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Accumulating Evidence: Simple and Complex Choices in Humans and Animals

This overview explores cognitive models of decision-making, focusing on evidence accumulation models (EAMs). It covers various areas including rapid and slower choices, stages of decision-making, and future research directions.

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Accumulating Evidence: Simple and Complex Choices in Humans and Animals

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  1. Accumulating evidence: How humans (and animals) make simple (and some not so simple) choices or A cook’s tour of recent work. Andrew Heathcote

  2. Overview (http://www.tascl.org/) • Why are cognitive models of decision making necessary? • What are evidence accumulation models (EAMS)? • Rapid Choices: Monkeys, aging, task switching, inhibitory control in mind wandering and prospective memory. • Slower Choices: popcorn and mobile phones • Stages: Mental Rotation, Multitasking and Conflict Tasks • Where to from here? • NOT COVERED: Foundational EAM work, Law of Practice (and averaging distortion), Measuring RT Distribution, Recognition Memory, Absolute Identification, Nonlinear Dynamics, Mismatch Negativity (MMN), Brain Training • see http://www.tascl.org/andrew-heathcote.html

  3. Why Model Decisions? Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff Evidence Accumulation Model (EAM) EAM

  4. Old School Accumulate-to-threshold (DDM) Ratcliff, R., & Smith, P. L. (2004). A Comparison of Sequential Sampling Models for Two-Choice Reaction Time. Psychological Review, 111(2), 333–367. Ratcliff, R., & McKoon, G. (2008). The diffusion decision model: Theory and data for two-choice decision tasks. Neural Computation, 20(4), 873–922.

  5. New(castle) School Accumulate-to-threshold Brown, S., & Heathcote, A. (2005). A Ballistic Model of Choice Response Time. Psychological Review, 112(1), 117–128. Brown, S. D., & Heathcote, A. (2008). The simplest complete model of choice response time: Linear ballistic accumulation. Cognitive Psychology, 57(3), 153–178.

  6. Monkey Business Heitz, R. P., & Schall, J. D. (2012). Neural Mechanisms of Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff. Neuron, 76(3), 616–628. Cassey, P., Heathcote, A., & Brown, S. D. (2014). Brain and Behavior in Decision-Making. PLoS Computational Biology, 10(7): e1003700.

  7. Monkey Mixtures 5-10% of trial in the accuracy condition monkeys disobeyed instructions and went fast. Heitz & Schall (2012). Figure 3 Speed Neutral Accuracy Rae, B., Heathcote, A., Donkin, C., Averell, L. & Brown, S. (2014). The Hare and the Tortoise: Emphasizing speed can change the evidence used to make decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 40, 1226-1243.

  8. Why does it matter? • What causes slowing in people with Schizophrenia? • Slowing pervasive in Sz • Errors less studied/more equivocal • We found a tradeoff with rate effects masked by greater caution. Heathcote, A., Suraev, A., Curley, S., Love, J. & Michie, P. (invited resubmission). Decision processes and the slowing of simple choices in schizophrenia, Journal of Abnormal Psychology • Does aging slow your clock? • Diffusion-model analysis (many papers by Ratcliff and co): • slowed fingers (non-decision time), • more cautious (higher threshold), • the rate & quality of evidence preserved (except for fine perceptual discriminations). Speculation: might pre-dementia have a different signature?

  9. Caution or Inflexibility? Sub-thalamic nuclus (STN) controls caution: BOLD correlates with LBA. Forstmann, B. U., Dutilh, G., Brown, S., Neumann, J., Cramon, Von, D. Y., Ridderinkhof, K. R., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2008). Striatum and pre-SMA facilitate decision-making under time pressure. PNAS, 105(45), 17538–17542. Ability to change threshold depends on tract strength from pre-SMA. Forstmann, B. U., Anwander, A., Schäfer, A., Neumann, J., Brown, S., et al. (2010). Cortico-striatal connections predict control over speed and accuracy in perceptual decision making. PNAS, 107(36), 15916–15920. Tract strength weakened by age (less able to be “fast-but-careless”) Forstmann, B. U., Tittgemeyer, M., Wagenmakers, E. J., Derrfuss, J., Imperati, D., & Brown, S. (2011). The Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff in the Elderly Brain. Journal of Neuroscience, 31(47), 17242–17249. Joining the party: STN BOLD - DDM threshold correlated in task-switching. Mansfield, E. L., Karayanidis, F., Jamadar, S., Heathcote, A., & Forstmann, B. U. (2011). Adjustments of Response Threshold during Task Switching. Journal of Neuroscience, 31(41), 14688–14692.

