The Changing Nature of Student Demographics in Ontario

1. The Changing Nature of Student Demographics in Ontario DIALOGUE May 15, 2008 R. Tiffin, Vice-President Students

2. Session Outline • World Picture • Canada/Ontario Perspective • Ontario Projections • Implications for Ontario Post-Secondary Institutions • What are the consequences of the shift from natural increase to immigration as the source of population growth?

3. Sources • Can Immigration compensate for below-replacement fertility?: The consequences of the unbalanced settlement of immigrants in Canadian cities 2001 – 2051 • Dr. Deborah Drake Matthews • Minister Responsible for Women’s Issues • Minister of Children and Youth Services • StatsCan • The Challenge of the Rural Poor, Interim Report of the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, December 2006

4. Population Trends • Past population declines were temporary • Low fertility rates combined with the lowest levels of mortality in human history • Economically developed countries will experience aging and population decline • Poorest countries will experience continued rapid population growth

5. Fertility Rate World Map

6. The Consequences • Unequal population distribution • Social and Economic adjustments • - pensions, healthcare, political imbalance • - Cottbus • Geopolitical implications

7. Examples • Europe’s share of the global population: • 1925 - 25% • 1975 – 17% • 2050 – 7% • Russia • 10 times the size of Yemen in 2000 • Equal size in 2050, Yemen growing and Russia aging • Last 3.5 billion in N.A., former Soviet Union, China, Southeast Asia and Latin America • Next 3.5 billion in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia

8. Causes and Responses • Increased life expectancy • family breakdown • pensions not children • increased social mobility • changing role of women in society • economic fears • Increase labour force participation of older workers and women • reform pension plans and eligibility • tax revisions to assist families • lower housing costs • enhanced childcare support

9. The U.S. Difference • TFR 2.0 • Teenage fertility rates double those of industrialized nations • Similar for white and non-white populations – hispanics a factor • Higher rates of marriage and earlier • Higher unplanned pregnancies, births and abortions • Greater access to more effective forms of birth control and socialized health care in Canada

10. U.S. College/University Trends • Baby boom echo peaks in 2008 – 3.34 m. high school grads • 2015+ – Hispanic and Asian student populations • caucasian students decline – from 1.9 to 1.59 mill in 2022 • growth primarily in families with no prior college history • Hispanic growth in Texas and southern U.S. • admissions challenge – plan for demographic changes

11. Canada - Total Fertility Rate, 1953 - 2006 Replacement Rate 2.1%

12. Total Fertility Rate By Province - 2003

13. Outlook for Canada • Under current immigration levels, only 10 of Canada’s 26 largest cities are projected to grow through to 2051, and 12 will be smaller in 2051 than in 2001. Cities with high levels of in-migration are projected to more than double in size.

14. Circle of Declining Rural Regions

15. Immigration Patterns • Canada attracts significantly more immigrants on a per capita basis than most other countries in the developed world. • 1960’s – southern Europe and UK • 1970’s/80’s – Asia, Central and S.A., Eastern Europe and Middle East • 1990’s – China and Hong Kong • 2004 – China and India

16. Impact of Immigration on Population Growth • 1940 – 49 – 8% • 1950 – 1989 – 20 – 30% • 1990 – 99 – 60% • Going forward – 100%

17. Settlement Patterns • Immigrants from all regions tend to be increasingly attracted to Toronto • Immigrants from Africa are more concentrated in Montreal • 63% of immigrants from South Asia settle in Toronto • Vancouver – Eastern Asia • Strong relationship between the size of an existing immigrant community and the settlement of new immigrants - Proximity of friends and family is the primary determinant • Urbanization • 1981 – 58% in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver • 2001 – 74% in these cities

18. Attracters of Recent Immigrants (1998 – 2001), as % of population

19. Government Response to Promote Balanced Distribution • Sweden, Australia, – transfers to local govt. for specific support services • Quebec – financial incentives to local govt. to attract immigrants • Manitoba – agreement with the federal govt. to nominate immigrants to fill specific job vacancies

20. In-migration • 40% moving from Montreal -> Toronto • 25% moving from Vancouver -> Toronto • 12% moving from Toronto -> Vancouver • Ontario and BC primary destinations for interprovincial migration • Mobility decreases as time in country increases • Least mobile – South/southeast Asia and S. Europe • 30% of those leaving Toronto move to a city within commuting distance – Hamilton, Oshawa, Kitchener

21. Projected Populations

22. Ontario Projections • Focus on Ontario university aged population – 18 to 21 years of age. • Pick up on themes that • growth is mostly the result of immigration • new Canadians settle differentially around the Province • All data is from Ontario Ministry of Finance • http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/projections/

23. Percentage Growth in the 18 – 21 Year Old Population

24. Percentage Growth in the 18 – 21 Year Old Population

25. Percentage Growth in the 18 – 21 Year Old Population

26. Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

27. Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

28. Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

29. Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

30. Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

31. Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

32. Difference in Regions Outside of the GTA

33. Implications: Where do Students from the GTA go to University?

34. Implications: Where do Students from Outside the GTA go to University?

35. Post-Secondary Issues • Enrolment Growth Capacity • Recruitment Strategies • OSAP – financial support • College – University Partnerships • Satellite campuses • Funding initiatives – e.g. First Generation • Capital plans – residences • Distance education • Student services • Male – female gender issues • FT – PT