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Auroop R Ganguly Oak Ridge National Laboratory Email: gangulyar@ornl

Regional and decadal analysis of climate change induced extreme hydrometeorological stresses informs adaptation and mitigation policies. A Climate Change War Game. Auroop R Ganguly Oak Ridge National Laboratory Email: gangulyar@ornl.gov. ORNL Co-Authors: Esther S Parish Nagendra Singh

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Auroop R Ganguly Oak Ridge National Laboratory Email: gangulyar@ornl

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  1. Regional and decadal analysis of climate change induced extreme hydrometeorological stresses informs adaptation and mitigation policies A Climate Change War Game Auroop R Ganguly Oak Ridge National Laboratory Email: gangulyar@ornl.gov ORNL Co-Authors: Esther S Parish Nagendra Singh Karsten Steinhaeuser David J Erickson III Marcia Branstetter Anthony W King Erin J Middleton 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society January 15th 2009; Phoenix, AZ, USA

  2. A Climate Change War GameDescription A role playing exercise • Four largest emitters discuss climate policy • UN Secretary General presses for emission target • Players balance national interests and global goal The Players • Diverse backgrounds • Climate scientists • Security strategists • Environmental policy experts • Business leaders • Forty national delegates • United States • European Union • China • India • UN Team • Center for a New American Security • John Podesta: UN Secretary General • UN Sec. Gen.’s Science Team • Rest of the world (observer status) Coverage • The journal Nature (Blogs, News) • ABC News Documentary • Videocon by IPCC chairman Pachauri • Prominent players from US, EU, Asia John Podesta (left) of CNAS, the UN secretary general in the game, was Clinton’s White House chief of staff and led Obama’s transition team 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  3. A Climate Change War GameObjectives • Define climate change for national security • Educate players with diverse backgrounds • Observe/understand negotiation process ORNL provided the climate science 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  4. A Climate Change War GameThe Premise The year is 2015… • Natural Hazards / Climate Refugees • Environmental Refugees from Bangladesh • Category 5 Hurricane in Miami • Climate Change is “real” • Impacts on lives and economy • Public calls for action • UN Secretary General calls for action • 2012 Copenhagen provides background • Urgent meeting of four largest emitters • Prelude to major global agreement Photos from http://climateinteractive.wordpress.com/2008/09/24/supporting-the-clout-and-climate-change-war-game/ 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  5. A Climate Change War GamePublicity “Much as the "hockey stick graph" became an icon for global warming itself, the "Angry Red Chart" became a symbol of the science that was driving negotiations back in the year 2015” (Jeff Tollefson, Nature Blogs) Nature Blogs: http://blogs.nature.com/news/blog/events/climate_war_game/ 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  6. UN Secretary General charges the country delegates with four tasks • The Four Negotiation Areas • Natural (e.g., water) resources scarcity • Hazards and humanitarian aid • Migration and population shifts • Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions • Adaptation & Mitigation • Adaptation: “Manage the Unavoidable” • Mitigation: “Avoid the Unmanageable” CNAS Website for Climate Change War Game: http://www.cnas.org/node/149 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  7. ORNL Climate Change WarGaming Website http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/WarGaming/ 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  8. Climate Science Support by ORNL • CCSM3 Climate Model: One of the primary climate models used for IPCC AR4 • IPCC SRES A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) scenario: Initially considered “extreme”, recent emissions agree with A1FI • Global Projections: 1.4o spatial grids with global coverage; Daily to 6-hourly for 2000–2099; T85 Gaussian Grid • Regional Assessments: Focus on four regions which are the largest emitters for the four sets of players • Decadal Projections: Data analysis for decadal change (e.g., change in decadal averages or extremes) • Climate Extremes: Extreme hydrometeorological stresses or events caused or exacerbated by climate change 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  9. Global Assessments: The 'Angry Red Chart' Nature Blogs Courtesy Nature Blog (Tollefson) CNAS (John Podesta) Pew Center (Gulledge) CNAS (Sharon Burke) 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  10. 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  11. 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  12. Regional Extreme Events 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  13. 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  14. Regional Extreme Events 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  15. Regional Extreme Impacts 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  16. Plausible Policy-Relevant Insights • China: Water scarcity and food stress, especially in the East • India: Water stress from de-glaciation & mega-delta floods • US: Midwest heat waves; Water stress in West (dry & warm) • Europe: Regional warming; Water stress in Spain & Portugal • Water emerges as the central issue for impacts Insights are exemplary rather than exhaustive and rather preliminary. Refer AMS abstract and README in ORNL’s climate wargaming website. 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  17. Follow-up A1FI/CCSM3 climate insights Higher mean, but greater geographic variability and uncertainty, of change and extremes • Statistically significant increase in global temperatures compared to other scenarios in mid to late 21st century • Larger temperature changes and more intense heat waves in most regions of the globe in the 21st century • Significant bias and variance at regional scales even for decadal averaged statistics of change and extremes • Uncertainty computed from recent projections and observations larger (statistically significant) than ensembles • Clearer signal for temperature change and related extremes but uncertainty dominates for hydrology Manuscripts under preparation 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  18. Lessons Learnt • Relevance of the science • Global assessments useful for emissions policy and international treaties, laws, or norms • Regional assessments useful for adaptation decisions and bilateral or multilateral agreements • Policy makers may not question climate science, especially at global scale, but may need justification for local impacts • Climate extremes (both extreme stresses and extreme events) are among the most relevant for policy negotiations • Importance of uncertainty • Uncertainty information is useful and actionable, especially since policy makers routinely deal with uncertainty • Uncertainty cannot be an excuse for inaction as delayed action can cause larger change and more damaging impacts • Quantification of known uncertainty translates to risk assessments while characterization of unknown uncertainty supports policy • Uncertainty may provide worse case situations for infrastructure design or most likely / best case for resource allocation 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  19. Translating Science to Policy • The “angry red chart” visual motivated much of the global consensus around emissions • Example: The policy-makers from all four regions tried desperately to agree on some common language to reduce emissions • Adaptation decisions and policies were based on hard realities on the ground • Example: Advanced US capabilities for disaster management around the globe were a primary consideration that dominated the discussions around hazards and humanitarian aid • Clear depiction of regional extreme stresses or events, including uncertainty, motivated bilateral and trilateral agreements, leading to global consensus • Example: The India team utilized regional maps of hydrologic / water extremes and stresses to motivate delegates from the US team to extract international norms regarding water treaties, in spite of some resistance from the China team 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

  20. ORNL Websites and Contributors Acknowledgments (ORNL: Alphabetical):Budhendra L BhaduriJohn B Drake Gary K Jacobs Aaron Myers Olufemi A Omitaomu Blair RossAlexander SorokineThomas J Wilbanks ORNL Websites 1. Climate Extremes http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/ClimateExtremes 2. Climate Change War Game http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/WarGaming 3. Climate Change & National Security http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/NationalSecurity For related publications and presentations: Contact Auroop R Ganguly (gangulyar@ornl.gov) http://www.geocities.com/auroop_ganguly 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

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