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Atms 4650/7650 Long Range Forecasting

Atms 4650/7650 Long Range Forecasting. Anthony R. Lupo Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science 302 E ABNR University of Missouri Columbia, MO 65211. Atms 4650/7650. Long Range Forecasting Atmospheric Science 4650 / 7650 MWF 1:00 – 1:50 pm / 3 credits

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Atms 4650/7650 Long Range Forecasting

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  1. Atms 4650/7650 Long Range Forecasting Anthony R. Lupo Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science 302 E ABNR University of Missouri Columbia, MO 65211

  2. Atms 4650/7650 • Long Range Forecasting • Atmospheric Science 4650 / 7650 • MWF 1:00 – 1:50 pm / 3 credits • Location: 114 ABNR • Class # 26836 • Instructor: Dr. Anthony R. Lupo Office Hours: MWF 11:00 - 12:15 pm • Address: 302 E ABNR Building • Phone: 88-41638 • Fax: 88-45133 • Email: LupoA@missouri.edu • Lupoa1313@pravda.ru • Webpage (personal): web.missouri.edu/~lupoa/author.html • (class): web.missouri.edu/~lupoa/atms4650.html • Grading (policy and procedure): “Straight” • Note: the +/- system will be used since the University asks that this system be applied. • • 97 - 100 A+ 77 - 79 C+ • • 92 - 97 A 72 - 79 C • • 89 - 92 A- 69 - 72 C- • • 87 - 89 B+ 67 - 69 D+ • • 82 - 87 B 62 - 67 D • • 79 - 82 B - 60 - 62 D- • • < 60 F • Grading Distribution: • • Final Exam: 20% • • 2 Tests: 40% • • Homework: 30% (Homework that is late will not be accepted • unless discussed with me before due date). • • Class participation: 10% • Attendance: Should not be an issue at this level! (Every unexcused absence will cost 1 participation point up to 10)

  3. ATMS 4650/7650 • Texts: None required • Suggested references: • • Rohli, R.V., and A.J. Vega, 2012: Climatology, 2nd Ed.. Jones and Bartlett, 466 pp. ISBN: 0 – 7637-3828-X, -or- 978-0 – 7637-3828-0, • • Aguado, E. and J.E. Burt, 2004: Understanding Weather and Climate, 3rd ed. Prentice – Hall. 544 pp. • • Ahrens, C.D., 2003: Meteorology Today: An Introduction to Weather, Climate, and the Environment. 7th Edition Brooks Cole, 544 pp. • • Bluestein, H.B., 1992: Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in the Mid-latitudes. Vol I: Principles of Kinematics and Dynamics. Oxford University Press, 431 pp. • • Diaz, H.F., and V. Markgraf, 2000: El Nino and the Southern Oscillation. Cambridge University Press, 496 pp (ISBN 0 – 521-62138 – 0) • • Holton, J.R., 2004: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, 4th Inter, 535 pp. • • Hess, S.L., 1959: An Introduction to Theoretical Meteorology. Robert E. Krieger Publishing Co., Inc., 362 pp. • • Peixoto, J.P., and A.H. Oort, 1992: The physics of climate. American Institute of Physics, New York, 520 pp. • • Zdunkowski, W., and A. Bott, 2003: Dynamics of the Atmosphere: A course in Theoretical Meteorology. Cambridge University Press, 719 pp. (a good math review) • • Zdunkowski, W., and A. Bott, 2004: Thermodynamics of the Atmosphere: A course in Theoretical Meteorology. Cambridge University Press, 251 pp. • • Various Journal Articles and references! • Course Prerequisites: • Atmospheric Science 4710/7710 and 3600. Calculus through Math 1700, Physics 2760, or their equivalents. • Final Exam: • Will be quasi-comprehensive. Most material will come from the final third of the course. However, important concepts will be tested. The date and time is: • Monday, 9 December 2013 - 10:00 am to 12:00 pm.

