1 / 18

Overview

TPP or ASEAN+N: a Regional Perspective Stephen Yan-Leung Cheung Chair, Hong Kong Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation 4 October, 2012 Taipei. Overview. Part I: Asia and the ASEAN track Part II: Asia and the TPP track Part III: Case study on Impacts. Part I ：. Asia and the ASEAN Track.

dawnperkins
Download Presentation

Overview

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. TPP or ASEAN+N:a Regional PerspectiveStephen Yan-Leung CheungChair, Hong Kong Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation4 October, 2012Taipei

  2. Overview • Part I: Asia and the ASEAN track • Part II: Asia and the TPP track • Part III: Case study on Impacts

  3. Part I： Asia and the ASEAN Track

  4. Regional Strategy in the 21st Century • Actively involved in the Asian economic integration • Implementing FTA strategy • Deepening economic reforms • Maintaining stable regional environment

  5. China’s FTA Map Source: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China

  6. ASEAN+N Partnership • Rapid development over past decades • Wide-ranged and multi-faceted • Goods, Service, 2-way investment, Energy, Transport, Culture… • Multi-level cooperation mechanism • China-ASEAN summit, Foreign Ministers Meeting, Senior Officials Consultations, Joint Cooperation Committee… • Open and inclusive partnership

  7. Rapid development: trade between China and ASEAN Source: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China

  8. Future of the ASEAN Track • ASEAN+1 • ASEAN+3 • ASEAN+6 • ASEAN+6+2 （Russia, U.S.） • …… • FTAAP

  9. Part II： Asia and the TPP Track

  10. TPP：21st Century and High-Standard Agreement • Covering a wider range of topics than established FTAs • Open to newcomer: including accession clause (which is very unusual for a FTA) • Geographically, a real trans-pacific FTA • Binding agreements • With U.S. engaged

  11. Potential Benefits for Major Players • Increasing market access, competiveness and profitability • Increasing market size • Easier capital/investment flows • Uniform rules and standards • Rule-making • Stimulating reform

  12. TPP Negotiation is still UP INTHE AIR • Too ambitious may not be feasible • No clear guideline for how to integrate the various established regional and bilateral agreements into TPP framework • Bargaining costs roar as more countries join in the negotiation

  13. Gains for Major Players Income Effect under Different Scenarios Source: Shen Mingshui, “A cost benefits analysis of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP): a Chinese perspective”, Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies, 2012.

  14. Negotiation covering sensitive areas and issues • Environmental protection, Intellectual property rights, Labor, Financial service, Institutions, Telecommunication, … • Reforms of State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) • Convertibility of the capital account

  15. Will the TPP Negotiation Prevail? • Japan and Korea have strong interest, but both hesitate • China would NOT Join the Negotiation in the Short and Medium Term • TPP and ASEAN will coexist, with U.S. leading the former, China actively engaging in the latter

  16. Part III: Potential Impacts on China • Trade diversion • Weakening China’s influence around Asia-Pacific • “Spaghetti bowl phenomenon” increases trade costs (complex rules of origin) • Impeding structural reform

  17. Possible Policy Responses of China • Expanding domestic demand • Product differentiation • Concluding bilateral or multilateral FTAs • China-Japan-Korea FTA • China-Korea FTA • … • Consolidating China-ASEAN • “Greater China FTA” • Increasing overseas direct investment (ODI)

  18. Thank You!

More Related