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Use of Decision DiagramMes with Seasonal Outlooks to choose Agricultural Interventions

Use of Decision DiagramMes with Seasonal Outlooks to choose Agricultural Interventions. Sue Walker Professor in Agrometeorology Dept Soil, Crop & Climate Sciences. Construct decision trees for climate sensitive on-farm decisions

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Use of Decision DiagramMes with Seasonal Outlooks to choose Agricultural Interventions

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  1. Use of Decision DiagramMeswith Seasonal Outlooks to chooseAgricultural Interventions Sue Walker Professor in Agrometeorology Dept Soil, Crop & Climate Sciences

  2. Construct decision trees for climate sensitive on-farm decisions Maakbesluitnemingsdiagrame (“decision trees”) virklimaatsensitieveplaasbesluite

  3. Using Scenarios in Planning Climate forecasts are a potentially valuable tool for many planning situations. But the probabilistic nature of climate forecasts means that we need to use special planning strategies. One such strategy is scenario building. Scenario building constructs scenarios of what the future might be like by combining information on (1) the current situation, (2) the range of possible climate outcomes, and (3) the variety of decisions we can make. The scenarios help us appreciate the consequences of any potential decisions, and therefore they can help us to choose the most appropriate ones. About this guide applies to a broad range of planning situations, but actual scenarios that are built are unique to each situation. This guide takes you step-by-step thru process of scenario building with climate forecasts for your situation. Each step includes a short description of the you need to consider, information you need to gather, & where you can go for more information. Using this guide You can go through the steps in guide in two ways. Under 'Principles', you will find a general description of each step. This is a good place to start. To see examples of the steps for specific situations, go to 'Cases'. This will open a new frame in your window with a menu of illustrative case studies. Once you select a case study, you can see and navigate through the steps in both the case study and the general principles at the same time. To build the scenarios, you might also want to look up some climate information for your area on the IRI web site. Under 'Tutorials' you will find four tutorials on finding specific information on the web site and customizing it to your requirements. For your convenience, we have put the tutorials and the IRI web site side by side, so that you can try the instructions as you go through the tutorial.

  4. Gebruik van Scenarios in bePlanning Klimaatvoorspelings is waardevolhelpmiddelsvitbaiebeplanningsituasies. Maar hulle is gegee as waarskynlikhede van klimaatvoorspelingswatbetekendat U moetspesiaalbeplanning strategies gebruik. Eentipestrategie is scenario-bou. In scenario-bou – U moet scenarios uitdinkwatkaninligtingkombineeroordietoekoms (1) die hudigesituasie; (2) ‘n reeks van mootlikeklimaatuitkoms, en (3) die omgang van besluite U kanmaak. Die scenarios help one om die konsekwente van potentiallebesluitetesien, en daaromkanhulle one help om die regtekeusetemaak. About this guide applies to a broad range of planning situations, but actual scenarios that are built are unique to each situation. This guide takes you step-by-step thru process of scenario building with climate forecasts for your situation. Each step includes a short description of the you need to consider, information you need to gather, & where you can go for more information. Using this guide You can go through the steps in guide in two ways. Under 'Principles', you will find a general description of each step. This is a good place to start. To see examples of the steps for specific situations, go to 'Cases'. This will open a new frame in your window with a menu of illustrative case studies. Once you select a case study, you can see and navigate through the steps in both the case study and the general principles at the same time. To build the scenarios, you might also want to look up some climate information for your area on the IRI web site. Under 'Tutorials' you will find four tutorials on finding specific information on the web site and customizing it to your requirements. For your convenience, we have put the tutorials and the IRI web site side by side, so that you can try the instructions as you go through the tutorial.

  5. General Principles • What are my goals? • How does climate matter to me? • What choices do I have to respond to climate forecasts? • What is the climate going to be like? • What are potential impacts of climate on me, given a climate forecast? • What decisions should I use to increase odds of an outcome that is preferred?

  6. AlgemeneBeginsels • Wat is my doelwitte? • Hoekom is klimaatbelangrikvir my? • Wattekeuse het ekomtereageerivmklimaatvoorspellings? • Hoe gaan die weerlyk? • Wat is die potensiaalimpakte van klimaat op my, met ‘n sekerevoorspeling? • Wattebesluitekanekgebruikom my kansevir ‘n goeieresultaatbetertemaak?

