Enrollment and Facility Use Committee

1. Enrollment and Facility Use Committee Report to Board of Education January 10, 2012

2. Charge Statement and Focus Questions Strategic Plan Action Plan 4.B.1.c: Develop a build plan based on up-to-date forecasts that will inform SPLOST and other revenue needs. How might we accurately predict the enrollment trends for the future? How might our buildings best be used to plan for that uncertain future?

3. See: What Research Tells Us Since 2007 = 31% growth 12% 7% 7% 1%

4. See: What Research Tells Us Research = no refereed journals • Our own Enrollment Data • Other Data Sources • Pre-K wait lists • Homebuilding Data • Census Data

5. See: What Research Tells Us Enrollment Calculation for Kindergarten Enrollment Calculation for Other Grade Levels Example: grade one

6. See: What Research Tells Us Two-year Cohort Ratio One-year Cohort Ratio

7. See: What Research Tells Us One-year Cohort Ratio

8. See: What Research Tells Us Pre-Kindergarten Data Pre-K enrollment zones are a valid predictor of Kindergarten enrollment zones. 2011-2012 Pre-Kindergarten Wait List 53 residents 8 courtesy tuition 2010-2011 Pre-Kindergarten Wait List 40 residents 7 courtesy tuition

9. See: What Research Tells Us Homebuilding Data Source: Amanda Thompson, City of Decatur

10. See: What Research Tells Us 2010 Census Data

11. See: What Research Tells Us Growth of Young Learners For 0-5 population, used proxy of Kindergarten growth from 2000-2011; for 5-9 year olds assumed growth in 1st-3rd grades from 2000-2011

12. See: What Other Districts and Communities Tell Us Using current grade level enrollments and placing those enrollments into the next grade level Using one-year cohort ratios combined with qualitative interviews Discovery: city birth rate data available from Department of Public Health

13. See: What Our Stakeholders Tell Us Survey and Focus Group with Realtors • Oakhurst could be 33% through transition • South side has higher density • South side attracts more families with younger children • Summer is busiest move-in time

14. Recommendations Assumptions: • CSD will continue to transfer students between K-3 buildings that cannot manage their zoned enrollments. • Class sizes for 1st grade 2012-2013 will resemble the class sizes for Kindergarten 2011-2012. • One trailer would stay at each school: Oakhurst and Winnona Park. • Candidates for paying tuition for Kindergarten and 1st grade will not be informed of their status until July 11, 2012, thus allowing summer resident registrations to subside. The short-term overall recommendation of the Enrollment Committee is to not re-zone or open up additional buildings for the 2012-2013 school year.

15. Recommendations Three Categories • Processes to improve projections • Strategies to accommodate growth • Educational opportunities for the community

16. Recommendations • Processes to improve projections Recommendation 1a: Develop an annual process involving stakeholders to validate enrollment projection formula with other data sources. Recommendation 1b: Institute a Pre-Registration tracking process on CSD website. Recommendation 1c: Strategically publicize Pre-Registration tracking process with realtors and City of Decatur.

17. Recommendations • Strategies to accommodate growth Recommendation 2a: Consider how College Heights and Westchester could serve some birth-grade 3 students.

18. Recommendations Recommendation 2: Summary Matrix • Strategies to accommodate growth

19. Recommendations FAVE was designed in 2009-2010, a year of 1% enrollment growth following years of 4% and 7% growth respectively. At that time, it was not foreseeable that years of 7% and 12% growth respectively were to come. • Strategies to accommodate growth Recommendation 2b: Begin addition to FAVE to accommodate system-wide growth

20. Recommendations • Educational opportunities for the community Recommendation 3a: Host Enrollment Zone Information night.