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The European voter in European elections

Explore the obstacles and considerations of European voters in the European Parliament elections, highlighting the cross-country differences and the mismatch between supply and demand. Discover the stylized facts on voting behavior and the main determinants of party choice based on empirical data from European Election Studies. Assess the fit between demand and supply in the party systems and draw both optimistic and pessimistic conclusions about the European electorate's ability to influence EU policies.

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The European voter in European elections

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  1. The European voter in European elections Wouter van der Brug University of Amsterdam

  2. Main question • What are the prospects for democratic representation of voters in the European parliament? • Obstacles to representation: • Cross-country differences in the considerations of voters (specific to the EU) • Supply and demand do not match (not specific to European elections)

  3. Stylized ‘facts’ on voting in EP-elections • Voters treat them largely as second order national elections, so they.. • vote on the basis of evaluations of national parties • are more likely to support radical parties • are less likely to turn out

  4. Stylized ‘facts’ about voting behaviour in EP and in national elections • Effects of socio-structural variables (social class, religion, etcetera) are weak • Strongest effects of ideological positions, issues and strategic considerations

  5. Analyses of European Elections Studies data show that: • the determinants of party choice are verysimilaracross the EU member states; • so, people make electoraldecisionsbased on verysimilarconsiderations. • The maindifference is in the importance of left/right.

  6. Two ideological dimensions are important to voters • Socio-economic (state vs market, incomeredistribution, welfare state arrangements) • Socio-cultural (immigration, civicintegration of migrants, European unification) • What do the party systems look like?

  7. Fit between demand and supply (2010)

  8. Fit between demand and supply (2010)

  9. Conclusions (optimistic and pessimistic) • Optimistic: In somewaysonecouldarguethatthere is one European electorate; • Pessimistic: EP elections do notprovide a mechanismforvoterstoinfluence EU policies.

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