  7. Decision Trees – principle format • Outcomes of decisions depend on both decisions under our control and events, or states of nature, outside our control. • One way to represent the relationship between decision options, uncertain events and outcomes is through a decision tree

  8. Besluitnemingsdiagrame = Decision Trees • Uitkoms van besluite is volgens besluite onder ons eie beheer EN die buite ons beheer. • Ons kan die verhouding tussen opsies, onsekeheid & uitkoms met ‘n besluitdiagrame uitstip

  9. Decision Trees - details A decision tree can help you map out decision options and uncertain events so that you can see the range of possible outcomes from the choices you could make. Remember that for each potential decision, a range of possible outcomes follows from the uncertain events in question. As you can see, decision trees represent the decisions, states of nature, and outcomes as discrete--that is, there are only a limited number of options (such as "to buy or not to buy"). In reality, most decisions, states of nature, and outcomes are continuous, rather than discrete. For example, you could "not buy", "buy a little", "buy a lot", or anything in between. As the climate in the future is uncertain and out of our control (generally), it is represented in decision trees as "uncertain events or states of nature". Climate itself is continuous, but forecasts of climate are generally categorical, so they usually fit well into decision trees because they refer to distinct events: for example, rainfall being either above average, average, or below average; or El Niño or no El Niño. Above is a very brief description of the concept of decision trees and its qualitative uses, but there is much more to decision trees than that. Their main use is to think explicitly and quantitatively about decision options and uncertain outcomes. But this theory is beyond the scope of this tutorial.

  10. Besluitnemingsdiagrame - details ‘n besluitnemingsdiagramekan one help om die opsies & onsekerheiduittestipsodatons die reeks uitkomskan seen volgens die keuses. Onthoudatvirelkepoteniaalbesluit, daar is ‘n reeks uitkoms in gevolg van die onsekerheid van die weer of onbeheerbaarfaktore Vanaf die besluitdiagrame – die besluite, “states of nature”, en uitkoms is spesifiek, daar is ‘n beperkte nr. opsies (soos “omtekoop OF nietekoopnie"). In werklikheid, die meestebesluite, “states of nature”, en uitkoms is ‘n kontinuum, & niespesifieknie. b.v. jykan "niekoopnie” OF “koop ‘n bietjie”, OF “koopbaie", OF enigeietstussen in. Omdat die klimaat van die future is uncertain and out of our control (generally), it is represented in decision trees as "uncertain events or states of nature". Climate itself is continuous, but forecasts of climate are generally categorical, so they usually fit well into decision trees because they refer to distinct events: for example, rainfall being either above average, average, or below average; or El Niño or no El Niño. Above is a very brief description of the concept of decision trees and its qualitative uses, but there is much more to decision trees than that. Their main use is to think explicitly and quantitatively about decision options and uncertain outcomes. But this theory is beyond the scope of this tutorial.

  11. Start Select region: Ehler’s Climatic Zones 4616, 4614, 5714, 6714, 7714, 7725, 8815, 8825 Are resources available? Total budget (seeds, seedlings, fertilizer, water, labourers, land preparation, etc) Expertise (agricultural management practices) Land (35ha, 50ha, 70ha or greater) Labour (number, experience) Implements (Own, rental) Yes What is the seasonal forecast? No Is it? NN-NN, AN-NN, AN-AN NN-AN, AN-BN Is it? BN-NN, BN-AN AN-BN, BN-BN Yes Yes Have you selected suitable options? • short, medium or long cultivar, • early or late planting, • sequential planting, • high plant density • high fertiliser, • frequent weeding, • good top dressing, • variety of crops, etc. Have you selected suitable options? • drought tolerant crops • short to medium cultivars, • medium to low plant density • planting dates early • minimise fertilizer application, • control weeds frequently, Yes Yes Plant Seek alternative livelihood Advisory display for suitable options Examples from GuguZuma-Netshiukhwi Input variables used for look-up decision support table for south-western Free State farmers for decisions to plant or not, based on the seasonal forecast.

