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Inclusion of NOE in the Dutch National Accounts

Learn about the background, scope, methodology, and results of including Non-Observed Economic activities in the Dutch National Accounts. Explore estimates for underground, illegal, informal sector, household production, and missed production. Understand the challenges and uncertainties in estimating the Non-Observed Economy.

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Inclusion of NOE in the Dutch National Accounts

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  1. Inclusion of NOE in the Dutch National Accounts UNECE, 6-9 May 2014, Geneva

  2. Content • Background • Scope • Methodology • Results

  3. Background • NA need to be exhaustive • Starting the 2010 ESA revision illegal activities are included • Other non-observed economic activities were already covered in the Dutch National Accounts

  4. Non-observed economy Scope is arbitrary. Five sub-categories: • Underground production • Illegalproduction • Informal sector production • Household productionforownfinaluse • Production missed due to deficiencies in data collection program

  5. Methodology For underground and white spots built upon the existing methodology, estimates for illegal are completely new after revision. Activity specific method. Based upon many ad hoc research findings and additional assumptions. During the integration phase corrected for double counting.

  6. Methodology – example prostitution The consumption is estimatedusing: • Number of prostitutes -> 25.000 in 1999 • Number of working weeks a year -> 40 • Averageprice per visit -> € 50 in 2008 • Number of clients per week -> 20 Consumption in 1995 = 520 mlneuros Consumption in 2013 = 869 mlneuros Adjustements are made forimports and exports, and estimatesforintermediateuse are calculatedfollowingpreviousmethods.

  7. Results – prostitution activities

  8. Results - sensitivity

  9. Results Table 4.1 Estimates for various underground activities, 2010

  10. Results Table 4.3 Estimates white spots, 2010

  11. Results – Effects on GVA, 2010

  12. Discussion and conclusions • NOE is hidden by nature, resulting estimates are subject to significant uncertainty. • Only estimates for the most important activities • Challenging to construct time series

  13. Thank you Arjan Bruil Statistics Netherlands a.bruil@cbs.nl +3170 337 4531

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