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20 Indicators Everyone Should Know C2ER’s 52 nd Annual Conference Oklahoma City • June 7, 2012 Jenny Hsu Manager of E

20 Indicators Everyone Should Know C2ER’s 52 nd Annual Conference Oklahoma City • June 7, 2012 Jenny Hsu Manager of Economic Research. Measuring the Economy - GDP. Price Pressures. Indicators Tracking GDP. Price Pressures (CPI). C. I. G. N. Indicators Tracking GDP.

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20 Indicators Everyone Should Know C2ER’s 52 nd Annual Conference Oklahoma City • June 7, 2012 Jenny Hsu Manager of E

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  1. 20 Indicators Everyone Should Know C2ER’s 52nd Annual Conference Oklahoma City • June 7, 2012 Jenny Hsu Manager of Economic Research

  2. Measuring the Economy - GDP Price Pressures

  3. Indicators Tracking GDP Price Pressures (CPI) C I G N

  4. Indicators Tracking GDP Price Pressures (CPI) C I G N

  5. Houston Area Profile Employment

  6. Houston Area Profile Nonfarm Payroll Employment • Establishment survey • 300,000 establishments • 400 metro areas • 40% of total nonfarm population • Seasonal adjustments Indicator #1

  7. Houston Area Profile Nonfarm Payroll Employment Indicator #1

  8. Houston Area Profile Unemployment Rate U3 = Total unemployed in the labor force Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Indicator #2

  9. Houston Area Profile Unemployment Rate U5 = U4 + marginally attached U4 = U3 + discouraged workers U3 = Total unemployed in the labor force Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Indicator #2

  10. Houston Area Profile Unemployment Rate U6 = U5 + part time for economic reasons U5 = U4 + marginally attached U4 = U3 + discouraged workers U3 = Total unemployed in the labor force Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Indicator #2

  11. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) • Census of 9 million establishments • Unemployment insurance taxes • Released 6 months after the quarter • Benchmark revisions Indicator #3

  12. Using the QCEW Indicator #3

  13. Occupational Employment Statistics Indicator #4

  14. Houston Area Profile Employment

  15. Houston Area Profile Employment

  16. Retail & Auto Sales • Consumer spending makes up 70% of all economic activity • Retail sales account for 30% of consumer spending • Sign of consumer confidence and overall economic growth • Not adjusted for inflation Indicators #5 & #6

  17. Purchasing Managers Index • First indicator available every month • Leading indicator for regional production • Range of 0-100 50 = neutral > 50 = likely increase in production over next 3-4 months < 50 = likely contraction in production over next 3-4 months Indicator #7

  18. Purchasing Managers Index April `12 59.1 Neutral = 50 March `09 39.0 Source: National Association of Purchasing Management - Houston, Inc. Indicator #7

  19. North American Rig Count (monthly average) Apr ’12 1,962 Sep `08 2,014 June `09 895 Source: Baker Hughes

  20. Housing Starts & Building Permits • Reliable leading indicator • Multiplier effects on other industries • 1,000 homes = 2,500 jobs = $100M wages • Home construction = 5% of GDP Indicators #8 & #9

  21. Home Sales • 8 out of 10 are existing home sales • Signals confidence in jobs and income growth • Foreshadows future consumer purchases • 1-3 months lag in data • Time of actual closing vs. Pending Indicator #10

  22. Foreign Trade • Trade Value vs. Weight/Units • Top export, imports, & trade partners Indicator #11

  23. Using Foreign Trade data Houston-China Total Trade Indicator #11

  24. Inflation • Price pressures on consumers and businesses • Use CPI to adjust other indicators to “real” dollars • CPI-W, CPI-U and Core CPI Indicator #12

  25. Indicators Tracking GDP Price Pressures (CPI)

  26. GDP comparison Houston Metro Area GDP = $395.4 Billion Norway = $413.0 billion Houston MSA GRP = $325.5 billion Saudi Arabia = $434.7 billion Houston = $395.4 billion Austria = $379.1 billion Venezuela = $391.8 billion Source: World Bank

  27. An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today. -Dr. Laurence J. Peter

  28. 20 Indicators Everyone Should Know C2ER’s 52nd Annual Conference Oklahoma City • June 7, 2012 Jenny Hsu Manager of Economic Research

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