  12. Start Select region: Ehler’s Climatic Zones 4616, 4614, 5714, 6714, 7714, 7725, 8815, 8825 Are resources available? Total budget (seeds, seedlings, fertilizer, water, labourers, land preparation, etc) Expertise (agricultural management practices); Land (35ha, 50ha, 70ha or greater) Labour (number, experience); Implements (Own, rental) Yes No What is the seasonal forecast? Is it?NN-NN, AN-NN, AN-AN NN-AN, AN-BN Is it? BN-NN, BN-AN AN-BN, BN-BN Yes Yes Have you selected suitable options? • short, medium or long cultivar, • early or late planting, sequential planting, • high plant density • high fertiliser, good top dressing, • frequent weeding, • variety of crops, etc. Have you selected suitable options? • drought tolerant crops;short to medium cultivars, • medium to low plant density • planting dates early • minimise fertilizer application, • control weeds frequently, Yes Yes Plant Seek alternative livelihood Advisory display for suitable options

  13. Start Where are your co-ordinates? Outside M/R catchment Seek help from EO, ARC, UFS, etc Search Eco-Crop2 database: In what ecological sub-region are you located? Not here 4616, 4614, 5714, 6714, 7714, 7725, 8815, 8825 (Chapter 5) e.g. 6714, 5714 Yes No Are the financial aspects in place? Seek for assistance from Commercial banks, Land bank or somewhere else to obtain loan Yes Do cash flow to buy input, for land preparation, pay labour, fertilizer, insecticides, etc. Contact local EO, ARC, UFS, Agricultural unions, etc for information No Yes Do I know enough about farming in south-western Free State Contact EO, Land Affairs, Estate agents, other farmers to rent or headman for allocation Yes Do I have land available for this season? How much land available for crop production? Back-yard 50 ha 100 ha ≥ 200 ha Yes Make arrangements for full time or seasonal labour Have I got enough labour? Yes Check seasonal forecast go to Fig 8.2 or 8.4 Decision tree to ascertain if general conditions are in place prior engaging to field activities in Modder/Riet catchment. No Yes Yes

  14. Start Start Where are your co-ordinates? Where are your co-ordinates? Outside M/R catchment Outside M/R catchment Seek help from EO, ARC, UFS, etc Seek help from EO, ARC, UFS, etc Search Eco-Crop2 database: In what ecological sub-region are you located? Search Eco-Crop2 database: In what ecological sub-region are you located? Not here Not here 4616, 4614, 5714, 6714, 7714, 7725, 8815, 8825 e.g. 6714, 5714 e.g. 6714, 5714 Yes Yes Are the financial aspects in place? Are the financial aspects in place? No No Seek for assistance from Commercial banks, Land bank or somewhere else to obtain loan Seek for assistance from Commercial banks, Land bank or somewhere else to obtain loan Yes Yes Do cash flow to buy input, for land preparation, pay labour, fertilizer, insecticides, etc. Do cash flow to buy input, for land preparation, pay labour, fertilizer, insecticides, etc. Yes Yes No No Do I know enough about farming in south-western Free State Do I know enough about farming in south-western Free State Contact local EO, ARC, UFS, Agricultural unions, etc for information Contact local EO, ARC, UFS, Agricultural unions, etc for information Yes Yes Do I have land available for this season? Do I have land available for this season? Contact EO, Land Affairs, Estate agents, other farmers to rent or headman for allocation Contact EO, Land Affairs, Estate agents, other farmers to rent or headman for allocation Yes Yes How much land available for crop production? How much land available for crop production? ≥ 200 ha ≥ 200 ha 100 ha 100 ha 50 ha 50 ha Back-yard Back-yard Have I got enough labour? Have I got enough labour? Make arrangements for full time or seasonal labour Make arrangements for full time or seasonal labour Yes Yes Check seasonal forecast go to Fig 8.2 or 8.4 Check seasonal forecast go to Fig 8.2 or 8.4 No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No

  15. Choose interventions a/c to probabilities & soils & crop choices Kiesintervensiesvolgenswaarskylikhede & gronde & gewaskiese

  16. Have I got the latest seasonal forecast? Available from ARC-ISCW, SAWS, UFS, ADRM What is the seasonal rainfall forecast for my specific location? Above-normal rainfall Normal rainfall, see Fig 8.5 Below normal rainfall, see Fig 8.6 Above normal rainfall in 1st part of season OND Near Normal 2nd part of the season (AN-NN) Below Normal 2nd part of the season (AN-BN) Above normal rainfall in 2nd part of season JFM (AN-AN) • long growing maize cultivars, • Select alternative crops e.g. sunflower, • consider sequential planting, • increase planting density, • select variety of cultivar, • early weeding • try inter-cropping, • Good fertilization • good top dressing • sand, clay, loam soil, • medium to long cultivar • medium to high density • sequential planting • early weeding • top dressing when good rains forecasted • early planting • lower plant density • early maturing cultivar • for late planting select drought tolerant crops, • choose clay soil to hold water No Yes Yes Decision tree for general options for maize production under rainfed conditions in the south-western Free State when a normal to above-normal rainfall seasonal forecast is issued.

