Agro/Biofuels - A Climate Disaster in the Making

1. Agro/Biofuels- more than a red herring- a climate disaster in the making Biofuelwatchintroduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Councl Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

2. Summary • Climate Change background - urgency to avoid catastropic climate change • The “Green Fuel” hype and drivers • Agrofuels are accelerating climate change • Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

3. Emission sources • Deforestation, agriculture and peat • Anthropogenic energy From Stern Report Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

4. How much warming / ghgs is safe? • None! Present ‘Radiative forcings’ already over safe levels • Total Greenhouse Gases – 460 ppm CO2e (CO2 - 384 ppm) • Total positive radiative forcing from humans – 560ppm CO2e • 2˚C warming is maximum to avoid runaway climate change – most scientists think 450-550 ppm C02e equivalents is limit • Jim Hansen (NASA) says 1.8˚C max. • Siberian Tundra close to melting • C02 already emitted but not forced=0.6˚C • We are experiencing effects from 30 years ago Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

5. Contraction and Convergence Emissions are contracting Rest of World India China Business as Usual (BAU) = Expansion and Divergence Converging to per capita level Annex 1 (non-OECD) OECD minus USA USA Continue to contract to post carbon era 2100 1900 1950 2000 2000 2050 Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

6. Runaway Climate Change • Speed up of Arctic Ice Melt • Siberian Tundra melt (Methane) • Deep Ocean Methane Hydrates • Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet • Melting / break up of West Antartica Ice Sheet • Switching off of Gulf Stream • Loss of Ocean/Biosphere Carbon sinks Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

7. The issue is not can we stop climate change BUT can we stop catastopic runaway climate change? Rest of World India China Annex 1 (non-OECD) OECD minus USA USA Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

8. Deep cuts needed – EU, US, China etc 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 UK emissions 2010 Govt. target : 20% reduction The GAP which must be closed 2050 Govt. target : 60% reduction ---- Government target ____ Friends of the Earth Big Ask 3% annually ____ George Monbiot near linear >4% (90% by 2030) ____ George Monbiot 7% front-loaded (90% by 2030) ____ George Monbiot 10% front-loaded (90% by 2030) 1990 2000 2010 2020 Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

9. The Green fuel hype Can agrofuels in road transport AND now rail and aviation make a significant impact to GHG levels? Exponential Growth Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

10. US / EU Policy – going off the graph EU – 10% by 2020 (1% now) US – 20% by 2020 (4% now) 2020 2010 Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

11. Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers • Government and corporate subsidy and promotion • Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms • Year-on-year economic growth • Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics • Short term “energy security” fix • Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq • Stabilising Oil price? • EU / US “Oil independence” • New global mega-industry and infrastructure • agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors • refining, tankage and shipping sectors • commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn) Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

12. Do Agrofuels save emissions? • Agrofuel infrastructure is built on Fossil Fuel infrastructure • Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based – fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon emissions • Feedstock transport, shipping, ports • Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ; process chemicals Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

13. Incomplete agrofuel life-cycle studies • Ignores • Land-use change • Soil erosion • N2O emissions – chemical fertilizer impact greater in tropics • Micro studies – don’t scale up • Fuel stock transport miles • Economic/market effects – rape seed oil in EU is blended with Palm Oil Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

14. Poor savings even in isolation • Corn Ethanol – 13% savings – Berkeley 2006 study • Patzek – actually 50%-100% more CO2 for ethanol than for fossil fuels • The Red herring or the vegetarian car?! • Consumers conned about making significant carbon ‘savings’ Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

15. Massive emission exports from industralised nations to global South Massive land-use change in global South, and crop commodity traffic Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

16. Emission trickery Exporting emissions from Northern transport to Southern agriculture and landuse NB: Soil + Peat not included Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

17. Agrofuels are accelerating climate change Fires to clear land for palm oil, KalimantanPhoto by Nordin, Save our Borneo Deforestationfor oil palms, Colombia

18. Peat drainage and destruction Drainage • Dry peat - oxidises and, over time, emits all its carbon as CO2. 42-50 billion tonnes of carbon stored in those SE Asian peatlands. Fires • Many set by plantation companies, greatly accelerate the loss of carbon. • Of the 27.1 million hectares of peatland in South-east Asia, 12 million hectares are deforested and mostly drained. Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

19. Agrofuels as a new driver of peatland destruction Indonesia plans 20 million hectares new oil palm plantations to meet biodiesel demand. $17.4 billion investment deals in Indonesian palm oil agreed this year. According to 2006 FAO report, growth in European rapeseed oil biodiesel has significantly pushed up global palm oil prices. Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

20. Peat Destruction 2 Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

21. Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

22. Deforestation • “with partial deforestation the entire landscape could become drier and a domino effect could occur producing a ‘tipping point’ affecting the whole forest”. Conclusion of recent scientific conference • Amazon drying out – die-back threat increasing - 120 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

23. Amazon Deforestation and Drought Deforestation in Novo Progreso, Brazil ; Alberto Cesar/Greenpeace/AP Amazon drought 2005, Lake Rei Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

24. Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

25. Bio-agrofuels are nonsense at the system level • THE DILUTION FACTOR - 1% biofuels today • Assume 10% C emissions savings litre for litre • Total saving = 0.1% saving globally • Most optimistic 2020 : 5% BFs – 0.5% savings • Same savings can be made by: • Each driver driving 0.5% less (ie 50 miles for UK driver) • OR Each driver goes 2 mph slower • OR Tyres inflated properly • 20% - 50% DEMAND REDUCTION transport sector savings could be achieved in 10-20 years • Sustainable transport, modal shift, social planning - work-home relocation etc Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

26. Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Current EU energy policy Reduce vehicle emissions by 50% - smaller, more efficient vehicles 90% carbon emission reduction needed URGENTLY! Reduce journeys – planning, modal shift, decouple transport from economy Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power ? 1990 2000 2010 2020 Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

27. The Climate Context • 1st generation biofuels • Very little climate benefit • Often a climate disaster • Eg Indonesian peat lands • Deforestation tropics • Yet mass-scale infrastructure and investment ready for • 2nd generation biofuels • 15-20 years to develop • BUT emissions must be cut now • Biohazards (even now in R&D) • Deforestation boreal and temporate •   Transport sector DEMAND REDUCTION Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

28. Networking • What factsheets, lobbying support would be useful for your organisation? • Show solidarity with communities in the global South, please sign the call for an immediate moratorium on EU incentives for agrofuels, EU imports of agrofuels and EU agroenergy monocultures. http://www.econexus.info/biofuels.html • Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a blank email to biofuelwatch-subscribe@yahoogroups.com • www.biofuelwatch.org.uk ALERTS and RESOURCES eg: • Supporting Paraguayan communities • write to Tesco • Uganda’s Mabira rainforest - sugar cane plantations • Email us at info@biofuelwatch.org.uk if you would like to get more involved in the campaign. Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making