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Patterns in Time of Extreme Tides and Sea Level Rise over The 21 st Century: Puget Sound and the Other Marine Waters of

Patterns in Time of Extreme Tides and Sea Level Rise over The 21 st Century: Puget Sound and the Other Marine Waters of Washington State. Harold O. Mofjeld JISAO Senior Fellow and UW/Oceanography Affiliate Professor. Focus of the Talk:. Marine Waters of Washington State

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Patterns in Time of Extreme Tides and Sea Level Rise over The 21 st Century: Puget Sound and the Other Marine Waters of

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  1. Patterns in Time of Extreme Tides and Sea Level Rise over The 21st Century:Puget Sound and the Other Marine Waters of Washington State Harold O. Mofjeld JISAO Senior Fellow and UW/Oceanography Affiliate Professor

  2. Focus of the Talk: • Marine Waters of Washington State • 21st Century Tides and Sea Level Rise • Providing the Best Available Science

  3. Reporting Results of a Pilot Study to: • Provide initial scientific results and insights • Identify next steps to improve the science and make it available to those who need it

  4. Complementary to Ongoing Work by the Climate Impacts Group, e.g.: • Mote et al. (2008) on sea level rise in Washington’s marine waters • Petersen (2007) Masters thesis on providing useful information to governments and agencies in the region • Doug Canning’s work on sea level rise and fieldwork on high waters

  5. Some Stakeholders: • Counties, cities, and towns • Local, state and federal planning and regulatory agencies • Property owners and investors • Interest groups • Public

  6. Approach: • Compute tidal predictions at long-term tide stations • Add Mote et al. (2008) sea level rise scenarios • Look for patterns in the occurrences of extreme (high and low) water level events

  7. REF.: TIDAL DATUMS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS NOAA Spec. Publ. NOS CO-OPS 1, 2000

  8. Dividing WA Marine Waters into Four Regions: • Puget Sound • Eastern Straits • Northwest Olympic Peninsula • Outer & Southern Coast, Including Large Embayments

  9. Reference Tide Stations:

  10. Examples of Coastal Types in the Four Tidal Regions WA Dept. of Ecology Shoreline Aerial Photos http://apps.ecy.wa.gov/shorephotos/

  11. Seattle, Central Puget SoundHighly Developed Shoreline

  12. Silverdale, Dyes InletCommercial and Private Development

  13. Tahuya River Mouth, So. Hood CanalPrivate Shoreline Development, Habitat

  14. Near Padilla Bay NER Reserve, Eastern StraitsShoreside Agricultural, Natural Habitat

  15. Ocean Shores, Open CoastDeveloped, but with Dune Buffer

  16. Cape Shoalwater, Open Coast Developed, but Possible Erosion

  17. Observed Sea Level Trends at Reference Tide Gauges -- The Recent Past --

  18. Elliott Bay, Seattle

  19. Observed Mean Monthly Sea Level (MMSL) at Seattle

  20. Friday Harbor -- San Juan Islands

  21. Observed Friday Harbor MMSL

  22. Neah Bay -- Olympic Peninsula

  23. Example of a Tide Gauge -- Neah Bay

  24. Observed MMSL at Neah Bay

  25. Toke Point -- Outer Coast

  26. Observed MMSL at Toke Point

  27. Assumed Sea Level Rise Profiles for the 21st Century Based on Mote et al. (2008) Scenarios • Relative to Mean Sea Level in 2000 • Mote et al. (2008) values given for 2050 and 2100 • Smooth curve (quadratic) fit through these values • Allows for increasing upward trends toward the end of the 21st Century

  28. Reference Tide Stations:

  29. PUGET SOUND

  30. NW PENINSULA

  31. CENTRAL & SOUTHERN COAST

  32. Predicted Tides For The 21st Century • Looking for patterns in the high and low tides in their 18.6-yr cycle • Noting that the tides vary significantly with location in the WA marine waters • Sea level rise to be added later

  33. Olympia -- Southern Puget Sound

  34. Predicted Tides on May 12-13, 2008 -- Straits of JdF and Puget Sound

  35. FOCUSING ON SEATTLE EXTREME PREDICTED TIDES:LOOKING AT HEIGHTS AND TIMING REFERENCE LEVEL FIXED AT MLLW FOR THE 1983-2001 TIDAL EPOCH

  36. Seattle Tides (May-June 2008)

  37. SEATTLE TIDE STATION: SAMPLE OF EXTREME PREDICTED TIDES

  38. SEATTLE EXTREME PREDICTED TIDES

  39. Nodal Variations of Tidal Amplitudes

  40. SEATTLE HIGHEST PREDICTED TIDES

  41. SEATTLE: HIGHEST PREDICTED TIDES

  42. SEATTLE: TIMES OF HIGHEST PREDICTED TIDES

  43. SEATTLE: TIMES OF HIGHEST PREDICTED TIDES

  44. SEATTLE LOWEST PREDICTED TIDES

  45. SEATTLE: LOWEST PREDICTED TIDES

  46. SEATTLE: TIMES OF LOWEST PREDICTED TIDES

  47. SEATTLE: TIMES OF LOWEST PREDICTED TIDES

  48. SEATTLE TIDAL DATUMS(Without Sea Level Rise)

  49. Adding Sea Level Rise To The Extreme Predicted Tides At Seattle

  50. PUGET SOUND

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