  17. Select suitable crops for region (Chapter 6) What is the seasonal rainfall forecast for my specific location? Normal rainfall produced for OND 1st part Below normal rainfall Near Normal 1st and 2nd part of season (NN-NN) Above-Normal 2nd part of the season (NN-AN) Below-Normal 2nd part of the season (NN-BN) • early or late planting, • medium density, • good fertilization, • cropping systems, • weed frequently, • Select suitable crops, • consider sequential planting, • medium planting density, • medium to short cultivar, • early weeding • inter-cropping, • mulch • In-field water harvesting, etc • early maturing crops, • early planting, • lower fertilization, • control weeds, • cropping systems, • weed frequently, • drought tolerant crops, • decrease plant population Decision tree for general options for near-normal rainfall conditions.

  18. Select suitable crops for region (Chapter 5) What is the seasonal rainfall forecast for my specific location? Below Normal rainfall 1st part OND Above-Normal 2nd part of the season (BN-AN) Below Normal 1st and 2nd part of season (BN-BN) Near-Normal 2nd part of the season (BN- NN) • choose short season cultivars, • select drought resistant crops, • decrease planting density, • plant wide rows, • use IRWH, • minimise fertilizer application, • select planting dates matching rainfall onset, • top dress when receive rains, • minimise weeds during prolonged dry spells, • consider supplementary irrigation if possible, • check short-term forecast continuously, etc. • plant short cultivar, • wide row spaces ‘ • late planting, • minimum tillage, • intercropping, • minimum fertilizer • control weeds, etc • Short cultivar crops, • Select drought resistant, • Late planting, • Follow short term forecast, etc. • Decision tree for general options for maize production under rainfed conditions in south-western Free State when a below-normal rainfall seasonal forecast is issued.

  19. Normal & Above-normal rainfall Crop selection Legumes Plant Maize Choose planting date 15-30 November 16 December- Early January 1-15 December Long to medium cultivar Medium to short cultivar Short cultivar Medium fertilizer application Good fertilizer application Good fertilizer application Scenarios for decision-making under normal to above-normal seasonal forecast for maize production, to make planting dates with cultivar choice.

  20. Exercise for today: draw decision diagrammes • A decision tree to decide on which field i will plant which crop? • Have 3 fields – wetland = clay soil; or mid-slope = loam soil; top of plateau = sandy soil. • Want to choose between maize; potatoes; sunflower? • Make decision diagramme to decide which crop to plant where? • A decision tree for implements – time & type – to plan request for rental – for field preparation & planting. • Decision-making for maize production in the south-western Free State when a below-normal seasonal forecast is issued with two planting dates and short season cultivar.

  21. Oefeningvirvandag: teken…….. • Besluitneemings diagram vir land distrubusievirgewasproduksie. • Besluitneemingsdiagram virkeuse van implemente – tyd & tipevirgrondbewerking & plant. • Besluitneemingsdiagram virmielieproduksie in SW-VS in onder-normaalseisonallevoorspelling – met 2 plantdatuums en kortgroeikultivar.

  22. Other Cases Studies from web • Seed distribution in East Africa   Fine tuning crop seed distribution based on expected seasonal rainfall   • Orange County Sanitation District Response to El Niño forecast    How Orange County California used a seasonal forecast in wastewater planning during the 1997-98 El Niño  • Hydro-Management on Lake Chicamba in Mozambique   Improving multi-use reservoir management with forecasts

  23. IRI WEB TUTORIALS • Finding information on the IRI web site • a) Temperature and Precipitation Climatologiesb) Temperature and Precipitation Seasonal Forecastsc) Drought Monitoring Informationd) Temperature and Precipitation Time SeriesCONCEPT TUTORIALSDecision Trees • http://ccnmtl.columbia.edu/projects/iri/responding/tutorial.html

  24. Self Study for Practical IRI-ENSO-Quick Look http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html 3-Month Seasonal Rainfall - SAWS http://www.weathersa.co.za/Menus/WXandClimate.jsp IRI - tutorial http://ccnmtl.columbia.edu/projects/iri/responding/tutorial.html • International Research Institute for Climate and Society • 3-month outlook Africa = http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/index.html#February_2006

  25. Seasonal Climate Forecasts based on ENSO The More Realistic Picture

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