REPUBLIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF SERBIA

1. REPUBLIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF SERBIA Belgrade Initiative on Climate Change as a mechanism for wider national and SEE climate change policy framework development Milan Dacic, Director Republic Hydrometerological Service of Serbia Danica Spasova, Director Adviser, Republic Hydrometerological Service of Serbia Workshop on “Facilitation of climate policy in CEE and Turkey for the post 2012 period” Budapest, Hungary 13-14 March 2008

2. General The Belgrade Initiative for enhancement of the Sub-regional (Western Balkan) SEE cooperation in the field of climate change launched by the host country Serbia in 2006, received full support of the UNECE Sixth Ministerial Conference “Environment for Europe”, which was held in Belgrade, Serbia, on October 10-12, 2007. Within the Initiative it is planned to develop a SEE Climate Change Framework Action Plan (SEE/CCFAP) in accordance with the principles and objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In particular, this relates to Research and Systematic Observation, Education, Training, Public Awareness and Capacity Building. The Belgrade Initiative also provides for the establishment of a Sub-regional Virtual Climate Change related Centre in Belgrade as a means of improving sub-regional cooperation, which would also facilitate and coordinate implementation of the SEE/CCFAP.

3. Objectives The Belgrade Initiative general objective is to support a sustainable economy development end environment in the interested SEE countries through attempts to reduce vulnerability to climate change and adaptation, effective implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol, and the establishment of the SEE network for climate change research. Sub-regional cooperation within this Initiative will contribute to the following: • Enhanced capacity for vulnerability and adaptation assessment; • Enhanced development, dissemination and employment of knowledge from practical adaptation activities and other climate change issues; • Enhanced integration of actions to adapt to climate change with those of sustainable development; • Improved information and advice to national negotiators participating in UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol negotiating processes; • Enhanced cooperation among SEE countries, relevant organization, civil society, and decision makers, and • Strengthening of partnership with relevant international organizations, conventions and protocols. This initiative is seen as a main driver for closer cooperation among interested SEE countries, international organizations and institutions in addressing sub-regional common priority problems in the field of climate change.

4. Rationale for launching Belgrade Initiative on Climate Change In the last two decades it became all the more evident that climate change have signficant impacts on economy and population in numerous regions including the region of Southeastern Europe (SEE). In addition to the registered changes in the thermal and precipitation regime, in many regions of the world changes in the intensity and frequency of the occurrence of climate extremes were registered.

5. Climate variability and extremes are already a majorobstacle to development in many regions including SEE Extreme Weather Conditions 2007 Exceptional Drought in July and August 2007 in Serbia accompanied by the longest registered wave of extremely high air temperature (~ 450C): Losses in agriculture cc. 0.5bn US$

6. Case and effect of floods, hail and strong wind Serbia2005, 2006

7. IPCC Forth Assessment Report: Impact Vulnerability and Adaptation (AR4,2007) • In accordance with IPCC AR4 “In Southern Europe, climate change is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought) in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism, and in general, crop productivity. It is also projected to increase health risks due to heat waves and the frequency of wildfires”, • The risks associated with a changing and more variable climate are increasing resulting in both economic losses and loss of human life.

8. Limitations and needs to deal with climate change • All SEE countries face problems with responding to the obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; • Developing countries in terms of the UNFCCC, including Serbia have a twofold problem. They are faced with growing damage caused by meteorological, hydrological and climate extremes and catastrophes, and on the other hand, they have to cope with poverty and necessity for development. • In addition, the SEE countries have limited access to knowledge, technology and financing, and have a great need of capacity building and development (systemic, institutional and individual), that has to be coupled with the requirements of the Stabilisation and Association process to the EU. • This is a key reason for launching the Belgrade Initiative on climate change that is expected to provide region-driven climate change framework action in SEE and establishment of an adequate research-to-policy interface.

9. Belgrade Initiative - Common SEE problems and priorities in addressing climate change Under Belgrade Initiative, the following common priorities have been identified: • (a) Improvement of collection, management, exchange, access to, and use of theobservational data and other relevant information on current and historical climateand its impacts to SEE; • (b) Enhancement of the capacity to supply and use the data, especially at regional andnational levels and exchange information on the impact of observed climatechange; • (c) Promotion of the understanding of the impacts of climate change and vulnerabilityto climate change; • (d) Promotion of the development/application of climate models, access to and use ofinformation and data on projected climate change for SEE; • (e) Promoting the use of information on the socio-economic aspects ofclimate change and improving the integration of socio-economic information intoimpact and vulnerability studies;

10. Belgrade Initiative-Common SEE problemes and priorities in addressing climate change-cont. • (f) Dissemination of information on practical adaptation actions and measures; • (g) Facilitating communication and cooperation among the SEE countries and relevantorganisations, business, civil society, decision makers, and other stakeholders; • (h) Promotion of climate change research, development and transfer of technologies,know-how and practices; • (i) Promotion of the understanding, development and dissemination of measures,methodologies and tools aimed at increasing economic resilience and reducingreliance on vulnerable economic sectors; • (j) Modernisation of meteorological, climatological and hydrological services in theSEE countries (e.g. Strengthening of the NMHSs in the Southeast Europe: Meteorological and Hydrological Information sharing – Status, Needs, Capacity Building, World Meteorological Organization); • (k) Development and implementation of sub-regional and bilateral programmes forresearch, education and training and other forms of capacity building under theexisting international framework and the development of regional partnershipsproposed by this Initiative (SEE/CCFAP).

11. Sub-regionalvirtualclimate changecentre in Belgrade which will facilitate and coordinate implementation of the SEE/CCFAP. The Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, as a government authority hosting the centre, contributes in-kind to the virtual centre with its available human resources, expertise in regional climate modeling (ClimEta,PRECIS) communication, computational and technical infrastructure resources, including offices with the necessary office equipment. Existing collaboration: Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea – Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia and University of Belgrade - SINTA Project Japan-Serbian Center for simulation Sciences – Earth Simulator – NEC super computers

12. KEY ISSUES IN POST-2012 PERIOD ADAPTATION – A Need for coordinated Sub-regional approach • There is need to support both facilitation and implementation of adaptation activity in terms of integrating across scales, from local to national andsub-regional. • This will require improvements inknowledge and expertise, institutional strength, good governance, transparency and stakeholders involvement, supportive government of interested countries, and financialresources for effective and efficient adaptation activities. • To facilitate this activities Belgrade Initiative propose to develop SEE/ CCFAP based on UNFCCC Nairobi Five-year programme of work on impacts, vulnerability andadaptation to climate change. • Adaptation to the unavoidable impacts of climate change needs to beaddressed as a priority within the negotiations on a post-2012 agreement, especially to enhance thesupport for adaptation action and capacity building in Non-Annex I (developing) countries that are most vulnerableto the impacts of climate change.

13. KEY ISSUES IN POST-2012 PERIOD cntd. Building on the flexible mechanisms As outlined in the “Investment and Financial Flows” paper produced by the UNFCCC Secretariat, the carbon market can be an important driver indelivering finance and incentives for technology innovation, development, deployment, and transfer. Thereforewe believe that theexpansion of the carbon market in the post-2012 period, including through enhanced existing flexiblemechanisms such as CDM, JI and emission trading, is a crucial element for any future climate regime. Particularly we would like to underline the importance of a continuing role of projects under the CDM beyond 2012 and the improvements (including regionally hosted CDM programs) in their environmental integrity, efficiency,contribution to technology transfer andsustainable development, and regional distribution.

14. Thank you for your attention milan.dacic@hidmet.sr.gov.yu danica.spasova@hidmet.sr.gov.yu