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HIRLAM-6 and HIRLAM-A

HIRLAM-6 and HIRLAM-A. HIRLAM Council. Advisory Comittee. Project Leader. 100%. Management Group : Project Leader : Area leaders : System Manager. Data Assimilation algorithms. Data Assimilation observation usage. (Model dynamics). Model physics. System. 25%. 100%. 25%.

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HIRLAM-6 and HIRLAM-A

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  1. HIRLAM-6 and HIRLAM-A HIRLAM Council Advisory Comittee Project Leader 100% Management Group : Project Leader : Area leaders : System Manager Data Assimilation algorithms Data Assimilation observation usage (Model dynamics) Model physics System 25% 100% 25% Mesoscale model 25% 50% Heads of Research Staff (14) Core group members (8) EWGLAM 2005 2-3

  2. HIRLAM – ALADIN organisation EWGLAM 2005

  3. End of HIRLAM-6 2005 • HIRLAM Evaluation • New Programme • Strategy for 5-10 years • Recent activities and results • Data assimilation • Observations • Model physics • Dynamics and LBCs • Meso-scale modelling • HIRLAM and ALADIN collaboration EWGLAM 2005

  4. Evaluation of HIRLAMOct 2004 – Feb 2005 • Positive views and HIRLAM essential for institutes but: • Some complaints and hard to beat ECMWF • Slow to solve some long standing problems (winter) • No real development of high resolution FC system • Not enough EPS • HIRLAM important for ECMWF • MF and ALADIN has benefited (spectral, 3DV, DFI..) • MoU with weaknesses – too short time and ambitious • Project has no authority • Role of Council not clear and not decisive

  5. Evaluation recommendations • Stable contractual framework • Clearer roles for governing bodies • Authority to Project and Management • Need good scientists and leaders • Dedicated Core group • Choice of ALADIN probably good • But could have been other alternatives • HIRLAM brand important • Resources on synoptic model cannot be reduced • Additional resources and use synergy effects • Convergence with ALADIN • Operational collaboration

  6. HIRLAM-A organisation: • Better control from the Programme, more full time • Programme Manager 100% • Core group members 100% 1/member(=7 or 8) • 1 part time Scientific Secretary (perhaps) • 4 Project leaders x 75% (at least) • Applications (100%) • DA and observations • Dynamics and EPS • Physical parameterisation • Co-operation Agreement with ALADIN, common research and collaboration for meso-scale • General and open MoU for 5-10 years • Projects may change + optional projects: • Operational cooperation – climate support

  7. HIRLAM long term strategy2005-2015 • General development in the environment: • Increased international cooperation and coordination • Synoptic scale LAM will be needed even beyond 2010 • Meso-scale 3-1 km models will be operational • New demands for nesting, assimilation, initialisation, postprocessing and probabilistic forecast products • Short range EPS developed and in use • Earth system modelling – support for chemistry, bio- and hydrosphere EWGLAM 2005

  8. Meso-scale forecasting system • Best available 2.5 km meso-scale modelling system operational in most of the HIRLAM countries 2010 – for parts or all of the territory – and applicable for 1 km BECAUSE it is • Necessary for forecasting in mountainous regions • Needed for very-short range prediction of severe weather, particularly with convection • Needed for high resolution applications, air quality, dispersion, disastrous releases etc. EWGLAM 2005

  9. The meso-scale forecsting system requires: • Non-hydrostatic (non approximated equations) and efficient dynamics (long time steps possible) • Advanced meso-scale physics, particularly for clouds and precipitation species and turbulence (convection mainly resolved except shallow) • Advanced data assimilation that initialises particularly the moist processes (rain and clouds) and that can utilise many new data sources – Takes time ….. • Probabilistic forecasting and integrated system for estimating the probabilities • Transparent boundary treatment EWGLAM 2005

  10. Synoptic scale 10 km model • Model for regional forecasting tightly coupled to ECMWF (will not be done by ECMWF <2015) • To provide best forecasts of synoptic disturbances with short data cut off ** • To provide a comprehensive (high resolution in space and time) set of forecast variables for applications and other models • To provide coupling to the meso-scale model with high resolution in space and time • Consistent physics with meso-scale model • EPS may have to be at 8-10 km for long time! **) depends on developments at and for ECMWF, too EWGLAM 2005

  11. Develop EPS for all time ranges • First for synoptic forecasting 24-48 (-72) h • (Almost no HIRLAM-5 and -6 resources given (officially)) – requires more resources – • Science not really developed for short range – • Natural for Operational collaboration between institutes (GRID) • Pursue in a wider European context – similar work in several places and of operational kind, exchanges • Absolutely necessary for meso-scale • Very expensive • Science not at all developed • Alternative methods (probabilistic postprocessing, using something from EPS at larger scales ?) EWGLAM 2005

  12. 3D/4D VAR: Tuning background and observation statistics • Derive more statistics • Tune σb and σo on innovation statistics • NMC method *0.4 instead of 0.6 • Statistical balance • Horizontal variation of σb (index field) • Balanced Jb balance equation and omega • Nonlinear transformation for humidity • Pre-conditioning better EWGLAM 2005

  13. 4D-VAR feasibility tests (X Yang, N Gustafsson) EWGLAM 2005

  14. Analysis of surface parameters • OI SST and Ice analysis • Ocean Sea Ice SAF data - • New OI snow analysis implemented • QC and bias correction (due to height differences) • Tuning of 2m T och RH analysis (statistics) EWGLAM 2005

