonstration

7. Demonstration

8. Few Facts About Perception of Risk • Subjective assessment of risk is as important as quantification of • risk. • Hazards not perceived or recognized will not be acted on. • In general, people’s perception of risk is lower than actual risk. • Disagreement about risk should not be expected to evaporate • with the presence of evidence. • Strong initial views are resistant to change because they • influence the way that subsequent information is interpreted. • New evidence appears reliable if it is consistent with one’s initial • beliefs.

9. Methodology • Reviewed wide range of literature • Technological Threats e.g. Nuclear power • Health Threats e.g., AIDS • Lifestyle Risks e.g., Smoking, alcohol consumption • Proposed a Cognitive Incident Stages Model (CISM) • Identified 8 main factors that can influence perception of risk • Integrated factors into selected safety programs • Incorporate the findings into sites’ own safety programs • Enhance employee perception of risk • Reduce/eliminate incidents

10. Cognitive Incident Sequence Model (CISM) • Goals of Risk Perception Process • Allow individuals to: • close the gap between actual and perceived risk • properly determine the likelihood and severity of injury to one’s self and others (Consequence). • Human information processing is critical to help and motivate employees to take actions and make interventions that will encourage safer behavior (Consequence becomes Antecedent).

11. Source Channel Noticeability Attention Memory Comprehension Receiver Attitudes Beliefs Motivation Behavior Cognitive Incident Sequence Model (CISM) & Culture Culture is a cognitive framework that influences how we process information Culture is a collection of values, beliefs, traditions, and behavior patterns Wogalter, DeJoy, & Laughery, 1999

12. Risk Acceptance Influenced by: Goggles - Overestimate/Underestimate - Familiarity - Cost of Compliance Bare Arms - Voluntary Exposure Contacting Ladder - Social Influence Metal Ladder Wet Clothing Contacting Ladder Bare Wet Feet Electrical Cord Contacting Ladder In Water Factors Influencing Risk Perception 1. Underestimating/Overestimating capabilities 2. Familiarity - Complacency 3. Severity of Consequences - Injury 4. Cost of Compliance - Time & Effort 5. Voluntary Exposure - Risk Taking 6. Controllable & Understood Hazards 7. Social Influence - Peer Pressure/Role Models 8. Personal Experiences Risk Perception Factors

13. Factors Influencing Risk Perception

14. Factors Influencing Risk Perception Cont’

15. Risk Perception and the ABC Model • Consequences • (What Occurs as a result of the action) • Injury • Penalty • Peer approval • Comfort • Convenience • Save time • Feedback • Antecedents • (Any trigger that leads people to act in a specific way) • Availability • Peer pressure • Rushing • Training/Demos • Mild consequence • Policies/Procedures • Supervisor feedback • Always did it like this • Incentive/Disincentive Behavior (What we do, How we act, Observable action) Not wearing eye protection when required Reality Behavior Change Cognitive Behavior Change

16. Altering Risk Perception Underestimate/Overestimate • Awareness to employees about underestimation and overestimation of situation and, how they lead to lower/higher risk perception. • Training/communication/methodologies/tools about how best to avoid underestimation/overestimation of situation. Familiarity • Strong warnings and emphasis on clear, explicit hazards. Train employees on how familiarity breeds lower risk perception. Severity of Consequences • Provide and emphasize clear, explicit hazards and consequences information in both presentations and warning signs/situations. Cost of Compliance • Minimize the cost of noncompliance by designing a safer system. • Provide and emphasize clear, explicit hazards and consequences information in both presentations and warning signs/situations. Voluntary Exposure • Training employees to understand and appreciate the difference between power of choice (lower risk perception) and no choice (higher risk perception). Lower risk perception can create an environment of unawareness of actual dangers and deficiencies. Controllable and Understood Hazards • Part of the training programs, we need to discuss the complexity of people and their integral contribution to most workplace hazards and injuries. This will increase: • 1) the perceived value of ongoing safety interventions and, • 2) the beliefs that a safe place (on and off the job) requires total commitment and involvement of all employees. Social Influence • As part of the safety presentations and awareness training, employees need to understand what social influence and transition figure mean, how they work and, how they can be applied. The training should focus on the premise that: if employees see others complying with safety rules, they are more likely to comply themselves. Similarly, seeing others not complying lessens the likelihood of complying. Personal Experiences • Train and encourage employees to use the power of personal stories and individual accounts in addition to convincing statistics. For example, focus of safety meetings/presentations should emphasize the human element of safety.

17. Summary of Specific Application of Guidance Document • Safety communication • Posters, papers, and presentations • Considerations for sender, transmitter, & receiver • Motivation • Message • Warnings • Criteria for warning communication • Design criteria (e.g., attention, hazard information, • consequence, comprehension, brevity, etc) • Training • Facts • How to discuss risk • Principles for successful training • Content • Training program template

18. Another Example Influenced by: - Underestimate/ Overestimate - Familiarity - Cost of Compliance - Voluntary Exposure - Controllable & Understood Hazards 1st Worker 2nd Worker How did they get to here?

19. Another Example

20. Demonstration Things are not always what they seem

21. Demonstration