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Objectives:

Global Oceanic Precipitation Variations in 2006 Pingping Xie, John E. Janowiak Robert Joyce, and Phillip A. Arkin * Climate Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP * ESSIC / UMD. Objectives:. Description of global oceanic precipitation variations in 2006

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Objectives:

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  1. Global Oceanic Precipitation Variations in 2006Pingping Xie, John E. JanowiakRobert Joyce, and Phillip A. Arkin*Climate Prediction CenterNOAA/NWS/NCEP* ESSIC / UMD

  2. Objectives: Description of global oceanic precipitation variations in 2006 Examination of global oceanic precipitation and evaporation distributions in existing observations and their uncertainties

  3. Monitoring Tools in CPC CMAP CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (Xie and Arkin 1997) Precipitation defined by merging gauge observations with satellite estimates from multiple sources Monthly / pentad analyses from 1979 CAMS-OPI Streamlined real-time version of monthly CMAP Over ocean, precipitation estimates derived from OLR Over land, analysis defined by combining gauge with satellite observation CMORPH CPC Morphing technique Combined use of satellite microwave and infrared (IR) observations High-resolution (8km / 30min) precipitation analysis over the globe Available real-time from December 2002

  4. Precipitation Variations in 2006 Derived from CAMS-OPI estimates Annual mean of 2.812 mm/ day (1026.4Kg/m2) Heavier than normal rainfall east of the maritime Continent Large negative anomaly over eastern Indian ocean Deficit precipitation over north Atlantic

  5. Evolution of ENSO Derived from CAMS-OPI estimates Weak El Nino conditions developed during mid-2006 and lasted through the rest of the year Weak precipitation anomaly restricted over western Pacific

  6. MJO Activities Derived from GPCP pentad analysis (Xie et al. 2003) Weak MJO activities during 2006 Some MJO events of medium intensity during the end of 2006

  7. Hurricane Activities Over the Atlantic ocean diminished in 2006 (9/5) Over east Pacific one of the strongest in recent years (19/11)

  8. Hurricane John (2006)

  9. Examining Oceanic Fresh Water Flux Objectives : To document the mean climatology of global oceanic precipitation, evaporation and fresh water flux over global oceans using existing observation data sets; To get insight into the uncertainties in the definition of the mean climatology of fresh water budget using these data sets Precipitation Data Sets CMAP GPCP Version 2 TRMM 3B31 (PR/TMI combined) Evaporation data Sets GSSTF Version 2 J-OFURO HOAPS Version 3 NOC Version 1.1a

  10. Distribution of Annual ClimatologyPrecipitation Similar patterns of spatial distribution Differences in magnitude over ocean Largest differences over ocean around Maritime Continent

  11. Uncertainties in Annual ClimatologyPrecipitation Largest uncertainties (standard deviation among observations) over ITCZ and high latitudes Standard Deviation about 10% of the mean values

  12. Distribution of Annual ClimatologyEvaporation Similar patterns of spatial distribution, especially the three satellite-based data sets Differences in magnitude over ocean Largest differences over oceanic dry zones

  13. Uncertainties in Annual ClimatologyEvaporation Largest uncertainties over oceanic dry zones south / north of ITCZ and over oceans around the Maritime Continent Standard Deviation about 10% of the mean values

  14. Uncertainties in Annual ClimatologyE - P Large uncertainties over most of the tropical oceans Standard Deviation about 10% - 20% of the mean values Less uncertainties in zonal mean

  15. Sources of the Uncertainties Lack of in-situ observations over oceans Imperfect satellite-based estimates (precipitation, wind, ..) Differences in objective techniques to create the analyses

  16. Summary: • Precipitation variations in 2006 are characterized by evolution of a weak El Nino, and negative precipitation anomalies over east Indian ocean • Climatology of global oceanic fresh water flux has been examined using observation from multiple sources. Uncertainties in defining the climatology has been explored; • Work is underway to trace down the sources of the uncertainties and to refine the oceanic precipitation analyses

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