  4. ATMS 4650/7650 • Class Calendar • Week 1: 20 22 August  Introduction to Atms 4650 / 7650. Discuss • The three trips. • Week 2: 27 29 Август  Final Project Introductions – We will forecast the winter of 2013-2014 / Summer 2014 and 2014 hurricane season. • Week 3: 03 05 Сентябрь  Labour Day holiday! • Week 4: 10 12 September  • Week 5: 17 19 September  Exam 1 on 20 September covering material • through 19 September. • Week 6: nnnn September  No Class, I’m gone to Montreal Canada • Week 7: 01 03 Октябрь  • Week 8: nnnn October  No Class, I’m gone to UCAR meetings and to Purdue Univ. • Week 9: 15 17 October  • Week 10: 22 24 October  • Week 11: 29 nn October / November  Gone to Annapolis MD • Week 12: 05 07 Ноябрь Test 2 November 8, all material up to 7 November. • Week 13: 12 14 November  • Week 14: 19 21 November  • Week 15: nnnn November  Turkey Day week. Eat, drink, and watch • football. (американский) • Week 16: 03 05 rrДекабрь  Final Project Due / Review for exam? Reading Day is 6 December. • Finals Week: 9 - 13 December, 2013

  5. ATMS 4650/7650 • University Important Dates Calendar • August 19 Classwork begins August 19-26 • Late registration • Late registration fee assessed beginning August 19 • August 26 Last day to register, add or change sections • Aug 27-Sep 23 Drop only • August 30 Last day to change grading option • September 2 Labor Day Holiday - no classes • September 16 Census Day • September 23 Last day to drop course without a grade • October 29 Last day to register for MIZZOUONLINE self-paced (Formerly CDIS) courses for Fall 2013 • Oct. 30–Nov. 22 Early Registration enrollment appointments for Spring 2014 • October 30 1st day to Register for Spring 2014 for MIZZOU ONLINE Self-Paced (Formerly CDIS) • MIZZOU ONLINE Date - http://cdis.missouri.edu/university-calendar.aspx • November 15 Last day to change divisions for Fall 2013 • November 23-30 Thanksgiving recess, beginning close of day Nov. 23 • December 2 Class work resumes - 8 a.m. • *December 2 Last day to withdraw from a course • *December 2 Last day to withdraw from the Term (University) • December 5 Fall semester classwork ends • December 6 Reading Day • December 9 Final examinations begin • December 9-13 Final Examination Week

  6. ATMS 4650/7650 • No finals on Saturday, December 7 or Sunday, December 8 • December 13 Fall semester ends at close of day • December 13-14 Commencement weekend • December 13 Residence Halls close - 8 p.m. • December 17 Grades are due in myZou by 5:00 p.m. • Note: Instructors who do not have their Grades entered and saved in myZou by 5:00 p.m. Dec 17 will have to submit grade change forms for their students. The completed forms with appropriate signatures will need to be submitted to the Office of the University Registrar-125 Jesse Hall.

  7. ATMS 4650/7650 • Syllabus ** • 1. Introductory and Background Material • 2. Current Approach to Seasonal-Range Forecasting • 3. The Basic Statistical Tools • 4. Physical Considerations (Overview of Gen. Circ., Ocean Circ., and Feedbacks). • 5. Teleconnections, El Nino and Southern Oscillation, Madden Julian Oscillation, and QBO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, SSTs and their impact on climate. • 6. Use of Time Series • 7. Analog Synoptic Approach and Regression in Long-Range Forecasting • 8. Blocking in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and Winter Storms • 9. Predictability of the Atmosphere, the work of Lorenz • 10. Climate Variations and Climate Change (Natural and “Anthropogenic”)