  10. Task Switching <5 or ODD = left >5 or even = right 1 3 7 2 6 4 9 8 First application of EAM to task-switching: caution, rate and delay effects Karayanidis, F., Mansfield, E. L., Galloway, K. L., Smith, J. L., Provost, A., & Heathcote, A. (2009). Anticipatory reconfiguration elicited by fully and partially informative cues that validly predict a switch in task. Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience, 9(2), 202–215. Reduced switch costs in the aged (slower repeats as inflexible thresholds) Karayanidis, F., Whitson, L. R., Heathcote, A., & Michie, P. T. (2011). Variability in proactive and reactive cognitive control processes across the adult lifespan. Frontiers in Psychology, 2 (318).

  11. Cognitive Control Task Switching Parallel Model

  12. Unobserved accumulation The stop-signal paradigm: measure of inhibition

  13. Stop Signal Task X = press left O = press right X O O X X O O O X Success depends on the ability to inhibit and the stop-signal delay – short for the 1st (easy), long for the second (hard). Mittner, M., Boekel, W., Tucker, A., Turner, B., Heathcote, A. & Forstmann, B. U. (2014). When the brain takes a break: A model-based analysis of mind wandering, Journal of Neuroscience,34(49), 16286-16295. Badcock, J. C., Michie, P. T., Johnson, L., & Combrinck, J. (2002). Acts of control in schizophrenia: dissociating the components of inhibition. Psychological Medicine, 32(2), 287–298.

  14. Prospective Memory: Remembering to Remember tree fird juse wrangle store animus gring carpet spankel hopeful jussin nergul tree fird juse wrangle store animus gring carpet spankel hopeful jussin nergul Is it a WORD or a NONWORD? (but if it contains the syllable “tor” press thumb of right hand) Is it a WORD (middle finger) or a NONWORD (index finger)? Respond with left hand

  15. Prospective Memory Heathcote, A., Loft, S., & Remington, R. W. (2015). Slow down and remember to remember! A delay theory of prospective memory costs. Psychological Review. Strickland, Loft & Heathcote (in preparation). A race model of prospective memory

  16. Context Effects Movie goers were offered a small popcorn for $2 or a large one for $7. Everyone chose the cheaper option. $7 $6.50 $2 Then a third option was introduced, a medium popcorn for $6.50. This caused people to prefer the large popcorn with comments like "We may as well get it because it is only 50c more" Trueblood, J.S., Brown, S.D., Heathcote, A. & Busemeyer, J.R. (2013). Not just for consumers: Context effects are fundamental to decision-making, Psychological Science, 24, 901-908.

  17. Multi-attribute LBA Trueblood, J.S., Brown, S.D. & Heathcote, A. (2014). The Multi-attribute linear ballistic accumulator model of context effects in multi-alternative choice. Psychological Review, 121, 179-205.

  18. Best-Worst Task

  19. Best race Parallel Best-Worst LBA Best (fastest) Worst race Worst (fastest) Independent best and worst races occurring in parallel. Best race driven by drift rates d(x), worst race driven by drift rates 1/d(x) (cf. Marley & Pihlens, 2012)

  20. LBA: Best-Worst RT Distributions Predicted Predicted Observed Observed Hawkins, G. E., Marley, A. A. J., Heathcote, A., Flynn, T. N., Louviere, J. J., & Brown, S. D. (2014). Integrating cognitive process and descriptive models of attitudes and preferences. Cognitive Science, 38, 701-735. Jones, L.G., Hawkins, G.E., & Brown, S.D. (in press) Using best-worst scaling to improve psychological service delivery: An innovative tool for psychologists in organized care settings. Psychological Services

  21. Stages Provost, A., Johnson, B., Karayanidis, F., Brown, S. D., & Heathcote, A. (2013). Two routes to expertise in mental rotation. Cognitive Science, 37, 1321-1342.

