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A true European voter?

The true European voter Prof. Dr. Bernhard Weßels Seminar of European Ideas Network jointly with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), ‘The European Electorate’ Brussels, European Parliament, February 10, 2014. A true European voter?.

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A true European voter?

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  1. The true European voterProf. Dr. Bernhard WeßelsSeminar of European Ideas Network jointly with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), ‘The European Electorate’Brussels, European Parliament, February 10, 2014

  2. A true European voter? Oneelectorateormany: 28 second-order national elections? Onecalculusofvoting, ortwo? National electionsand European Parliamentelections One Person, twoelections, oneparty, or not? Summary/Conclusions

  3. 1. One electorate or many: 28 second-order national elections? Turnout in European Parliament Elections

  4. 1. One electorate or many: 28 second-order national elections? Turnout differences between countries, 2009  High turnoutdifferences ≠ one European electorate

  5. 2. One calculus of voting, or two? Hypotheses on the differences in voters‘ calculus • “Voting with the heart”: The magnitude of sincere votingshould be higher in EP elections; this is possible because voters do not „have to pay attention to questions of government formation or other consequences of election outcomes.” Van der Eijk and Franklin (Elections and Voters, 2009: 135) • “Voting with the boot”: Less important elections can be used as barometer elections to signal dissatisfaction with the national government’s performance. • The more second-order an election is, the more important for party choice is mobilization by parties and candidates.

  6. 2. One calculus of voting, or two? More voting with the heart?  Little difference in determinants ≠ a different European voter

  7. 3. One Person, two elections, one party, or not? Vote switching Vote national ≠ EP election 24.3 % Vote switching from one national election to the next 35.0 % Results from panel data, German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) Turnout 2009 EP Elections 43,3 Turnout 2009 Bundestag Elections 70,8 Two different electorates by composition Mean loss or win of governments’ parties compared to national election Mean loss, win -8,7 Max loss -25,8 Max win 7,1 Partial electorateandconsequence

  8. 4. Summary/Conclusion Summary/Conclusions Differential mobilization leads to voting by a partial electorate. EP elections mobilize less not because less efforts of candidates, but because of the number problem of representation in EP elections: less candidates/ representatives for more voters. The partial electorate is more prone to protest in terms of voice. Protest seems to be less strategic than sincere. Whether exit (non-voting) is protest is unknown. The partial European electorate may resemble a European voter more than the whole electorate by taking European aspects more into account. Thus, parties which make a difference to the consensus of the established parties can profit and have profited from the partiality of the European electorate.

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