  8. ATMS 4650/7650 • Special Statements: • Students with Disabilities: • If you anticipate barriers related to the format or requirements of this course, if you have emergency medical information to share with me, or if you need to make arrangements in case the building must be evacuated, please let me know as soon as possible. • If disability related accommodations are necessary (for example, a note taker, extended time on exams, captioning), please register with the Office of Disability Services (http://disabilityservices.missouri.edu), S5 Memorial Union, 573- 882-4696, and then notify me of your eligibility for reasonable accommodations. For other MU resources for students with disabilities, click on "Disability Resources" on the MU homepage. • This sample statement is posted on the web at http://provost.missouri.edu/faculty/syllabus.html and at http://disabilityservices.missouri.edu/faculty/syllabus.php. • Accommodations: • New this semester! We are implementing an electronic accommodated exam request process that will replace our multi-page Accommodated Examination Request form. We anticipate that this new process will save you and your students considerable time and effort. As with any substantial process change, however, we anticipate many questions and a few hiccups along the way so we are preparing instructions and resources and will have regularly scheduled “help” hours to ease the transition. You should receive additional information about the process in a separate email within the next week. • Also new this semester! Volunteer note takers will now be eligible for a token of appreciation for their service. You will receive additional information about this from those students for whom the accommodation is appropriate. You are also welcome to call or email us for more details. • Should you have questions regarding how best to accommodate a student with a disability, we encourage you to contact the Office of Disability Services at 882-4696, or by email at disabilityservices@missouri.edu. • Tips and resources: • Blackboard includes a number of features that improve accessibility for students with disabilities. We encourage you to become familiar with those features and make use of them as you design or revise your course. Information about those features can be found at http://blackboard.com/accessibility. • Academic Dishonesty (Reference: MU sample statement and policy guidelines) • Any student who commits an act of academic dishonesty is subject to disciplinary action. • The procedures for disciplinary action will be in accordance with the rules and regulations of the University governing disciplinary action. • Academic honesty is fundamental to the activities and principles of a university. All members of the academic community must be confident that each person's work has been responsibly and honorably required, developed, and presented. Any effort to gain an advantage not given to all students is dishonest whether or not the effort is successful. The academic community regards academic dishonesty as an extremely serious matter, with serious consequences that range from probation to expulsion. When in doubt about plagiarism, paraphrasing, quoting, or collaboration, consult the instructor. In cases of suspected plagiarism, the instructor is required to inform the provost. The instructor does not have discretion in deciding whether to do so. • It is the duty of any instructor who is aware of an incident of academic dishonesty in his/her course to report the incident to the provost and to inform his/her own department chairperson of the incident. Such report should be made as soon as possible and should contain a detailed account of the incident (with supporting evidence if appropriate) and indicate any action taken by the instructor with regard to the student's grade. The instructor may include an opinion of the seriousness of the incident and whether or not he/she considers disciplinary action to be appropriate. The decision as to whether disciplinary proceedings are instituted is made by the provost. It is the duty of the provost to report the disposition of such cases to the instructor concerned. • Sample Statement for Intellectual Pluralism • The University community welcomes intellectual diversity and respects student rights. Students who have questions or concerns regarding the atmosphere in this class (including respect for diverse opinions) may contact the Departmental Chair or Divisional Director; the Director of the Office of Students Rights and Responsibilities (http://osrr.missouri.edu/); or the MU Equity Office (http://equity.missouri.edu/), or by email at equity@missouri.edu. All students will have the opportunity to submit an anonymous evaluation of the instructor(s) at the end of the course. • Faculty allowing recording • University of Missouri System Executive Order No. 38 lays out principles regarding the sanctity of classroom discussions at the university. The policy is described fully in Section 200.015 of the Collected Rules and Regulations. In this class, students may make audio or video recordings of course activity unless specifically prohibited by the faculty member. However, the redistribution of audio or video recordings of statements or comments from the course to individuals who are not students in the course is prohibited without the express permission of the faculty member and of any students who are recorded. Students found to have violated this policy are subject to discipline in accordance with provisions of Section 200.020 of the Collected Rules and Regulations of the University of Missouri pertaining to student conduct matters. • Faculty not allowing recording • University of Missouri System Executive Order No. 38 lays out principles regarding the sanctity of classroom discussions at the university. The policy is described fully in Section 200.015 of the Collected Rules and Regulations. In this class, students may not make audio or video recordings of course activity, except students permitted to record as an accommodation under Section 240.040 of the Collected Rules. All other students who record and/or distribute audio or video recordings of class activity are subject to discipline in accordance with provisions of Section 200.020 of the Collected Rules and Regulations of the University of Missouri pertaining to student conduct matters. • Those students who are permitted to record are not permitted to redistribute audio or video recordings of statements or comments from the course to individuals who are not students in the course without the express permission of the faculty member and of any students who are recorded. Students found to have violated this policy are subject to discipline in accordance with provisions of Section 200.020 of the Collected Rules and Regulations of the University of Missouri pertaining to student conduct matters. • .

