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PROBLÉMY EUROZÓNY

PROBLÉMY EUROZÓNY. 8. ročník Mezinárodní Baťovy konference Univerzita Tomáše Bati ve Zlíně 19. dubna 2012. Jiří Schwarz.

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PROBLÉMY EUROZÓNY

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  1. PROBLÉMY EUROZÓNY 8. ročník Mezinárodní Baťovy konference Univerzita Tomáše Bati ve Zlíně 19. dubna 2012 Jiří Schwarz

  2. EU15: Belgium (BE), Greece (EL), Luxembourg (LU), Denmark (DK), Spain (ES), Netherlands (NL), Germany (DE), France (FR), Portugal (PT), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), UnitedKingdom (UK), Austria (AT), Finland (FI), Sweden (SE) • EA12: Belgium (BE), Spain (ES), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Luxembourg (LU), Netherlands (NL), Germany (DE), Finland (FI), France (FR), Austria (AT), Portugal (PT), Greece (EL) • EA17: Belgium (BE), Spain (ES), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Luxembourg (LU), Netherlands (NL), Germany (DE), Finland (FI), France (FR), Austria (AT), Portugal (PT), Greece (EL), Slovenia (SI), Cyprus (CY), Malta (MT), Slovakia (SK), Estonia (EE)

  3. I. Welfarestate

  4. Introductionofthe EURO Source: Eurostat Greecejoins EMU

  5. Source: Eurostat

  6. Source: Eurostat

  7. Source: Eurostat

  8. Source: OECD

  9. Source: Eurostat

  10. Source: Eurostat

  11. Source: Eurostat

  12. Source: Eurostat

  13. Source: Eurostat

  14. Source: Eurostat

  15. Source: Eurostat

  16. Source: Eurostat

  17. Source: OECD

  18. Source: Eurostat

  19. Source: Eurostat

  20. Final consumption expenditure is expenditure by resident institutional units - including households and enterprises whose main economic centre of interest is in that economic territory - on goods or services that are used for the direct satisfaction of individual needs or wants or the collective needs of members of the community. • A resident institutional unit is an institutional unit that is resident because it has a centre of economic interest in the economic territory of a country (or a grouping like the European Union (EU) or the euro area). • The sectors of an economy are composed of two main types of institutional units: • households and individuals who make up a household; • legal and social entities, such as corporations and quasi-corporations (e.g. branches of foreign direct investors), non-profit institutions, and the government of that economy.

  21. Source: Eurostat

  22. Source: Eurostat

  23. Private final consumption expenditure includes NPISH's (non-profit institutionsservinghouseholds) and households' final consumption expenditure. The household sector (ESA95, 2.75) consists of individuals or groups of individuals as consumers and possibly also as entrepreneurs producing market goods and non-financial and financial services (market producers) provided that, in the latter case, the corresponding activities are not those of separate entities treated as quasi-corporations. It also includes individuals or groups of individuals as producers of goods or non-financial services for exclusively own final use. Non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH, ESA95, 3.78 and 2.87) are separate legal entities serving households. They include for example trade unions, professional societies, political parties, churches, charities, sports clubs etc.

  24. Source: Eurostat

  25. Source: Eurostat

  26. Source: Eurostat

  27. II. Inabilityofgovernments to cutexpenses

  28. Source: Eurostat Maastricht criteria: Debtmax 60% of GDP

  29. Source: Eurostat

  30. Source: Eurostat

  31. Maastricht criteria: Deficit max 3% of GDP Source: Eurostat

  32. III. Monetarypolicyof ECB

  33. Source: Eurostat

  34. Source: ECB, Statistical Data Warehouse

  35. Source: ECB, Statistical Data Warehouse

  36. Source: OANDA

  37. M3 = Currency in circulation + Overnight deposits + Deposits with an agreed maturity up to 2 years + Deposits redeemable at a period of notice up to 3 months + Repurchase agreements + Money market fund (MMF) shares/units + Debt securities up to 2 years • Broad money (M3) comprises M2 and marketable instruments issued by the MFI sector. Certain money market instruments, in particular money market fund (MMF) shares/units and repurchase agreements are included in this aggregate. A high degree of liquidity and price certainty make these instruments close substitutes for deposits. As a result of their inclusion, M3 is less affected by substitution between various liquid asset categories than narrower definitions of money, and is therefore more stable.

  38. Growth rate of M3 in Spain and in the EMU Source: ÁngelMartín Oro: FREE MARKET IS NOT TO BE BLAMED FOR THE PRIVATE DEBT BUBBLE: THE CASE OF SPAIN

  39. Interest rates and credit to the housing sector in Spain (1993-2008) Credit to housing Interest rates Source: ÁngelMartín Oro: FREE MARKET IS NOT TO BE BLAMED FOR THE PRIVATE DEBT BUBBLE: THE CASE OF SPAIN

  40. Source: Eurostat

  41. Source: BIS Locationalbankingstatistics

  42. Source: BIS Locationalbankingstatistics

  43. Core: Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands Periphery: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain Source: BIS ConsolidatedBankStatistics

  44. Source: BIS Consolidated Statistics, Ultimate Risk Basis

  45. Source: ECB,Monetary, financial markets and balance of payments statistics

  46. Source: Lazard Insights: The European Debt Crisis, Quantitative Easing, Basel III: An Outlook for 2011

  47. 5Y Credit Default Swaps Source: Bloomberg

  48. 5Y Credit Default Swaps Source: Boone, Johnson: Europe on theBrink (2011)

  49. IV. The case ofIreland

  50. Source: Eurostat

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