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HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself!

Muskox ( Ovibos moschatus ) in the Lüneburg Heath wildlife park, Germany. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ovibos_moschatus_qtl3.jpg. HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself!. Massimiliano Zappa, Käthi Liechti

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HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself!

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  1. Muskox (Ovibosmoschatus) in the Lüneburg Heath wildlife park, Germany. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ovibos_moschatus_qtl3.jpg HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself! Massimiliano Zappa, Käthi Liechti Florian Pappenberger, Schalk Jan van Andel, Maria-Helena Ramos Contact: massimiliano.zappa@wsl.ch

  2. The wisdom of the crowd The wisdom of the crowd is the process of taking into account the collective opinion of a group of individuals rather than a single expert to answer a question. A large group's aggregated answers to questions involving quantity estimation, general world knowledge, and spatial reasoning has generally been found to be as good as, and often better than, the answer given by any of the individuals within the group. (Source: wikipedia)

  3. Galton F. 1907. Voxpopuli. Nature75: 450-451. Muskox (Ovibosmoschatus) in the Lüneburg Heath wildlife park, Germany. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ovibos_moschatus_qtl3.jpg

  4. Ignoring the Wisdom of Crowds • http://blog.asmartbear.com/ignoring-the-wisdom-of-crowds.html Who Wants to be a Millionaire The TV studio audience (about 200 people) predicts the correct answer an astonishing 91% of the time. Remember, these are questions from all domains of knowledge, all ranges of difficulty, polling a group of people who happened spend the (weekday) afternoon in a TV studio.

  5. Hydrological Ensemble Predictions Also a kind of „Wisdom of theCrowds“ Does a crowd of members have more wisdom than a single valued forecast?

  6. TheGame Youneed a pencil! -> Check one box! • Writeyourco-ordinates: EG: G-26 x Howbig will bethepeakdischargefromthisforecast? At which time will the peak discharge occur?

  7. Ourgame‘slocation Verzasca - Lavertezzo (186 km2)

  8. Thishappenedthesedaysoneyearago: Forecastinitialization 25. April 2013 60 seconds to giveyouranswer!

  9. Thishappenedthesedaysoneyearago: Forecastinitialization 26. April 2013 60 seconds to giveyouranswer!

  10. Thishappenedthesedaysoneyearago: Forecastinitialization 27. April 2013 60 seconds to giveyouranswer!

  11. Thishappenedthesedaysoneyearago: Forecastinitialization 28. April 2013 60 seconds to giveyouranswer!

  12. p100 p75 p50 p25 p0 t0 t25 t50 t75 t100 HEPS can also provide such an estimation! The „Peak-FlowBox“ (Zappa et al., HP, 2013) A concept based on two boxes and two lines, enveloping the 16 peak-flows from HEPS and identifying quantiles Peak Discharge Time of peak since forecast initialization

  13. … and let‘s come closer to thesolution ! Contact: massimiliano.zappa@wsl.ch

  14. Solution: Forecastinitialization 25. April 2013 x x Solution: H35, Peak-Box: J36 Peak-Box Error: 1 Box Timing, 2 Boxes Volume Total-Error Peak-box: 1 Box Timing, 2 Boxes Volume, Total 3 Boxes

  15. Solution: Forecastinitialization 26. April 2013 x x Solution: G31, Peak-Box: H30 Peak-Box Error: 1 Box Timing, 1 Box Volume Total-Error Peak-box: 2 Boxes Timing, 3 Boxes Volume, Total 5 Boxes

  16. Solution: Forecastinitialization 27. April 2013 x x Solution: F26, Peak-Box: G6 Peak-Box Error: 0 Box Timing, 1 Box Volume Total-Error Peak-box: 2 Boxes Timing, 4 Boxes Volume, Total 6 Boxes

  17. Solution: Forecastinitialization 28. April 2013 x x Solution: H23, Peak-Box: I24 Peak-Box Error: 1Box Timing, 1 Box Volume Total-Error Peak-box: 3 Boxes Timing, 5 Boxes Volume, Total 8 Boxes

  18. The winners Everybody sum up his or her neighbor errors … Total-Error Peak-box: 3 Boxes Timing 5 Boxes Volume Total 8 Boxes Whodidbetter? Whodid best?

  19. Muskox (Ovibosmoschatus) in the Lüneburg Heath wildlife park, Germany. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ovibos_moschatus_qtl3.jpg The prize! Contact: massimiliano.zappa@wsl.ch

  20. The consolation prize: Each of you ging us back thegamesheet will become a smallswisschocolate, so pleasegiveusthesheet back so thatwecanmakesomeanalysis A blog post with analysis will appear later on www.hepex.org Reading: Galton F. 1907.Vox populi. Nature 75: 450-451. Zappa M, Fundel F, Jaun S. 2013. A “Peak-Flow Box” Approach for Supporting Interpretation and Evaluation of Operational Ensemble Flood Forecasts. Hydrological processes. 27: 117-131. doi:/10.1002/hyp.9521

  21. Job vacancy announcement @WSL Scientist/Postdoc for Hydropower systems (80-100%) You will develop new solutions for an optimized, environmentally compatible hydropower production together with partners from research and industry. In particular, you will investigate the added value of long-term, seasonal hydrological forecasts for the operation of hydropower plants. A PhD degree in the field of hydrology, meteorology, earth sciences or in a similar discipline is required. Ideally, you have worked with probabilistic hydrometeorologic or climate models and have knowledge in programming and statistical methods. Just ask me for details if you are interested!

  22. HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself! THE GAME IS OVER AND ______________ HAS WON THANKS! Contact: massimiliano.zappa@wsl.ch

  23. A similargameplayedsomeyearsago

  24. … and let‘saskthis to many people! The observed value? 785 m3s-1 at 11:00

  25. Theoutcomes of the 2008 game ? The observed value? 785 m3s-1 at 11:00

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