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IS OSH * FORECASTING POSSIBLE ?

IS OSH * FORECASTING POSSIBLE ?. by J.C. ANDRÉ INRS Scientific Directorate France IPTS – Seville – Spain * Occupational Safety and Health at work. Summary

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IS OSH * FORECASTING POSSIBLE ?

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  1. IS OSH* FORECASTING POSSIBLE ? by J.C. ANDRÉINRS Scientific Directorate France IPTS – Seville – Spain * Occupational Safety and Health at work

  2. Summary Efficient prevention technologies are few and far between, and rarely infallible. Account taken of this context, the question that arises, if total resignation is excluded, is one seeking solutions, ways of sharing and mutualisation and, in short, finding ways forward that allow a degree of confidence to be restored between all the actors of work. In this respect, we need to anticipate more and more on the ways of preservating health and safety of workers : this demand linked to the mission of OSH institutes leads to the development of forecasting activities in order to "think the future" or to project the long term into the present, the rule being to imagine "all" the hypotheses.

  3. Several groups at EU level are involved in this general activity ( French National expertises, PEROSH members, Topic Centre "Risk Observatory" acting for the Bilbao Agency,....).The aims of such projects are encouraging initiative ahead of its time, a carrier of collective changes at work accepted (able) by the social body. This means making the experiment "visible", routing them in professional practices and recreating the vision that they carry. First results will be presented linked to the analysis of "heavy trends" which can modify the workers environment and which lead to a more holistic approach of the OSH system. But, the author will also present some constraints induced by the nature of the methodology in use ( to a critical retrospective of the prospective !), interdisciplinary and quality of the expertises, weakness of the connections with innovators, return to practices and the work reality,....

  4. Prevention participates in a myth, in a pool of sense and traditional values that have determined a set of practices and social values… And tomorrow ?

  5. ROLE OF OSH INSTITUTES OSH is a representation field of science and technology used through non excitemental ways, non excluding pro- cesses, emotional for its trusty return to the world of work for improving working conditions. Use of scientific knowledge Collective approaches OSH Institutes are ETHICAL organizations : association between knowledge and society leading to a better well being at work.

  6. EFFECTS ON OSH INSTITUTES • How to advise stakeholders • Responsibility • Independence (political choices, private contracts, …) • Alert on weak-signals • Need for change (avoid dogma…) • Complexity • Interdependences • Anticipation • Debattable use of science (Human control, genetics, nanotechnologies, …) • Irreversible choices (GMO’s, Nuclear plants, globalisation, …) • Time pressure : medias, innovation, employment, financial performance, …)

  7. How to maintain OSH Institutes legitimacy • Independence – « neutrality » • How to explore weak signals • Prospective, forecasting, anticipation • Relationship between science, society at work and OSH • New methodologies for exploring long term effects • Evaluation • Pro-active role in the definition of a more appropriate model for the society at work ? • Knowledge of the social, economical, political conditions in order to optimize pro-active actions.

  8. Any force is able to displace the spherical objet No potential Positive potential Great instability Large activation energy in order to go ouside the energy trap Negative potential Invisibility from outside of any internal actions Closed system Different situations forms

  9. WORRYING TRENDS • Appearance of new risks (which were partly masked by other priorities) of a complex nature • Fear of the very long term effects • Shift from a production society to a leisure and / or information society / knowledge society • Growing individualism • Change to the relationship with work • Social acceptance of risks • Change of time scales (from centuries to months…) • Complexity • Confidence • Ageing

  10. NEW TECHNOLOGIES • Transversal (information technology present everywhere). • Combinational (e.g.: information technology useless in its present state in a device). • Contagious (irrigation of neighbouring technologies). Local innovations and brake on major changes Large technological ruptures

  11. PREVENTION Causal system Retroactive loop system Recursive system (e.g. ESB, etc.) PROBLEM OF TIME BASES / SCHEDULES TO RETAIN THE CONFIDENCE OF THE PARTNERS OF ENTERPRISES ANTICIPATION SO AS TO REDUCE THE GAPS BETWEEN THE COMPLEX ASPIRATIONS OF SOCIETY AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE FIRM

  12. Media coverage • number of new stories • durations • half-life of coverage • Societal impact • socio-economic • politic • employment • citizen • Physical consequences • human • environment • place (EU, other,…) • magnitude of the damage • … • Physical consequences • Individual • follow-up desired • political involvement • intended actions • Social • group mobilization • Risk perception • dread • managerial incompetence • future risk • blame Social amplification of risks

  13. TROUBLES IN THE ANTICIPATION SYSTEM LINKED WITH RESEARCH

  14. Confined / protected research Translation  WORLD Translation  Laboratory Researcher Single « manipulable » Subjects causality The feedback ?  Laboratisation of the World ? Different steps of translation viewed by the researcher (direct sense)

  15. LACK IN ANTICIPATION FROM OSH RESEARCH

  16. Changes in times of OSH recognitions linked with MSD

  17. ACTIONS IN OSH FORECASTING

  18. Topic Center « Risk observatory » • Methodology • Start 2007 ? • PEROSH • Emerging issues ; under progress • National level (EU Level) ; under progress • nano technologies • ICT • working conditions changes (F)

  19. General OSH forecasting methodology Search for the key variables Group project Selection of the principal key Variables - themes Seminar + report Regulation Factual data 1 2 n Emerging risks Benchmarking ………. Appraisal Report Group project Report Scenarios Political choices (outside forecasting project)

  20. FIVE STATEMENTS The facts Increase complexity of the world of work 1 Better knowledge of social perception of risks 2 Overlapping of fields of interest : work / environment / public health 3 Consequences Paradigm of action breakdown - from causal to heuristic - interdisciplinarity - from mastering of risks to precautionary principle - importance of regulations in the future (from regulation to advice) ? 4 Increase of anticipation - « sentinel » network : emerging risks - prevention at the conception stage - networking - better association with the world of work 5

  21. ANTICIPATION QUESTIONS WHICH HAVE TO BE SOLVED What form of work will emerge in the future ? What form of prevention ? How is the gap between the community and the individual to be narrowed ? What are the effects of social alienation on occupational risks ? Long-term effects on health induced by new technologies . Complexity and multifactoriality ? How is information which is both easily perceived and informative to be delivered ? How can confidence in the partners involved in a company be re-established ? Etc...

  22. « Knowledge of the real is a light that always shines somewhere in the shadows » G. BACHELARD

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