Canadian Regional Population Growth and the Local Socio-Economic Conditions *

1. Canadian Regional Population Growth and the Local Socio-Economic Conditions* Paper presented at the special session of the AAG annual meeting, entitled "Exploring the New Spatial Patterns of Economic Diversification and Restructuring in Europe and Canada” Boston, April 16, 2008 By Alfred Hecht, PhD, Dr. (h.c.) Professor Emeritus and Associate Director, Viessmann Research Centre on Modern Europe at Laurier (rough draft – not for quoting) *the research was sponsored in part by the CEPRA/AUCC/CIDA project number 52, entitled: “The Economic, Geographical and Institutional Aspects of Economic Growth in Russian Regions”

2. Abstract • In this paper Canadian population growth rates, at the census division level, for the 1991-2001 and the 2001-2006 periods and their differences, are examined. It is hypothesized that population growth in the various census divisions of Canada, is related significantly to the socio-economic conditions in them as measured in 2000. The question is raised if growth in the 1991-2001 period relates more to the 2000 socio-economic conditions, then growth between 2001-2006. In other words does population growth relate to past socio-economic conditions or to future conditions. Two multiple regression models are run with each of the growth rates as dependent variables. For independent variables some 45 socio-economic variable were collected from the 2001 Canadian census as found in the community profile files of the 293 census divisions.  The regression equations accounted for a high proportion (R square in the high 70s) of the variance of the growth variables. Each had 10 and 13 independent variables entering the equation respectively. It seems that jobs, income, housing, skills, education and language conditions do strongly affect population grows at the census division level in Canada.

3. Provinces and Territories of Canada

4. Development/Growth Theories[1] • Growth Pole Theory • Staple Growth Theory • Comparative Advantage Theory • Core Periphery Theory • Myrdal’s Cumulative Causation Theory • Hirschman’s Backward and Forward Linkage Theory • Heckscher-Ohlin Trade Theory • Economic Base Multiplier Theory • Kondratieff Wave Theory • Export Base Theory • Schumpeterian Growth Theory • Productivity Growth Theory • Dependency Theory • Clark-Fischer Development Model • Input Output Model • Rostow’s Stage Growth Model • Alternate Theory: growth depends on the socio-economic conditions in the origin and destination region [1] No one reference will cover and discuss all of these. A start can be found in J. O. Wheeler’s et all book Economic Geography, Wiley, 1996. Readers will also find Peter Dicken and Peter E. Lloyd’s classical text Location in Space: Theoretical Perspectives in Economic Geography, Harper, 1990 quite useful. Others of interest are: Paul Krugman, Development, Geography, and Economic Theory, MIT Press, 1995, Klaus Grimm, Theorien der Unterentwicklung und Entwicklungstrategien, Westdeutscher Verlag, 1997, James D. Cockcroft, Andre Gunther Frank and Dale L. Johnson, Dependence and Underdevelopment, Anchor Books, 1972, Paul Knox and John Agnew, The Geography of the World Economy , Edward Arnold, 1989 and L. Needleman (ed) Regional Analysis , Penguin, 1968.

5. What causes differential growth in the Canadian census division population in the late 20th and early 21st century? Hypothesis It is hypothesised that in Canada the following human related conditions, in a census division. are causing regions to attract or reject additional population: Demographic, Religion, Language, Education, Mobility, Income, Labour, Work Situation and Housing i.e. Population growth, in a census division, is a function of the above socio-economic conditions i.

7. Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/data/profiles/community/Index.cfm?Lang=E

11. Dependent variable, measured at each of the 293 Canadian Census Divisions. Growth V4 Population increase 1991-2001 in % V4b Population increase 2001-2006 in %

12. Independent variables, measured at each of the 293 Census Division levels in 2001 or 2006.Demographic, Religion and Linguistic Demographic V3 2001 population v6 Median age in the community v14 % of visible minorities in the community v41 % of one-person households Religion v44 % of population that are protestants v45 % of people with no religious affiliation Linguistic V7 Language first learned and still understood, % English V8 Language first learned and still understood, % French V22 Language used most often at work - English and/or French (as %)

13. Independent variables, measured at each of the 293 Census Division levels in 2001 or 2006.Education and Mobility Education V15 Population 20-24 years of age studying full time (%)  V16 Population 20-34 years old with a university certificate, diploma or degree V17 Population 35-44 years old with a university certificate, diploma or degree V18 Population 45-64 years old with a university certificate, diploma or degree  V5 University present; 1-yes, 0-no Mobility V9 % of population, one year or older, that did not move in the previous year  V10 % of population, 1 year and older, that lived in a different province or country 1 year ago V11 % of population 5 years or older that did not move in the last 5 years  v12 % of population 5 years and older, that lived in a different province or country 5 years ago V13 1991 to 2001 Census Division in-migration as a % of total population 