  9. ATMS 4650/7650 • This course is designed to present state-of-the-art knowledge to upper-level undergraduate and graduate students on the subject of long-range forecasting. • Anderson et al. (1999, BAMS, 1349-1362), Barnston et al. (1994, 2005 BAMS) • IPCC 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013 WMO Scientific Assessments • NIPCC 2009, 2013 Scientific Assessments • www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

  10. ATMS 4650/7650 • 30 day

  11. ATMS 4650/7650 • 90 Day

  12. ATMS 4650/7650 • Drought outlook

  13. ATMS 4650/7650 • Tornadoes in 2013

  14. ATMS 4650/7650 • Products as of yet are still probabilistic. How much chance is there for above “normal” and below “normal” forecasts. Divided up as “equal” chances or approximately one-half standard deviation. • Exception: http://weather.missouri.edu/gcc • The material will be presented more-or-less descriptively. We'll focus on the the physical understanding of the theatmopsheric circulation in relation to long-range evolution of the circulation pattern (General Circulaton), and practical approaches to the practice of long-range forecasting.

  15. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • While the subject matter is on the cutting edge of meteorology, our understanding of meteorology is still somewhat primitive. Forecasting the atmospheric circulation is a problem that is at least 100 years old! • There is no textbook for this course as of yet, so the texts will be reviews. • The goal of this course is to provide you with the basic tools to be able to do your own long-range forecasting with a certain level of useful skill using standard synoptic observations.

  16. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • Definitions of "long-range" as used in thisclass; one month to one year. • Recall, like many definitions in meteorology, this term can be somewhat subjective. These depend on your point of view 'synoptician' or 'large-scale' (e.g. synoptic meteorology; me vs. Market). • In synoptic circles: short range forecasting 1 - 3 days; Medium Range 3 - 5; long-range about 7 - 10 days.

  17. ATMS 4650/7650 • In seasonal or general circulation circles we will state that; • medium range forecasting means: one week to one month. • Extended range: beyond a week and out to 3 months. • Long-range: 1 month to one year. (Seasonal!)

  18. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • Climate - scale: beyond one-year to 10+ MY • What is possible today? • Synoptic: 14 day “wall”, Accuweather 25 day and 45 day forecasts?

  19. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • In the Long Range outlooks we can go out about 18 months. • there are 3 – 5 year “forecasts” made, based on ENSO. We are experimenting with this. • 10 – 20 year “skillful” outlooks possible? (Lupo and Johnston, 2000, hurricane prediction)

  20. ATMS 4650/7640 • Some Definitions: • Weather  is the day to day state of the atmosphere, in terms of state variables and maybe winds, clouds, precip, etc. • Climate  is the long term mean (usually taken to be 30 –years) of the atmospheric state together with higher order statistics (variance, stdev.), and description of extremes. • Climate change  Is defined as changes in the long-term means OR higher order statistics OR description of extremes.

  21. ATMS 8675309 • An Asside: • Why is long-range forecasting important? Each scale has it's own importance, however, long-range forecasting is important for various socio-economic activities (farming, building, living), national and corporate policies (where to put or allocate resources), decision and operation and planning, (farm practices). • There are companies out there that specialize in LRF and it’s applications. Utilicorp is one, and “Dynapred” here in KCOU is another.

