Ghost of bleaching future: Seasonal Outlooks from NOAA's Operational Climate Forecast System

1. 1 2 Ghost of bleaching future: Seasonal Outlooks from NOAA's Operational Climate Forecast System C. Mark Eakin1, Gang Liu1, Mingyue Chen2, and Arun Kumar2 Mark.Eakin@noaa.gov http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

2. Acknowledgements Collaboration between - NOAA Coral Reef Watch in Silver Spring, Maryland - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Maryland Funding from - NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

3. 1998 Global Bleaching Over 15% of the world’s reefs died after bleaching during 1997-1999 El Niño and La Niña CRW alerted the community in near-real-time

4. 2010 Southeast Asia June Photo: Mark Eakin July Photo: NanengSetiasih June Photo: Takuma Fujii CRW alerted the community in near-real-time and 3-months in advance

5. 2010 Apr-Jul 2010 Apr-Jul LIM-Based Bleaching Outlook Bleaching Alert Area Statistical, deterministic model Single model output Bleaching Outlook 5

6. CFS-based Seasonal Bleaching Outlook (Apr-Jul 2010) • Probabilistic outlook • 28 weekly ensemble runs 90% probability 60% probability Probabilistic outlook for each stress level: Alert Level 2 Alert Level 1 Warning Watch

7. Outline • Applying satellite algorithm • to forecasts • SST forecast model • SST forecast skill • Building the bleaching outlook • Testing the bleaching outlook

8. CRW Satellite-Based Products Primary Products: SST-based 50km Nighttime-only SST SST Anomaly Coral – specific HotSpot Degree Heating Week Bleaching Alert Areas

9. 12 weeks  ( HotSpot value  duration )  1°C CRW Operational Bleaching HotSpots and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) Nowcasting SST Bleaching threshold (MMMSST+1ºC) Maximum Monthly Mean SST Climatology (MMMSST) Week-0 Time Week-12 a b c d HotSpots Degree Heating Weeks  4 DHWs  coral bleaching is expected  8 DHWs  mass bleaching and mortality are expected

10. 12 weeks  ( HotSpot value  duration )  1°C Proposed Bleaching HotSpots and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) Forecasting SST Week-0 Time Week-12 HotSpot from Forecasts Degree Heating Weeks  4 DHWs  coral bleaching is expected  8 DHWs  mass bleaching and mortality are expected

11. NOAA CRW Coral Bleaching Outlook System SST Forecast Bleaching Thermal Stress Forecast - Weekly HotSpot forecasts - Weekly Degree Heating Week forecast Coral Bleaching Outlook

12. NOAA CRW Coral Bleaching Outlook System LIM SST forecast model • NOAA-ESRL Linear Inverse Model, 2x2° resolution • Uses Principal Components/EOF Analysis • The leading 30 EOFs are retained for prediction, explaining average 75% of the total variance in the SST time series data • Weekly Reynolds and Smith Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) data used for training and are used as model input

13. NOAA CRW Coral Bleaching Outlook System CFS SST forecast model LIM SST forecast model • NOAA-NCEP Climate Forecast System Model, 1x1° resolution • Ensemble of 28 runs each week • Thermal stress for each pixel arranged warmest to coolest, redistributed into 28 ensembles to determine probabilities • Data assimilation based on Weekly Reynolds and Smith Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) data are used as initial SST conditions • NOAA-ESRL Linear Inverse Model, 2x2° resolution • Uses Principal Components/EOF Analysis • The leading 30 EOFs are retained for prediction, explaining average 75% of the total variance in the SST time series data • Weekly Reynolds and Smith Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) data used for training and are used as model input

14. Skill Analysis for CFSv1 SST Prediction Values significant at 95% level are shown, all months initial conditions.

15. Skill Analysis for CFSv1 SST Prediction Values significant at 95% level are shown, June initial conditions.

16. Skill Analysis for CFSv1 SST Prediction Values significant at 95% level are shown, November initial conditions.

17. From SST to Bleaching Thermal Stress Forecast Prediction for July 17-23, 2008 (4-week lead-time) SST Prediction Bleaching HotSpot Prediction DHW = 12-week accumulation of HotSpots (  threshold) Bleaching Degree Heating Weeks

18. Bleaching Outlook From Bleaching Thermal Stress to Outlook Prediction for July 17-23, 2008 (4-week lead-time) HotSpot forecast DHW forecast

19. NOAA CRW Seasonal Bleaching Outlook Weekly Bleaching Outlooks (xx% probability) 1-week leadtime 2-week leadtime 3-week leadtime . . . N-week leadtime (currently up to 18 weeks) Seasonal Bleaching Outlook (xx% probability) 60% probability

20. CFS-Based Thermal Stress Outlook: Jul-Oct 2012 60% Probabilities by week Probabilistic global tropical ocean prediction • - Covering 45ºS to 45ºN (all coral reef areas) • - 1x1 degree spatial resolution • Weekly temporal resolution • 3-18 week lead times • Updates weekly

21. CFS-Based Thermal Stress Outlook: Jul-Oct 2012 • Low probability of mass bleaching in most reef regions • Highest risk (NW Hawaiian Islands) in area with relatively low skill 90% probability 60% probability Probabilistic outlook for each stress level: Alert Level 1 (DHW ≥ 4) Alert Level 2 (DHW ≥ 8) Warning Watch

22. Summary • New system provides global coverage • with probabilistic outlook • SST prediction skill highest in central • and eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean • Performs well in the Caribbean and • Great Barrier Reef • Provides general patterns of potential • bleaching • - enables managers and scientists to prepare

23. Next Steps: • Transition from CFSv1 to CFSv2 by • end of 2012 • CFSv2 adds an increased spatial resolution • and number of ensembles in first 45 days • Complete evaluation and analysis of skill

24. 1 2 Thank you Ghost of bleaching future: Seasonal Outlooks from NOAA's Operational Climate Forecast SystemC. M. Eakin1, G. Liu1, M. Chen2, and A. Kumar2 Mark.Eakin@noaa.gov http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov