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California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast PG&E

This report compares the electricity and natural gas demand forecasts for California from 2011-2020. It includes scenarios for high, mid, and low demand, as well as comparisons to previous forecasts. The report also discusses the impact of TV standards, electric vehicles, and self-generation on peak demand.

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California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast PG&E

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  1. California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast PG&E February 7, 2012 Chris KavalecDemand Analysis OfficeElectricity Supply Analysis Division Chris.kavalec@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-5184

  2. PG&E Electricity Sales • Average annual growth of 1.78%, 1.16%, and 0.86% from 2011-2020 in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.21% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009) • Lower starting point vs. CED 2009 • Slightly lower in low and mid scenarios vs. preliminary 2011 forecast (0.73% lower in 2022 in mid case), slightly higher in high demand case • Econometric sales forecast 0.14% higher in mid case in 2022, lower in high case (3.6% in 2022)

  3. PG&E Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

  4. PG&E Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

  5. PG&E Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)

  6. PG&E Peak Demand • Average annual growth of 2.02%, 1.59%, and 1.06% from 2011-2020 in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.33% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009) • Lower in all three cases vs. preliminary 2011 forecast (0.25% lower in 2022 in high case, 0.15% lower in mid case, 3.2% lower in low case) • Econometric forecast higher in low and mid cases (2.7% in mid case in 2022), slightly lower in high case

  7. PG&E Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

  8. PG&E Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

  9. PG&E Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)

  10. PG&E TV Standards Savings

  11. PG&E Electric Vehicles

  12. PG&E Self-Generation Peak Impacts

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