  22. ATMS 4650/7650 • W/r/t national policies, an issue that's tangent involves climate scale forecasting in which policy is made based on decadal and century range projections, the most obvious issue here is 'anthropogenic global warming' (the Kyoto treaty – and successors). • A few more points to be made and definitions: long-range forecasting deals with the problem of forecasting the general circulation. (Mostly stochastic, or statistical in nature).

  23. ATMS 4650/7650 • Deterministic a reversible process, in a deterministic system, laws of motion are well-known and can be easily applied to make a forecast. Could be linear or cyclic. Often Newtonian. Example: • Irreversible process a process that is sensitively dependent on the initial conditions. Laws of motion are not well know and/or not easily applied. Often Hamiltonian.

  24. ATMS 4650/7650 • A few more points: • Short-range weather forecasting employs numerical models of the global or general circulation. (deterministic solns. to primitive equations e.g. NGM, ETA, MRF). In forecasting for, say the mid-west, we watch the evolution of the circulation over N. America. • For long range forecasting, even a forecast for the mid-west requires us to forecast the general (global) circulation. The time scales here are 2 weeks to annual! Without talking about the circulations over the North Pacific or even Asia, there is no way to make a useful long-range forecast for the mid-west. Atmospheric predictability using models – we can only go out to 2 weeks.

  25. ATMS 4650/7650 • The concept of teleconnections will be useful in this context, e.g., the PNA, or Pacific North American pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We'll discuss teleconnections later. • Thus, one cannot have an intelligent conversation on long range forecasting without discussing the concept of atmospheric blocking! (See Lupo et al. 2008, Lupo et al. 2013)

  26. ATMS 4650/7650 • Again, our current understanding of the atmosphere and modelling ability make long-range forecasting using models nearly impossible (again statistical methods useful). • Ideally, a GCM would be useful for forecasting. Numerical wx prediction has been in use operationally since 1955 (known w/ first model Charney, Fjortoft, and Elliassen back in 1950).

  27. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • Forecastability of El Nino: See Federov et al. (2003) BAMS • Energy

  28. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • NWP cannot be extended to long range for the following reasons: • 1) current GCMs are based on primitive equations which describe the state of atmosphere out to two weeks. In the long-range, we don't have enough physics in the model (e.g., atms. oc. interactions) • 2) Numerics: methods are only an approximation of reality. (show finite difference, and Galerkin methods).

  29. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • Finite Differencing  • Galerkin Methods 

  30. ATMS 4650/7650 • 3) limitation of predictability in GCM due to character of atmosphere (as a chaotic dynamical system), and this includes the lack of observations (resolution, resolution, resolution)! • We can improve the situation if we couple a fully functional dynamic ocean model (along w/ physics for atms.-ocean interactions), this is occurring. • Oceans (upper) have a characteristic time-scale of weeks to years. Oceanic states (or forecasts) can help define (future) atmospheric states.

  31. ATMS 4650 /7650 • Oceans (upper) have a characteristic time-scale of weeks to years. Oceanic states (or forecasts) can help define (future) atmospheric states (ATMS a servant to the underlying surface on these time scales.)

  32. ATMS 4650/7650 • Problem: • The atmosphere and oceans  scale mismatches (show synoptics for each). • These are important problems being worked on now, and look for developments to occur over the next ten years.

  33. ATMS 4650/7650 • The “Tale of the Tape” ATMS OCEAN Space Scale 2000 – 6000 km 100 – 400 km Time Scale 1 – 7 days 1 – 7 weeks

  34. ATMS 4650/7650 • Again, for now, practical long-range forecasts are statistical and empirical in nature, but these must be at least consistent with the current understanding of the gen. circ. • Conversely, developments in long-range forecasting will help our understanding of the gen. circ. and how it works. • (This synergistic approach is similar to the approach of synopticians from the Bergen school through Rossby: 1910's to 1950's, which culminated NWP). Leetmaa (2003) BAMS

