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Introduction to 2006-IPCC guidelines

Workshop CH4 from waste, March 8th -9th, 2006. Introduction to 2006-IPCC guidelines. In the next hour. Changes compared to previous methods Some backgrounds Why 1st order decay model (FOD) Changed mathematics FOD Single-phase vs. multi-phase Why default oxidation

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Introduction to 2006-IPCC guidelines

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  1. Workshop CH4 from waste, March 8th -9th, 2006 Introduction to 2006-IPCC guidelines Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  2. In the next hour • Changes compared to previous methods • Some backgrounds • Why 1st order decay model (FOD) • Changed mathematics FOD • Single-phase vs. multi-phase • Why default oxidation • Measuring and estimating recovery • Default values • Introduction to the spreadsheet-model Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  3. Methane emissions emission = (formation – recovery)*(1-oxidation) Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  4. Most important changes compared to ‘96 RG and ‘00 GPG • Improved estimate of waste and DOC • 1st order decay model (FOD) strongly recommended • and facilitated in a model • slightly different mathematics FOD • improved default values • Waste generation • Waste composition • Model parameters • recovery preferably measured, conservative estimation methodology introduced • C-storage, harvested wood in landfill Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  5. Estimating DOC landfilled Default values for • MSW-produced • Other wastes produced • Composition waste • DOC-content waste fractions • Fraction landfilled • Historical development amounts waste Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  6. Estimating DOC landfilled (2) Bulk waste approach: • Little information available • MSW-generated * % landfilled = MSW landfilled • MSW landfilled * DOCMSW = DOC in MSW landfilled Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  7. Estimating DOC landfilled (3) Material stream approach: • Country specific information available • MSW-generated * % landfilled = MSW landfilled • MSW landfilled * % food waste = food waste landfilled • Food waste landfilled * DOCfw = DOC in food landfilled Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  8. Calculation of methane formation • Methane potential as in ‘96-RG and ’00-GPG L0 = 0,5 * 16/12 * DOCf * DOC * MCF • Defaults for DOCf and MCF • Delayed release of methane potential: first order decay (FOD)-model Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  9. Why FOD? • Methane is formed throughout decades • Starting point emission inventory: ‘where and when’ • GPG, 2000: ‘Important when practices change rapidly’ • GPG, 2000: ‘1996-default method overestimates effect of reduced landfilling in the period 1990-2010, FOD is good practice’ • For transparency reasons FOD for all countries Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  10. Better estimation of emission reduction Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  11. Better estimation of emission reduction (2) Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  12. Changes to ‘96-guidelines/’00-GPG • Facilitated by development of internet • More complicated methodology • Still easy to use • Reason for changes Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  13. Changes in algorithm • FOD 1996: formation = L0 * k * e-kt (1) • GPG ’00: correction factor • FOD 2006: formation = L0* (e-k(t-1)-e-kt) (2) • Validated older models (1) are not „wrong“ Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  14. Single-phase vs. Multi-phase • Waste is not waste but food, paper, wood, etc. • Single-phase • Average k-value for all streams • Reactions are fully dependent • Decay of food waste is delayed and wood waste is accelerated • Multi-phase • Discrete k-values for each stream • Reactions are fully independent • Wood is wood and degrades as wood, irrespective of other wastes present Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  15. Single-phase vs. Multi-phase (2) • Truth will lie in the middle • No experimental support for either of both options • No theoretical support for either of both • Both options are facilitated in the model Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  16. Recovery Starting point ‘00 GPG: • only measured amounts recovered!!!!! • (recovery estimates tend to be way too optimistic) ’06-guidelines: • Measurements highly recommended • Conservative default estimation methods introduced • 20% recovery efficiency • 35% of installed capacity Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  17. Recovery (2) Few measurements available: • 10-85% efficiency (Netherlands: 37% average) • However mostly closed landfills Most relevant landfills still have parts in exploitation Conservative default efficiency: ~20% (Dutch experience, to my opinion not that conservative) Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  18. Recovery (3) Recovery and flare capacity • Conservative default utilisation factor: 35% • Based on US and Dutch experiences Main reasons for non-use • Overestimated gas formation – Overdesigned equipment • Poor working hours (down to 80%) • Back-up systems Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

  19. Oxidation default value: 10% No change compared to ’96-RG and ’00-GPG May be higher, but highly uncertain • Very difficult to measure • 13C-analysis • CO2 and CH4 mass balance • Heterogeneous pathway of emissions due to cracks, etc. • Highly variable (CH4-flux, soil-type, vegetation) • Dependent on climatological conditions, season • Few data available Intro IPCC-model, Copenhagen

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