14. Independent variables, measured at each of the 293 Census Division levels in 2001 or 2006.Income Income V19 % of population that have some earnings and are working full time V20 Average income of all workers  V21 Average income of full time workers only  V36 Median total income of persons 15 years of age and over  V37 Earned income as % of total   V38 Income from government transfers as % of total income   V39 Other money as % of total income  V40 Median income ($) of couple families 

15. Independent variables, measured at each of the 293 Census Division levels in 2001 or 2006.Labour Labour V25 Labour force participation rate - %  V26 Labour force employment rate - %  V27 Labour force unemployment rate - %  V28 Experienced labour force in manufacturing industries - % V29 Experienced labour force in fire and real estate industries - % V30 Experienced labour force in education and health industries - % V31 Experienced labour force in business services industries - % V32 Management occupations (%)  V33 Business, finance and administration occupations (%)  V34 Natural and applied sciences occupations (%)  V35 Social science, education, government service and religion Occupations (%)

16. Independent variables, measured at each of the 293 Census Division levels in 2001or 2006 Work situation, Housing Work situation V23 Worked at usual place (%) V24 Car transportation to work in % Housing V42 % of owned dwellings   V43 Average value of owned dwelling ($)

19. Table 6: Independent variables in v4 and v4b regression equationsVariables in equation Definition of variables v4 v4b V43 Average value of owned dwelling ($)   x V19 % of population that have some earnings and are working full time x x log v6 Median age in the community x x V8 Language: French mother tongue as % of total population x  V21 Average income of full time workers only x x V11 % of population 5 years or older that did not move in the last 5 years x x V9 % of population, one year or older, that did not move in the previous year x  V42 % of owned dwellings x x V37 Earned income as % of total x x V16 Population 20-34 years of age with a university certificate, diploma or degree x  V31 Experienced labour force in business services industries - % x  v33 Business, finance and administration occupations (%) x V41 % of one-person households x V7 Language: English mother tongue as % of total population x V39 Other money as % of total income x V38 Income from government transfers as % of total income  x V26 Labour force employment rate - % x V35 Social science, education, government service and religion Occupations (%) x V28 Experienced labour force in manufacturing industries - %  x

22. Summary • Holding other things constant, population growth relate significantly to the following variables for both periods: • % of population that have some earnings and are working full time+ive • Median age in the community -ive • Average incomeof full time workers only -ive • % of population 5 years or older that did not move in the last 5 years -ive • % of owned dwellings  +ive • Earned income as % of total +ive • Holding other things constant, population growth for the 1991-2001 period related significantly to the following socio-economic conditions: • Average value of owned dwelling ($) +ive • Language: French mother tongue as % of total population +ive • % of population, one year or older, that did not move in the previous year+ive • Population 20-34 years of age with a university certificate, diploma or degree +ive • Experienced labour force in business services industries, in % -ive • Holding other things constant, population growth for the 2001-06 period related significantly to the following socio-economic conditions % of one-person households -ive • Language: English mother tongue as % of total population -ive • Other money as % of total income +ive • Income from government transfers as % of total income +ive • Labour force employment rate - % +ive • Social science, education, government service and religion Occupations (%) +ive • Experienced labour force in manufacturing industries in %  +ive • Business, finance and administration occupations (%) +ive As can be seen the variables that were significant for the both periods and for the two different periods varied somewhat. It points in the direction that during different periods the factors that cause people to migrate or to stay will vary. Hence it is somewhat dangerous to have similar policies for growing and declining regions and for different economic cycles. Although there is some communality in the factors or causes that relate to growth as table 10 shows, policies probably should be flexible. They should ‘kick in’ as conditions change.

23. Conclusion • The high regression value between the 2001 socio-economic variables and population growth in the 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 periods, suggest a close causal relationship between them • The fact that the R square value is slightly higher for the 1991-2001 increase, suggest that people tend to move to regions with perceived better future conditions • The fewer explanatory variable for the 1991-2001 growth period would also suggest that growth, due in part due to in and out-migration, may be based upon a simple future condition evaluation • Most traditional growth theories may not be that important in broad regional growth differences • The fact that, both past and future population growth, was strongly related to conditions in 2001, suggest that Myrdal’s Cumulative Causation Theory may be the underlying explanation • The fact that we are comparing 10 and 5 year population growth variables, may have affected the results • Since this study did not remove different regional birth and death rates, also could have affected the results • Maybe distance between census divisions could also have affected growth in any one • Future regional growth studies should take into consideration regional attractiveness as an explanatory variable