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Climate Review - October 2013: SST Anomalies and Anomaly Tendencies

Insights from Huug van den Dool on global SST patterns and tendencies in October 2013, including notable anomalies in various ocean regions. Acknowledgment of key contributors to climate data. Forecast projections for 2014 and past hurricane trends. NMME forecast update and impact of government shutdown.

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Climate Review - October 2013: SST Anomalies and Anomaly Tendencies

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  1. Climate Review – Oct 2013 Huug van den Dool Acknowledge Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, the press, Qin Zhang, Emily Becker, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Luke He

  2. To fly

  3. Iris in bloom after 4 inches of rain Oct 9-11 and 1st frost Oct 23-24-25 2013 DC area

  4. Constructed Analogue on SST and OCN

  5. August 2013: 393.11 ppm August 2012: 389.82 ppm The new 2012 data from obs are very close to the early projections with a global annual mean of 393.51 ppmv, it reflects about a 2.3 ppmv yearly increase. 2014 projected values around 398.11.. (From e-mail Yu-Tai, for the GFS implementation.)

  6. Global SST Anomaly (0C) and Anomaly Tendency • Small negative SSTA presented in the eastern tropical and NW Pacific. • Negative phase of PDO associated SSTA pattern continued in N. Pacific. • Positive SSTA was observed in the N. Atlantic Ocean. • Tendency was small in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. • Cooling tendency presented in the NW Pacific. • SSTA associated with negative phase of PDO strengthened. • A very strong horse-shoe pattern was observed in the N. Atlantic, may caused by negative phase of NAO. Fig. G1. Sea surface temperature anomalies (top) and anomaly tendency (bottom). Data are derived from the NCEP OI SST analysis, and anomalies are departures from the 1981-2010 base period means.

  7. By Nov. 6, 2013: 12 total storms, 2 hurricanes; 0 major hurricanes Since 1960, there were four years without major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean: 1994, 1986, 1972 and 1968.

  8. NMME forecasts ahead of schedule!!!!!!, compare to govt shutdown

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