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We face enormous challenges

How Can We Turn Sun Radiation into Automotion? by Ron Swenson, Sustainable Transportation Fund The Future of Automotive Energy: Fossil Fuels, Agro Fuels or Photovoltaic Cells hosted by SIKA & CHU Stockholm November 6, 2007. We face enormous challenges. Global Warming Peak Oil

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We face enormous challenges

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  1. How Can We Turn Sun Radiation into Automotion?by Ron Swenson, Sustainable Transportation FundThe Future of Automotive Energy: Fossil Fuels, Agro Fuels or Photovoltaic Cellshosted by SIKA & CHUStockholm November 6, 2007

  2. We face enormous challenges • Global Warming • Peak Oil • Deeply corrupted governments (USA) • Industry Sell-Outs • Well meaning environmentalists • GreenWashers

  3. We must develop enormous programs to meet these challenges. • The $21 Trillion already committed to carbon is destructive. • We need to overcome collective ignorance, and get a grip on the scale of the challenge.

  4. Global Warming

  5. Atmospheric CO2

  6. The fires are burning! Fires in Congo & Angola

  7. Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse • Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35 days • Larger than Rhode Island • Totally baffled scientists • 1 down, 4 to go

  8. Is this a workable response?

  9. We must stop carbon build-up …

  10. Peak Oil

  11. Peak Oil "Today I believe is the end of cheap energy. It's essential that we move away from fossil fuels as fast as possible. The boat is sinking and we have to do everything we can to plug the hole.” Lord Ron Oxburgh, former chair of Shell

  12. The Pretenders IEA, EIA, Shell, BP, Saudi Aramco, Lynch, Adelman, Yergin, Lovins www.HubbertPeak.com/Pretenders

  13. The Pretenders “The Commission does not embrace the view that world oil production has peaked.” The National Commission on Energy Policy www.HubbertPeak.com/Pretenders

  14. The Hubbert Peak

  15. UK Production and Net Exports

  16. Top 5 Exporters: Production & Consumption

  17. Deeply corrupted governments (USA) • In cahoots with corrupt industry, responsible to no-one • requiring both internal and external pressure to make change possible • Best pressures are technological advancements and market effectiveness

  18. The All-New DonCar! www.OilCrisis.com/Transport

  19. Industry Sell-Outs

  20. Industry Sell-Outs

  21. In case you missed it…

  22. GreenwashersWell-meaning environmentalistsAcademics who know but won’t tell

  23. GreenWashers • Greenwashing," a pejorative term derived from the term "whitewashing," was coined by environmental activists to describe efforts by corporations to portray themselves as environmentally responsible in order to mask environmental wrongdoings. www.businessethics.ca/greenwashing/

  24. Well meaning environmentalists • Too lazy or incompetent to do the math

  25. Academics who know but won’t tell

  26. F. Sherwood Rowland The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1995 Rowland theorized that manmade organic gases combine with solar radiation, releasing atoms of chlorine and chlorine monoxide destroying ozone. Rowland's research, published in Nature, 1974, initiated a scientific investigation. The National Academy of Sciences concurred in 1976, and in 1978 CFC-based aerosols were banned.

  27. Scalability

  28. Richard Smalley “Think TeraWatts” 2004 Smalley.Rice.edu → Our Energy Challenge

  29. Scalability

  30. Renewable Energy Solar 1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface 600 TW practical Wind 2-4 TW extractable Biomass 5-7 TW gross all cultivatable land not used for food Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross Hydroelectric Geothermal 4.6 TW gross 1.6 TW technically feasible 0.9 TW economically feasible 0.6 TW installed capacity 12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable

  31. “All Strategies Are Essential” 30 U.S. LIQUID FUELS DEMAND MODERATE GLOBAL TRADE (NET IMPORTS) MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 15 EXPAND & DIVERSIFY U.S. LIQUID FUELS 2000 2010 2020 2030 YEAR Source: EIA Reference Case / NPC Global Oil and Gas study survey. Illustrative View

  32. Internal Combustion … • Take 26.5 Quads of oil • Turn 21.2 into smoke • Use 5.3 to run things … How incredibly wasteful!?

  33. Two out-of-date ways to produce power • ExternalCombustion (Boiling water)James Watt (1776) … includingnuclear power, just a fancy boiler, inherently inefficient. • Internal Combustion (Burning oil)Rudolf Diesel (1893) … hybrid electrics are just variations, inherently inefficient, heavy, under-utilized.

  34. There is no Silver Bullet. Why Silver in the first place? • The Lone Ranger chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. • Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35 • Specific gravity of Ag = 10.50 Ag Ag

  35. There is no Ag Bullet. • Now I think I follow what you mean. Let’s find out why….

  36. Corn Ethanol

  37. Burning biofuels perpetuates inefficiency • Internal combustion is the PROBLEM.

  38. Waste no time going down Blind Alleys

  39. Roscoe Bartlett “It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful.”

  40. 3% decline per year Useful Lifetime 25 Years The Energy Cost of Energy 75 Net Energy Analysis 100 Cumulative new energy from investment Annual contribution from alternate energy source www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling

  41. 85 Available (net) Energy after Investment The Energy Cost of Energy 75 60 Net Energy Analysis 100 Cumulative new energy from investment www.HubbertPeak.com/Modeling

  42. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time Consequence of Delayed Investment Net Energy Production begin investment before decline Begin investment during decline www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

  43. EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses natural gas • Low EROEI → Greenhouse gases EROEI = 3?

  44. EROEI for Nuclear Plus … • Terrorism • Waste guarded for 10,000+ years • Depletion → low grade ores → Greenhouse gases … How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland? EROEI = 4 12 ~ electric

  45. EROEI for Hydrogen Am I missing something?! EROEI = ½

  46. EROEI for PV • EPBT: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it can be bootstrapped EROEI = 1030 ~ electric

  47. EROEI for Thin Film PV • EPBT: 6 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 40120 ~electric

  48. EROEI for Wind • EPBT: 3 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 80240 ~ electric

  49. Solar Energy

  50. Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” (1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com

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