  15. Observation Usage • Conventional data • radiosonde launch times • radiosonde drift • comparing observation availability • blacklist • Remote sensing data • AMSU-A • AMSU-B • QuikScat • Radar doppler winds • GPS ZTD • WINDPROFILER EWGLAM 2005

  16. INM test TVN=with ATOVS EWGLAM 2005

  17. Forecast Model - parameterisation • Turbulence (CBR TKE-l) • Much attention to stable case - more mixing at high stability - modified - cut - smooth Ri >1 • Increased roughness - vegetational – orografical ! • Direction of surface stress vector • => filling of lows, reduce 10 m wind • Moist conservative and moist stability version • effect of condensation on stability • Surface fluxes – ratio roughness mom/heat EWGLAM 2005

  18. 10-metre wind direction • All Scandinavian stations • The bias of 10 metre wind seems to be slightly smaller in H636 • In Scandinavia almost zero in H636 • Rms-error very similar EWGLAM 2005

  19. EWGLAM 2005

  20. Ändring av VEG index – jämnare årlig variation EWGLAM 2005

  21. ISBA: snow covering parts of fractions 3 and 4, open land and low vegetation • Features of the snow scheme: • move the snow from fractions 3 and 4 to fraction 6 every timestep • one layer of the snow, with a thermally active layer < 15 cm • water in the snow, which can refreeze • varying albedo and density • mirroring of temperature profile in the ground to assure correct memory

  22. Snow scheme for forest tile EWGLAM 2005

  23. EWGLAM 2005

  24. Model dynamics and predictability • Coupling between SL advection and physics • Semi-Lagrangian mods for orography (T eq.) and interpolations • Development of transparent boundary conditions • Incremental Digital Filter Initialisisation/launching DFI • Ensemble forecasts with HIRLAM • LAMEPS • Multi-model • Ensemble assimilation

  25. Semi-Lagrangian interpolations and T eq. EWGLAM 2005

  26. Transparent Boundary conditions EWGLAM 2005

  27. Embedding • Verification methods - and for meso-scale – SRNWP Workshop(s) • Climate system developments • System - upgrades - Reference test – RCR monitor • Merged HIRLAM/HIRVDA • – new cvs based make system EWGLAM 2005

  28. Trunk, head, releases, merging, andnew releases EWGLAM 2005

  29. Made experiments at 11 and 2.5 km at ECMWF from MF data setsd Interfaced HI -ALADIN coupling and initial state Interfaced some HIRLAM physics (conv/cond, rad, turb started) Climate generation software available Daily runs at DMI, SMHI Introduce AROME system Evaluate HIRLAM physics GP coupling and LBCs Develop meso-scale diagnostics HIRLAM work with ALADIN in 2005 EWGLAM 2005

  30. ALADIN 11km Aladin forecast2nd of July 2003 18 UTC ALADIN-NH 2.5km ALADIN 2.5km EWGLAM 2005

  31. ALADIN at SMHI 11 km EWGLAM 2005

  32. ALADIN NH 2.5 km EWGLAM 2005

  33. EWGLAM 2005

  34. EWGLAM 2005

  35. HI physics improvements Physics diagnostics tools physics interfacing, 2005 HIRLAM modules General Externalised surface ? Meso-scale 3D-VAR Jb, wavelets, ensemble 2005-2006 Meso-scale observations radar winds 2005- reflectivity 2006 - GPS moisture 2005- Surface and SST assimilation IR radiances over land Enhancements of ALADIN NH Map factor, VFE, pressure gradient and orography Large scale coupling Transparent LBCs HIRLAM and ALADIN common research EWGLAM 2005

  36. Summary • Thorough preparations for new HIRLAM • Long term MoU and strategy • More active areas – more resources • Stronger authority and more full time • Collaboration necessary – ALADIN – and operations and climate • Meso-scale model emphasis • Predictability and EPS necessary • HIRLAM developments in DA, physics, SL, LBC, systems • Active work with ALADIN and code collaboration and common research plan EWGLAM 2005

  37. ALADIN NH 2.5 N Sweden-Norway EWGLAM 2005

  38. HIRLAM – ALADIN code collaboration HIRLAM ALADIN III H phys& Data Ass & more Available code but not necessary Shared code Common code ALADIN IV Shared code = LAM dynamics, Pre- and post processing, support, much AROME physics, ARPEGE Physics, some ALADIN/AROME Data Ass., sing. vect., much obs. processing Common code = HIRLAM physics, HIRLAM developm. In AROME physics and Data Ass. and obs. processing Shared code Common code EWGLAM 2005

  39. AROME and ALADIN components • Turbulence CBR – HIRLAM 1d • Externalised ISBA – HIRLAM tiled • (Kain-Fritsch – synoptic scale - HIRLAM) • Town model • Advanced cloud physics • Radiation scheme (Morcrette, ECMWF) • Chemical modelling EWGLAM 2005

  40. HIRLAM components for Meso-scale • Surface scheme – ISBA, snow, soil models • Still mainly horizontally uncoupled – upper air flow couples but flux aggregation ? • Tiled or untiled ? – tiles still exist below 1 km • Externalised, HIRLAM or ALADIN?b • Turbulence scheme – CBR TKE - moist • 1D or 3D ? 1D at 3 km and 3D at 1 km? • Interactions with cloud scheme and convection • Shallow convection ? • Radiation scheme – slopes considered • 3D ? - More advanced – more species • Cloud scheme – more advanced and more species • MSO/SSO • MSO relaxed but SSO needed at 1 km

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