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Trends in Job Growth over the Next 10 Years: A Look at Some Compelling Data

Trends in Job Growth over the Next 10 Years: A Look at Some Compelling Data. Brad Eldredge PhD Research and Analysis Bureau MT Dept. of Labor and Industry. Montana’s Current Job Market. Mix of Training and Education Requirements Wages Employment Growth. Education Mix: Workers Aged 25-44.

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Trends in Job Growth over the Next 10 Years: A Look at Some Compelling Data

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  1. Trends in Job Growth over the Next 10 Years: A Look at Some Compelling Data Brad Eldredge PhD Research and Analysis Bureau MT Dept. of Labor and Industry

  2. Montana’s Current Job Market • Mix of Training and Education Requirements • Wages • Employment Growth

  3. Education Mix: Workers Aged 25-44 MT USA 27% 27% 41% 44% 29% 32% Source: Current Population Survey, 2002-2004

  4. Percent of Population with College Degrees

  5. Bachelor’s Degrees and Per Capita Personal Income, MT Counties 2000 *Natural log of per capita income was used in the regression analysis

  6. Education and Training Requirements, MT vs. USA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Survey, May 2006

  7. Training Requirements by Career Cluster Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Survey, May 2006

  8. Education by Career Clusters (Percentages) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Survey, May 2006

  9. Real Wages in Montana: The last 30 Years (2006 Dollars) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

  10. MT Wages as a Percent of US Wages: 1977 to 2005 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  11. Median Earnings over the past 12 months by educational attainment of the population over 25 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005

  12. Average Wage by Training Requirements Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Statistics Program

  13. Average Wages by Career Cluster Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Statistics Program

  14. Job Growth Outlook: 2004-2014 • Methodology • Statewide projections • Projections by educational attainment • Projections by career cluster

  15. Projections Methodology • Occupational projections are based on industry projections • Industry projections use three methods -shift share analysis -trend models -regression analysis

  16. Annual Job Growth, 1996-2006 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

  17. Actual Job Growth, 1995-2005 • 1995 Employment = 506,891 • 2005 Employment = 613,425 • Annual Growth Rate = 1.9% • Growth over 10 years = 21.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  18. Statewide Job Projections, 2004-2014 • 2004 Employment = 572,687 • 2014 Projection = 673,926 • Projected Annual Growth Rate = 1.6% • Projected Growth over 10 years = 17.7%

  19. Projected Growth by Training Requirements: 2004-2014

  20. Projected Growth by Training Requirements: 2004-2014

  21. Projected Growth by Career Cluster

  22. Detailed Projections Information • www.ourfactsyourfuture.org -Projections by detailed occupation -Montana Career Information System • www.bls.gov -National Employment Projections -Occupational Outlook Handbook

  23. Labor Force Participation Rates by Education

  24. Unemployment Rates by Education

  25. MT vs. USA Demographics Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 estimates

  26. Labor Force and Population

  27. Take Away Points • Montanans need access to career information in order to make informed decisions • There is no doubt that education pays • Montana is facing near and long term labor shortages, so we cannot afford to have discouraged workers

  28. Contact Information Brad Eldredge (406)444-5474 beldredge@mt.gov www.ourfactsyourfuture.org

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