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Achieving WHO Recommendations for HCV Elimination in the Western Pacific Region

This report highlights the prevalence, diagnosis rates, and treatment rates of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections in the Western Pacific region. It also discusses the feasibility of HCV elimination and the necessary steps to achieve World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. Key findings and recommendations are provided based on the data analysis.

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Achieving WHO Recommendations for HCV Elimination in the Western Pacific Region

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  1. Achieving WHO Recommendations for HCV Elimination in the Western Pacific Region L. Wei April 13, 2016

  2. In 2016, there are approximately 14 million viremic HCV infections in the Western Pacific region (0.7% prevalence) Prevalence (Viremic) 0.0%-0.6% 0.6%-0.8% 0.8%-1.3% 1.3%-2.9% 2.9%-12.0% Total Infected 250,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Source: Polaris Observatory (http://www.polarisobservatory.com/)

  3. In 2016, there are ~14M viremic infections, 3.6M already diagnosed, ~1M treated and 570K cured in the Western Pacific region Median Age: 50-54 25% • The viremic prevalence of HCV in the WPRO region and Taiwan is 0.7% with one quarter of infections already diagnosed. • In 2016, an estimated 1.06 M patients (or 1% of total infected) are already treated. Source: Polaris Observatory (http://www.polarisobservatory.com/)

  4. There is a wide range of prevalence, diagnosis rates and treatment rates across the Western Pacific region Bubble Diameter: HCV Prevalence 4% 2% 1% Source: Polaris Observatory (http://www.polarisobservatory.com/)

  5. Three countries account for 80% of viremic HCV infections, while China alone accounted for 80% of treated patients Viremic HCV Infections (2016) 80% of Total Number Treated & Treatment Rate 80% of Total (Treatment Rate) Source: Polaris Observatory (http://www.polarisobservatory.com/)

  6. Base 2014 Scenario – For comparison, the treatment paradigm in 2014 was extrapolated into the future • Continue to treat with Peg IFN based therapies • Treatment restricted to ≥F1 • Screening is continued each year to find new HCV cases Source: Polaris Observatory (http://www.polarisobservatory.com/)

  7. HCV infections will decline by 30%, while liver related deaths (LRD), HCC & decompensated cirrhosis (DC) will increase by 25%

  8. WHO Scenario – Increase screening, treatment and eligibility to achieve a 90% reduction in new infections • Switch to direct acting antivirals with higher SVR • Expand treatment to all patients (≥F0) • Expand screening to find infected individuals to treat and achieve 90% diagnosis rate • Increase treatment to achieve a 65% reduction in liver related deaths, 90% reduction in new infections • Starting in 2020, expand treatment up to 74 years of age

  9. HCV infections will decline 75% by 2030, while DC , HCC and LRD will decline 65% by 2030

  10. In 2016, there are an estimated 126 million HBsAg+ individuals in the Western Pacific region HBsAg+ (Prevalence) <1.0% Total Infected . 1 million 10 million The HBsAg+ prevalence in 2016 is estimated to be 6.7% 1.0%-2.5% 2.5%-5.0% 100 million 5.0%-10.0% Source: Polaris Observatory (www.polarisobservatory.com) >10%

  11. Two countries accounted for over 80% of all hepatitis B infections in the Western Pacific region HBsAg+ Individuals (2016) 80% of Total Source: Polaris Observatory (www.polarisobservatory.com)

  12. HBeAg: In 2016, it is estimated that 43% of HBsAg+ individuals in the Western Pacific region are HBeAg+ HBeAg+ Prevalence (% of HBsAg+) <2.5% 2.5%-5.0% 5.0%-10.0% 10.0%-20.0% Source: Polaris Observatory (www.polarisobservatory.com) >20%

  13. HDV: In 2016, An estimated 3% of HBsAg+ individuals are anti-HDV+ Anti-HDV+ Prevalence (% of HBsAg+) <2.5% 2.5%-5.0% 5.0%-10.0% 10.0%-20.0% Source: Polaris Observatory (www.polarisobservatory.com) >20%

  14. Conclusions: • There are an estimated 14 million viremic HCV and 126 million HBV infections in the region • Two countries (China and Viet Nam) in the region account for 80% of HBV infections • It is feasible to eliminate HCV infection in the Western Pacific region • Treatment must be increased six-fold by 2025 in order to achieve WHO recommendations • To reduce liver related deaths, eligibility has to increase to older patients – median age in this region is 50-54, and in 11 years half of the HCV infected population will be ineligible for treatment, unless age restrictions are expanded • Only moderate increases in screening are necessary to sustain treatment toward the WHO goal

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