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The Future of China

The Future of China. Party Economy Political Development. 1. The Party. Ideology. Confucius Mao Deng 221 BC-1911 1949-76 1978--. Legitimacy Under Deng Xiaoping Theory. “socialist market economy” Focus on economic development (1982 speech) Nationalism

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The Future of China

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  1. The Future of China • Party • Economy • Political Development

  2. 1. The Party

  3. Ideology Confucius Mao Deng 221 BC-1911 1949-76 1978--

  4. Legitimacy Under Deng Xiaoping Theory • “socialist market economy” • Focus on economic development(1982 speech) • Nationalism • China’s power

  5. Lessons of 1989-1991 (official in 2004)(lessons of collapse of Communism in Europe and Soviet Union) • Economic Reform • Political reform • Adaptive Party

  6. 15th Party Congress 1997 • “Hold High The Great Banner of Deng Xiaoping Theory for an All-Round Advancement of the Cause of Building Socialism with Chinese Characteristics into the 21st Century.” • Deng Xiaoping Theory becomes official

  7. 16th Party Congress • Elevation of Jiangism: • Three Represents • Advanced culture • Advanced forces of production • The full mass of the Chinese people

  8. 16th Party Congress 2002(for reference only) Politburo Standing Committee Changes 3rd Generation 1997-2002 • General Secretary Jiang Zemin (President) as leader Jiang is both a reformer and conservative • Li Peng (Chair NPC) leader of conservative faction • Zhu Rongji (Premier) a leader of reformer faction • Li Ruihuan, pro-reform • Hu Jintao, middle of the road, to hedge his bets • Wei Jianxing • Li Langing

  9. 4th Generation PSC: 2002(for reference only) 4th Generation 2002-2007 • General Secretary Hu Jintao (President) (chosen by Deng Xiaoping as Jiang’s successor) • Wu Bangguo (Chair NPC) (ally of Jiang) • Wen Jiabao (Premier) (ally of Hu) • Jia Qinglin (strong ally of Jiang) • Zeng Qinghong (strongest ally of Jiang, but seems to have become more independent in power) • Huang Ju (Vice premier) (strong ally of Jiang) • Wu Guanzheng (ally of Jiang) • Li Changchun (ally of Jiang) • Luo Gan (protege of Li Peng)

  10. 4th Generation PSC 2002-2012 4th Generation 16th Party Congress 2002 4th Generation 17th Party Congress 2007 HuJintao Wu Bangguo WenJiabao JiaQinglin Li Changchun Xi Jinping**** Li Keqiang*** He Guoqiang Zhou Yongkang • General Secretary Hu Jintao (President) • Wu Bangguo (Chair NPC) • Wen Jiabao (Premier) • Jia Qinglin • Zeng Qinghong • Huang Ju • Wu Guanzheng • Li Changchun • Luo Gan

  11. 4th Generation to 5th Generation 4th Generation 17th Party Congress 2007 5th Generation 18th Party Congress 2012 Xi Jinping Li Keqiang Zhang Dejiang Yu Zhengsheng Liu Yunshan Wang Qishan Zhang Gaoli • Hu Jintao • Wu Bangguo • Wen Jiabao • Jia Qinglin • Li Changchun • Xi Jinping • Li Keqiang • He Guoqiang • Zhou Yongkang

  12. Party Decentralization? • Intraparty Democracy • Democratic Centralism • Building Political Democracy, White Paper • Regional Party Power • Challenges to the CPC? • Falun Gong 1999

  13. 2. The Economy • Can economic growth last forever? • Recession • depression • What happens when the economy slows down?

  14. Business Cycle Boom-Bust cycle Self-regulating

  15. Economics and Politics economic political economic political growth support downturn change

  16. Economic Collapse? The Great Depression

  17. Political Impact of the Great Depression advanced welfare state (Europe, N. Am.) economic political World collapse upheaval War II fascism (Germany, Japan, Italy)

  18. Political Impact of the 1997 East Asian Crash Incumbents lose: S. Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines economic political Soft authoritarian crisis upheaval survival Malaysia, Singapore Dictator overthrown:Indonesia

  19. Internal migration Corruption SOEs Table from: Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry, (Japan): “Who Owns China's State-owned Enterprises - Toward establishment of effective corporate Governance”: http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/china/06072801.html Real Economic Problems

  20. The Good News From: World Bank, Fighting Poverty: Findings and Lessons from China’s Success; http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/0,,contentMDK:20634060~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:469382,00.html Inequality in China

  21. Inequality in China The Bad News From: World Bank, Fighting Poverty: Findings and Lessons from China’s Success; http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/0,,contentMDK:20634060~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:469382,00.html

  22. 3. Political Development

  23. Political Stability • Priority on stability • Village Elections • Social Unrest (“mass group incidents”)

  24. The Questions? • Can you create politically agnostic capitalists? • How long can people remain politically agnostic? • Can nationalism hold the nation together? • The rise in China’s power • Taiwan? • Island disputes with Japan?

  25. Nationalism and Legitimacy Taiwan • White Paper--The Taiwan Question and Reunification of China • White Paper--The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue • Hu’s Six Proposals (2008) (all for reference only)

  26. China’s Global Power • Foreign Policy Principles • Anti-hegemonism • mulipolarity • National Day 2009: 60th Anniversary (for reference only)

  27. Two Models for China’s Future Singapore Taiwan “Guided Democracy” Democratic Transition Soft Authoritarianism

  28. Singapore as a model • Internal Security Act • Human Rights Watch report • Lee Kuan Yew

  29. Democratic Transition Model Economic freedoms demands for Economic growth political freedom Growth of middle class Exposure to diverse ideas Exposure to middle class and elites of Liberal-democracies Wealth in private hands Time

  30. Taiwan and South KoreaDemocratic Transitions in 1980s

  31. Democracy is not as boring as you think

  32. Introducing Legislation

  33. Filibuster

  34. Taipei 101

  35. Democratic Transition Model Economic freedoms demands for Economic growth political freedom Growth of middle class Exposure to diverse ideas Exposure to middle class and elites of Liberal-democracies Wealth in private hands Time

  36. Democratic Transition Model Economic freedoms demands for Economic growth political freedom Growth of middle class Exposure to diverse ideas Exposure to middle class and elites of Liberal-democracies Wealth in private hands Time economic/political crisis

  37. Scenarios • Peaceful evolution • Political Economic Crisis • Another crackdown • CPC debate leads to reform • Revolution from above • CPC becomes two parties • CPC debate leads to its collapse • CPC debate leads to hardliners imprisoning pragmatists: rollback

  38. Priorities • Stability • Economic Growth • Chinese Power

  39. Xi Jinping (new #1, 2012)

  40. The Next Generation’s World • Left vs. right • Microblog: Sina Weibo • More Freedom of speech? • Lesson of Bo Xilai • Ex-Party chief Chongqing

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