  22. Complex Decisions The independent race equation: Eidels et al. (2010).

  23. Mental Rotation: Do They Match?

  24. Multi-Stage Theory Provost, A. & Heathcote, A. (2015). Titrating Decision Processes in the Mental Rotation Task, Psychological Review (invited resubmission)

  25. The Costs of Multi-Tasking

  26. The Costs of Multi-Tasking

  27. Fun Facts & Supertaskers Who Multitasks? (media and mobile phone when driving) No gender differences, rather those who can block out distractions! Positively correlated: perceived (overestimated!) multi-tasking ability, impulsivity & sensation seeking, Negatively correlated: working memory capacity(OSPAN). Sanbonmatsu, D. M., Strayer, D. L., Medeiros-Ward, N., & Watson, J. M. (2013). Who Multi-Tasks and Why? PLoS ONE, 8(1) Supertaskers Can do a driving simulator task and OSPAN with no decrement! Not your or me (2/1000)! Watson, J. M., & Strayer, D. L. (2010). Supertaskers: Profiles in extraordinary multitasking ability. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 17(4), 479–485. Gatekeeper: the Dual n-back task from hell! Heathcote, A., James R. Coleman, J.R., Eidels, A.,Watson, J.M., Houpt, J. & Strayer, D.L. (accepted 28/4/2015). Working memory’s workload capacity, Memory & Cognition. http://psych.newcastle.edu.au/~dje593/Gatekeeper_XOR/

  28. The Gatekeeper Task “P”” “Y” Double Target Block “P” Time Single Visual Block “O” Single Auditory Block “P” Dual 2-Back with Visual & Auditory Stimuli “Y” Non-target Allow

  29. OSPAN Test 7+2=10 N 18+2=19 3+4=7 3+12=14 L C T W 8+9=17 14-6=8 A C P H 5+10=15 8+8=16 7+5=12 ? N C L T W A H P C

  30. Conflict Tasks: e.g., the Stroop Task BLUE RED GREEN XXX XXXXX XXXX GREEN BLUE RED

  31. Conflict Tasks: e.g., the Simon Task RIGHT LEFT

  32. Conflict Tasks: e.g., the Simon Task

  33. Conflict Tasks: e.g., the Simon Task

  34. Simon conflict stimulus: Left symbol at right location Simon TPEA Phase 1 (pre-response phase) Evidence accumulates but a response cannot be made as the threshold is absent/infinite (Laming’s “premature sampling”) Phase 2 (response phase) Begins at time Te when stimulus “encoded” (i.e., conflict sufficiently although not fully resolved). In Phase 2 threshold present/finite, and accumulation occurs until response. Example showing TPEA at the start of Phase 2. =LBA

  35. Stroop-Simon: Delta and CAF Increasing (Stroop) delta function associated with slow errors

  36. Stroop-Simon: Parameters Replicates cross-over bias pattern in Simon, minimal effect in Stroop. Little difference Stroop & Simon v. d’ only cause of Stroop effect.

  37. The Flanker Task ? < or > ? >><>> >>>>> >><>> <<><< <<<<< >>>>>

  38. Flanker: White et al., (2011): Experiment 1. Increasing delta function Fast errors Similar to pattern for Vertical Simon but errors VERY fast

  39. Flanker: Parameters Strong bias crossover as in Simon, consistent with fast errors. d’(congruent) > d’(incongruent) Shows strong bias crossover (causing very fast errors) can be associated with an increasing delta function.

  40. Conclusions & Future Directions • Levels of Description: The Gas Law • Occam’s Razor: “entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity” (cross-validation/MDL/Bayes1) • Back to the 80’s: COCO global memory model • Wide-wake drunk (alcohol & energy drinks) • Pre-dementia vs. Aging: • Complex real-world tasks (PM & UAVs) 1http://www.utas.edu.au/health/study/cpdu/events/cpdu/2015/june/practical-bayesian-analysis-with-bayes-factor/_nocache

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