Business Process Simulation for Customer Satisfaction Enhancement

1. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN BUSINESS SIMULATION

2. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN benefits simulation is useful for training, persuasion, and analysis. Simulation is also useful for model validation—for finding and fixing errors in a model.

3. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model Example you seek to enhance customer satisfaction

4. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model Traditionally Mykonos management has thought about customer satisfaction in terms of the quality of the dishes prepared You intend to use your new responsibility to consider customer satisfaction more broadly. want to look at customer wait times and the impact of waits on satisfaction.

5. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model Customers have many waitings They wait for a table to be available. They wait for water, and bread. They wait for the staff to take their orders. They wait for their food, and they wait for their bills. You are concerned that all this waiting makes customers dissatisfied

6. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model You will create two models the customer dining process. how customers arrive, are seated, have their orders taken, and so on customer satisfaction. how food quality, wait times, and other factors contribute to customer satisfaction and how word of mouth and restaurant reviews affect the view of potential customers and, ultimately, a restaurant’s success.

7. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model Working with the models, you could examine the effect of different policies on wait times. And the two models could help communicate the results to the restaurant general manager, ultimately persuading him to change his policies and reduce the wait times.

8. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model Working with the models, you could examine the effect of different policies on wait times. And the two models could help communicate the results to the restaurant general manager, ultimately persuading him to change his policies and reduce the wait times.

9. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model After several sessions with the SME the models were developed The simulation shows that each customer party waits 46 minutes on average. This 46 minutes includes all the waits

10. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model The following figure shows an initial simulation result, a breakdown of the average times spent by customers, organized by activity

11. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

12. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model Wait times vary over the course of the week. Mondays and Tuesdays see far fewer customers than Fridays and Saturdays, and far shorter waits.

13. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

14. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model Wait times also vary over the course of a single evening. The wait times are shortest both early and late in the evening and longest in the middle of the evening, when the restaurant is busiest.

15. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

16. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model after validating the model, we will start the analysis What happens if the staffing is doubled? What happens on Friday nights if there are two hosts available to greet and seat customers instead of one, twice as many servers waiting tables, twice as many chefs cooking meals, and twice as many bartenders mixing drinks?

17. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

18. Why is the reduction in wait times so modest even when the staff is doubled? Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

19. The law of diminishing returns If we are constrained in one resource, the increase in another resource will bring diminishing returns Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

20. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

21. What happens if the staffing is doubled, and the number of tables is doubled and the kitchen capacity is doubled? Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

22. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

23. Most of the waits have disappeared. the obvious conclusion from this experiment: The restaurant is just not big enough for the demand on busy nights. But, doubling the capacity is not realistic !!! Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

24. a more realistic alternative is to change our policy What if we ask customers to make reservations on busy nights? Here are the results Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

25. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

26. People are in fact waiting less. But that reduced wait comes at a cost: the restaurant is serving fewer people and the bar is serving far fewer drinks to people who are waiting. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

27. Many other experiments are possible. What if the size of the waiting list is no more than three parties at a time? What if we staff a single additional server on Fridays and Saturdays? What if we cross-train the servers, so they could perform as hosts if the host was busy seating people? What if we only seated smaller parties—those of six people or fewer? Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN simulating a business process model

28. Preparing a model for simulation requires some additional work beyond what is required to create a static, non-simulated model. But more significantly than the extra work, preparing a process model to be simulated requires additional knowledge. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activities, resources, and jobs

29. To create a business process simulation you must understand activities, resources, and jobs and the way these three interact with each other. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activities, resources, and jobs

30. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activities, resources, and jobs

31. activity is a single step in a larger business process. A resource is a person who performs the activity Server is a role the person plays. A job is something that flows through the process, being worked on by resources and flowing from activity to activity Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activities, resources, and jobs

32. A job is created at a start event and flows over sequence flows and message flows from activity to activity until an end event is reached. When a job reaches an activity, one of two things can happen. Either a resource is available to work the job or no resource is available and the job must wait until a resource is available Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN Job cycle

33. While the resource is performing an activity he is not available to do anything else. When the resource is finished the activity, the job and the resource separate. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN Job cycle

34. The resource is available to do something else: the same activity for another job, another activity for the same job, or another activity in another process. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN Job cycle

35. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN Job cycle

36. The simulation engine collects individual statistics as the simulation progresses—statistics about activities, resources, and jobs. These statistics are aggregated into the simulation results Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN Collecting statistics

37. The engine collects statistics on each activity, each resource, and each job. Activity statistics include how many times each activity was performed, the average duration of each activity, the total cost of each activity. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN Collecting statistics

38. Resource statistics include the utilization of each resource, the total amount of work performed by each resource, Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN Resource statistics

39. Job statistics include the total cycle time of each job, the total touch time of each job, Job cycle time; for example, some jobs take two weeks to process in the endto-end simulation, but in the real world everything is done within four days Job touch time; for example, some jobs are only worked by resources for 20 minutes, but in the real world every job is worked for at least an hour Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN Job statistics

40. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN Collecting statistics

41. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN Collecting statistics

42. To be simulated, activities need additional attributes. Duration is one such attribute. When a job arrives at an activity, how long does the resource work on it? Each activity has a duration attribute that indicates how long jobs need to be worked. duration is a constant value, such as 10 minutes for every job that is worked by this activity. But duration can also vary, and it can vary in three different ways. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activity durationspage 303

43. Activity duration can vary in three different ways. First, duration can vary depending on the details of the job Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activity durations

44. The job that models the party of eight needs to be different from the job that models a party of two. For this simulation, jobs need their own model-custom attribute, party Size. A job representing a party of eight will have a party size value of 8, and a job representing a party of two will have a value of 2. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activity durations

45. Second, the duration of the activity can vary depending on the details of the resource. A skilled server will serve drinks quicker than a novice because she remembers who ordered which drink. The simulation needs to know that this server is quick, that one is average, and this other one is slow. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activity durations

46. For this model, resources need a model-custom attribute, skill Level, to keep track of skill. Values of skill level can then be 1 for an average skill, 0.8 for a quick server, and 1.2 for a slow one. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activity durations

47. Suppose we want the duration of Take Dinner Order to consider both the skill of the server and the size of the party. How do we combine those elements? We need to encode the duration as a formula, perhaps like the duration in the following slide Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activity durations

48. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activity durations

49. Third, the duration of the activity can vary randomly. Consider the activity Cook Dinner. The duration of Cook Dinner might vary from 20 minutes to 45 minutes, depending on what is ordered. When durations vary randomly, modelers often employ a uniform distribution. Each duration in a uniform distribution within the range is equally likely; 20 minutes is just as likely as 33 minutes and just as likely as 40 or 45. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activity durations

50. https://samehar.wordpress.com/2010/03/05/distributions/comment-page-1/https://samehar.wordpress.com/2010/03/05/distributions/comment-page-1/ When durations vary randomly, modelers often employ a uniform distribution. Each duration in a uniform distribution within the range is equally likely; 20 minutes is just as likely as 33 minutes and just as likely as 40 or 45. Dr. Rami Gharaibeh CHAPTER ELEVEN activity durations