  35. ATMS 4650/7650 • Now, we have defined climate, to see long-range forecasting problems in the context of climate is very important, because: • 1) we deal with atms. beyond deterministic range (2 wks.) of NWP, the physical processes are more relevant for a climate dynamics course, rather than synoptic dynamics. • 2) In the empirical forecasts the predictands (the object being predicted) are statistical properties such as monthly temp, seasonal temp, or precip. Again, the realm of climate dynamics is more relevant rather than atmos. dynamics. • 3) In doing the empirical forecasting we frequently use long-term (10 - 40 years) data bases to assess or predict current state of atmosphere:

  36. ATMS 4650/7650 • Current Approach to Seasonal Range Forecasting • Barriers to long-range predictability: Atmosphere is a chaotic system (intransitivity of atmosphere) • If for specific time scales, the internal climate system behaves as if it has ‘forgotten its past’, and responds primarily to external forcing then it can be considered to be almost in the state of equilibration.

  37. ATMS 4650/7650 • External forcing can be outside earth atmosphere. system, or be forcing from an internal variable of longer time-response (inertial time scale) sub-systems forcing on another sub-system (e.g. SST forcing) with a shorter time response. (e.g., if considering synoptic-scale, then ice sheets, oceans, and everything is 'external').

  38. ATMS 4650/7650 • Earth Atmopshere system is composed of 1) atmosphere, 2) biosphere, 3) oceans, 4) lithosphere, 5) cryosphere • The earth-atmosphere system, courtesy of Dr. Richard Rood. (http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/class/aoss605/lectures/)

  39. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • Thus the climate system is a boundary value problem, this is different from weather forecasting with is primarily an initial value problem (boundaries there too). These definitions allow us to define climate in terms of ensemble means and variability of each sub-system independently. • If any initial state always leads to the same near equilibrium climatic state (same equil. properties), then the system is transitive (climate folks) or ergodic (geo. folks!).

  40. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • Transitivity:

  41. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • If instead there are two or more diff. states with properties different that result from different initial conditions, then the system is intransitive (this system: pack it up and go home w/r/t forecasting).

  42. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • If there are different subsets of statistical properties, which a transitive system assumes during its evolution from different initial states, through long but finite periods of time, the system is almost intransitive. In this case, the climate state, beginning from any initial condition will always converge to the same state eventually, but go through periods w/ distinctly different climatic regimes. This is best representation of climate system. (Ice ages?)

  43. ATMS 4650/7650 • Almost intransitive.

  44. ATMS 4650/7650 • Vascillation Lorenz (1960,1963) and beyond

  45. ATMS 4650/7650 • Large-scale atms. displays 2 fundamental modes, which change every 3 – 11 days. • 2 to three weeks is limit of predictability basically because of "vascillation or "regime'" shift! • Also atms. is a "short response" sub-system" of the climate;

  46. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • Oceans divided up by depth  Above the thermocline, mid-depth, and deep oceans. • Above the thermocline  days – KY • Mid-Depth  months – MY • Deep Oceans  decades – MY • KY = 1000’s of years, MY = Millions of years

  47. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • Thermocline:

  48. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • Cryosphere we can also divide up by depth  • Surface Ice and sea ice  days – KY • Mid-Depth  months – MY • Deep glaciers  decades – MY • KY = 1000’s of years, MY = Millions of years

  49. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • SST's are an example, the ocean has a "long memory" due to high heat capacity). Most long range variations in the atmosphere are in response to such heating. (ENSO) • Heat capacity of the oceans is huge: Cpo (~4189 J/kg) >> Cpl or Cpatms (1004.63 J /kg) • There are joint models used out there, for example both at NCEP (NWS) and at NASA's Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheres.

  50. ATMS 4650 / 7650 • SST's caught our attention, especially during the ENSO of 1982 – 1983, and then the Summer of 1993. This great event focused our attention on ENSO related variability. • ENSO is the beginning and end of LRF. ENSO is the primary mode of internannual variability! See for example Changnon et a;. (1999) BAMS, Mokhov et al. (2004). Kelsey et al. (2007), Lupo et al. (2008).

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