A Random Walk Toward Simulation Accuracy, Partnering and Probity

1. A Random WalkToward Simulation Accuracy, Partnering and Probity Priscilla Elfrey Kennedy Space Center IT/C1, Florida 32899 Priscilla.R.Elfrey@nasa.gov

2. A Long Road… • “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Clarke • For simulation this means advanced technology and expanded networks • Plus greater attention to education, training, professionalism, high ethical standards and practices.

3. Muddling along a random path… • Past movement and direction cannot predict future movement or direction • Adapt and approach complex issues incrementally • Three random paths that may ( or may not) converge • Technical Criteria Concerns • Partnering • Truth and Falsity

4. Criteria Concerns Raised at SimSummit 2002 • Importance of criteria that would • Confirm or deny value of products or practitioners • Promote continuous efforts to improve fidelity, interoperability, accessibility and utility as perceived by the customer

5. Value of Criteria • Essential ( Go or no go) or desirable (prioritized) promote • Creative approaches to problem-solving • Good question, “How best can we…?” • Options • Solution-mindedness • Questions that question the questions • “What if?” and “What next?” • Appropriate roles • Means for acquiring resources

6. Essential NASA criteria • Accuracy, accuracy, accuracy. • Safety and desired outcomes • Do away with expensive prototypes where total production run is a single unit. • Current limits mean lack of capability to perform micro-level analysis of large complex processes and methods.

7. Spacecraft generally spend more time on the ground than in Space • Life cycle cost containment significant • Drive out design changes before building • Less complex, easier to repair, more friendly to operator • Reduce errors, waste, rework,training time, improve quality While technology advances--life of large,often unique, systems, lengthen

8. Key to Simulation’s Credibility and Acceptance * Accuracy, accuracy, accuracy • No Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval, no “E-pinions” • Good data, transparent validation and verification • Insights into optimization efficiencies • Exact tolerances, flexibility,accessibility, • Operator assessment,cost, performance

9. Would hyper-real time simulation mean better design? • Simulation is data plus senses • Would it mean improved design capability --better decision making -- as people experience the work not just look at and analyze it? • Proven in battle-- to be tested in an advanced engineering environment? • What research exists? How can we know?

10. Simulation Changes the Way We Know Truth • Constructs world in one way or another, ideological basis, alters, creates new concepts of what is real;values some things above others • Issue of illusion haunts us • Puppet, god, manipulator, con artist? - Falsity • Makes the engineer uneasy • Never neutral-- imposes responsibility

11. Simulation and Team Leadership • Attracting partners/ growing in the process • USTDC, NCS, SCS, SISO, NTSA • Local, regional, national, international • Digital Media, Games industry…………. • Advancing technology and its sense of reality involves a growing mix • People, talents and needs • Integrating domain and technical expertise • Suggests other random--and surprising-- paths