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21 st Century Hydrology for Dams

21 st Century Hydrology for Dams. Emerging Methodologies. Incremental Design A nalysis Risk Analysis Physical Based Model for Embankment Overtopping and Erosion Paleoflood Hydrology Site Specific PMPs. 21 st Century Technology. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) LiDAR

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21 st Century Hydrology for Dams

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  1. 21st Century Hydrology for Dams

  2. Emerging Methodologies • Incremental Design Analysis • Risk Analysis • Physical Based Model for Embankment Overtopping and Erosion • Paleoflood Hydrology • Site Specific PMPs

  3. 21st Century Technology • Geographic Information Systems (GIS) • LiDAR • 2D Hydrology • 2D Hydrualics

  4. Current Standards and Regulations

  5. Current Standards and Regulations Hazard Classification System • High Hazard Potential • Significant Hazard Potential • Low Hazard Potential

  6. PMF for High Hazard Dams

  7. Current Issues

  8. Current Issues

  9. Current Issues

  10. Current Issues

  11. Current Issues

  12. Current Issues “Over the past six years, for every deficient, high hazard potential dam repaired, nearly two more were declared deficient.”

  13. 21st Century Technology • Geographic Information Systems (GIS) • LiDAR • 2D Hydrology • 2D Hydrualics Photo courtesy Lasico Photo courtesy Geoslopes

  14. 20th Century Hydrology

  15. 21st Century Hydrology

  16. 20th Century Hydraulics

  17. 21st Century Hydraulics

  18. 21st Century Hydraulics courtesy University of Mississippi

  19. 2D Hydraulics courtesy University of Mississippi

  20. 2D Hydraulics courtesy University of Mississippi

  21. 2D Hydraulics

  22. 2D Hydraulics

  23. 2D Hydraulics

  24. 2D Hydraulics

  25. 2D Hydraulics

  26. 2D Hydraulics

  27. 2D Hydraulics

  28. 2D Hydraulics

  29. 2D Hydraulics

  30. 2D Hydraulics

  31. 2D Hydraulics

  32. 2D Hydraulics

  33. 2D Hydraulics

  34. 2D Hydraulics

  35. 2D Hydraulics

  36. 2D Hydraulics

  37. 2D Hydraulics

  38. 21st Century Technology • Geographic Information Systems (GIS) • LiDAR • 2D Hydrology • 2D Hydrualics Photo courtesy Lasico

  39. Emerging Methodologies • Incremental Design Analysis • Risk Analysis • Physical Based Model for Embankment Overtopping and Erosion • Paleoflood Hydrology • Site Specific PMPs

  40. Emerging Methodologies • Incremental Design Analysis • Risk Analysis • Physical Based Model for Embankment Overtopping and Erosion • Paleoflood Hydrology • Site Specific PMPs

  41. Emerging Methodologies • Incremental Design Analysis • Risk Analysis • Physical Based Model for Embankment Overtopping and Erosion • Paleoflood Hydrology • Site Specific PMPs

  42. Risk Analysis • Primary Authors • Dr. Arthur Miller, P.E. (AECOM) • Schweiger, Hess, Holderbaum, Kline, Raorabaugh, Dickey, and Richards (Gannett Fleming) • Steering Committee: • James Gallagher, P.E. • Shyang-Chen S. Lin, P.E. • Brian Long • Dan Mahoney, P.E. • John H. Moyle, P.E. • Laurence Siroky, P.E. • Reviewed by Research Work Group (National Dam Safety Review Board): • Brian Becker • Jason Boyle, P.E. • Robert H. Dalton • James Demby • Patrick Diederich, P.E. • Greg Hanson • Lisa Krosley • Dan Mahoney, P.E. • John Ritchey • Michael K. Sharp • Hal Van Aller • Eugene P Zeizel DRAFT

  43. Risk Analysis • Primary Authors • Dr. Arthur Miller, P.E. (AECOM) • Schweiger, Hess, Holderbaum, Kline, Raorabaugh, Dickey, and Richards (Gannett Fleming) • Steering Committee: • James Gallagher, P.E. • Shyang-Chen S. Lin, P.E. • Brian Long • Dan Mahoney, P.E. • John H. Moyle, P.E. • Laurence Siroky, P.E. • Reviewed by Research Work Group (National Dam Safety Review Board): • Brian Becker • Jason Boyle, P.E. • Robert H. Dalton • James Demby • Patrick Diederich, P.E. • Greg Hanson • Lisa Krosley • Dan Mahoney, P.E. • John Ritchey • Michael K. Sharp • Hal Van Aller • Eugene P Zeizel FEMA’s new guidance to states will include provisions to allow risk assessment when selecting the appropriate inflow design floods for dams. DRAFT

  44. Risk Analysis Annual Risk of Death • Any Accident (1 in 2,500) • Hospital Infection (1 in 3,000) • Car Accident (1 in 8,000)

  45. Broadly Accepted and Tolerable Risk • Broadly Acceptable Risk • Tolerable Risk - People are prepared to accept risk to secure benefits • Risks are properly assessed and managed • Risks are reduced to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) • Risks are periodically reviewed • Requires ongoing review and management courtesy USACE

  46. Risk Analysis Risk = Probability of Event X Probability of Failure Given Such an Event X Consequences

  47. Risk Analysis Risk = Probability of Event (1 in 100) X Probability of Failure Given Such an Event X Consequences

  48. Risk Analysis Risk = Probability of Event (1 in 100) X Probability of Failure Given Such an Event (1 in 10) X Consequences

  49. Risk Analysis Risk = Probability of Event (1 in 100) X Probability of Failure Given Such an Event (1 in 10) X Consequences (100 lives lost)

  50. Risk Analysis Risk (1 in 1,000 chance of 100 lives lost) = Probability of Event (1 in 100) X Probability of Failure Given Such an Event (1 in 10) X Consequences (100 lives lost)

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