A Decision Support System for Ecosystem-Based Management of Tropical Coral Reef Environments

1. A Decision Support System for Ecosystem-Based Management ofTropical Coral Reef Environments F. Muller-Karger, M. Eakin, L. Guild, M. Vega, R. Nemani, T. Christensen, L. Wood, C. Ravillious, C. Hu, C. Nim, J. Li, C. Fitzgerald, J. Hendee, L. Gramer, S. Lynds NASA and Earth ScienceEarth Science Division Applied Sciences Program

2. Partnerships • NOAA NESDIS/CRW-CRCP (M. Eakin, T. Christensen, J. Li, G. Liu) • NOAA AOML / ICON/CREWS-CRCP (J. Hendee, L. Gramer) • NASA Ames (L. Guild, R. Nemani) • UNEP-WCMC (L. Wood, C. Ravilious, C. Fitzgerald) • U. South Florida (F. Muller-Karger, C. Hu, M. Vega, B. Barnes) • U. Colorado-CIRES (S. Lynds) • Australia (W. Skirving, S. Heron / NOAA)

3. Acknowledgements • Funding provided by: • NASA Applied Sciences Program • Woody Turner • 2008 Ecological Forecasting application area • 4-year program (2009-2013) • NOAA • NESDIS Coral reef Watch • UNEP WCMC (World Conservation Monitoring Centre)

4. Objectives of the Program • Assess and meet needs in coral reef research, management, education • Assess value of high-resolution (1 km ) data • (MODIS, AVHRR, other) • Link to higher-resolution maps • Global Coral Reef Millennium Map • Landsat, other present and future sensors

5. Accomplishments: 2010-2011 • Completed user survey for NOAA Coral Reef Watch products. • Developed global high-resolution 4km SST climatology • Deployed a website with 1 km Coral Reef Watch (CRW) products for the Florida Keys. • Developed prototype cold water event index (cold snap index) for the Florida Keys. • UNEP WCMC integrated the NASA Coral Reef Millennium Map into their online databases with a Mapserver interface (http://data.unep-wcmc.org/datasets/13).

6. MARK – add your slides here • I have some slides here you can use (or delete…) Add: • CRW background • Approach to the NASA-NOAA DSS program • New work on climatologies • New medium and high res high temperature stress products (AVHRR, MODIS)

7. High Resolution Prototype CRW Products based on: • 4 km AVHRR Global Pathfinder • Climatology • 1 km MODIS and AVHRR • (Test area: Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary)

8. High resolution preserves spatial patterns of importance to reefs • High-resolution (1-km) AVHRR SST imagery (NOAA-16 satellite) showing small-scale (∼1020 km, ∼< 1 ◦C) frontal eddies (annotated with black arrows) along the shallow isobaths in the Florida Straits • January 22, 2002 at 7:36 GMT and January 23, 2002 at 18:45 GMT. • Eddies are due to shelf wave dynamics, and they cannot be detected by coarser resolution data (4 km or lower).

9. Comparison of HotSpot on Sep 17, 2005 4km resolution HotSpot from Pathfinder nighttime only SST without filling gaps From CRW 50km operational HotSpot

10. Issue One: Climatology Objective: • Build new climatology at higher resolution Approach: • Use Pathfinder SST • 20 y, cross-referenced • 4 km, nightime,best data • Period: • Original 50-km NOAA Operational: • Jan 1985 to Dec 1993 excluding 1991 and 1992 • New approach: • Jan 1985 to Dec 2006 • Issues: • Gaps in space and time • Approach: • Filled gaps in time, then in space Pathfinder SST v5 Percent ‘low quality’ data 1985-2006

11. Maximum Monthly Mean (MMM) SST Derived from Pathfinder 4 km Monthly Climatology Gulf of Mexico / Florida Keys area

12. High Resolution Stress IndicesCRW ‘HotSpot’ • Used USF real-time LAC 1-km AVHRR SST images • Derived twice-weekly averages • Interploated Pathfinder 4km MMM climatology to 1km| • Index: • HotSpot= SST - MMM_SST_climatology • The ‘HotSpot’ highlights anomalies 1.0 °C ≥ MMM SST climatology (yellow to red color)

13. CRW HotSpot product for the CaribbeanAugust 8, 2011

14. USF HotSpotproducts August 8, 2011 E50_hotspot.20110808.florida.png E4km_hotspot.20110808.florida.png

15. CRW HotSpot July 25, 2011 August 8, 2011 15

16. HotSpot products for the West Florida Shelf August 29, 2011 NASA MODIS SST Based on Pathfinder 4km MMM USF AVHRR SST Based on Pathfinder 4km MMM

17. High Resolution Stress IndicesCRW ‘Degree-Heating Weeks’ • Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) calculated using HotSpots: •   DHWs = 0.5 * Summation of previous 24 twice-weekly HotSpots, where HotSpots have to be at least 1.0 °C to be accumulated.

18. Methods • Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) was calculated using the HotSpots that we produced previously. • Calculations were done as implemented by NOAA. •   DHWs = 0.5 * Summation of previous 24 twice-weekly HotSpots, where HotSpots have to be at least 1.0 °C to be accumulated.

19. CRW DHW product for the CaribbeanSeptember 15, 2011

20. USF DHW products for the West Florida ShelfSeptember 15, 2011 E50_DHW.20110915.florida.png E4km_DHW.20110915.florida.png

21. Cold Stress Index • Corals have a lower temperature limit under which they are susceptible to stress and death • Objective: • develop high spatial resolution cold-stress index to help monitor and forecast coral bleaching or mortality due to cold stress. Acknowledgement: Collaboration between M. Vega - Rodriguez, F. Muller - Karger, J. Li, C. M. Eakin, L. Guild, C. Hu, G. Liu, S. Lynds, R. Nemani, S. Heron, G. Quiles - Pérez, D. Lirman, R. Ruzicka 21

22. 2010 Florida Keys Case Study • JAN 2010: Anomalously cold temperatures • Widespread mortality in coral reefs • SST observations helped guide a field survey In situ temperatures 22

23. Developing a ‘Cold Snap’ Index • Daily AVHRR Pathfinder SST • (4 km – remapped to 1km) • vs. daily USF daily SST • (AVHRR 1 km LAC) Approach: Nighttime - only AVHRR Pathfinder (v5.0) SST data at a 4 km spatial resolution (no gap filling) used to create higher resolution climatologies from 1985 – 2006 23

24. ‘So what?’Linking science and management • Ultimately, the goal is to improve our ability to alert reef managers around the world of bleaching-level stress, so they can take appropriate actions. • In the Florida Keys, the CRW products have already helped: • Guide Rapid Response efforts to assess reef conditions • Inform the public about what may be happening on the reef when corals are visibly stressed

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