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EWEC 2009 Global Strategies & Opportunities Session

EWEC 2009 Global Strategies & Opportunities Session. William Young Manager – Wind Insight new energy finance. Marseille, 18 th March 2009. 2020 Peak Scenario. Global Futures: CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion in global futures base and 2020 peak scenarios (Gtonnes).

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EWEC 2009 Global Strategies & Opportunities Session

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  1. EWEC 2009Global Strategies & Opportunities Session William Young Manager – Wind Insight new energy finance Marseille, 18th March 2009

  2. 2020 Peak Scenario Global Futures: CO2 emissions from fuel combustionin global futures base and 2020 peak scenarios (Gtonnes) Recession reduces 2030 CO2 emissions by only 1 Gtonne 45 Base scenario with recession Base scenario without recession IEA Ref. 40 35 Reduced investment in clean energy has far greater impact on emissions in the longer term IEA 550 ppm 30 IEA 450 ppm 25 2020 Peak Scenario: trend in CO2 emissions is reversed by 2019; falls toward levels needed to avert climate change by 2030 20 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2009, IMF’s World Economic Outlook (January 2009), IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008. Notes: The data refers specifically to CO2 from fuel combustion and not greenhouse gases. [v9.02]

  3. Global Futures Base Scenario renewable energy electricity generation World renewable energy electricity generation 2006-2030: TWh 2030 shares of renewable energy in total electricity generation Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2009. Note: renewable energy includes large hydro. Source: New Energy Finance, IEA, EIA. Note: large hydro is defined to be greater than 50 MW. [v9.02]

  4. 5% Growth 59% Growth $155bn $148bn 58% Growth 68% Growth $93bn $60bn $35bn 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Global new investment in clean energy, 2004 – 2008 5xincrease from low level between 2004 and 2007 10%of global energy infrastructure spend But the top-line hides what is happening in the past few quarters Note: Adjusts for reinvested equity. Total value includes estimates for undisclosed deals. Source: New Energy Finance [v9.02]

  5. 590 2020 Peak Scenario 548 Global Futures Base Scenario 502 461 373 408 348 264 269 214 155 148 93 59 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Global Futures capital requirement to 2030: Base and 2020 Peak Scenario Clean energy capital requirement per year: $bn Average clean energy capital requirement share of GDP 2006-2030 Global Futures 2020 0.44% Peak Scenario Global Futures Base 0.33% Scenario World Energy Outlook 0.25% 2008 Reference Scenario Stern Review 1.00% Notes: excludes large hydro; WEO 2008 Reference Scenario share was computed adopting WEO 2008 assumed World GDP growth rates. * Stern Review figures include forestry, agriculture and other sectors in addition to those relating to energy. Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2009, New Energy Finance Desktop, IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008, The Stern Review [v9.02]

  6. Increasing momentum towards clean energy investments Compared to 1 year ago Impact of current turmoil Expectations for 2012 Source: New Energy Finance

  7. The world is changing From To Supply-Chain constrained Finance constrained Turbine shortage Turbine availability Silicon shortage Silicon surplus Biofuels boom/bust;food price hysteria Back to basics: sugar/2nd gen Limited focus on quality Focus on quality and cost Proliferation of start-upsand new ventures Consolidation

  8. Digital Energy – unbundled networks, data everywhere Generation Multiple Interconnected Networks Transmission Distribution/Supply GRID Interconnected Smart grid(s) LOCALINTERCONNECT/ TRANSFORMATION GRIDINTERCONNECT SMART METER (HUB)

  9. 530 399 355 185 186 112 89 53 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 VC/PE Investment in Digital Energy technologies ($m) Source: New Energy Finance Notes: Excludes buy-outs. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. [v9.02]

  10. Telecoms/Mobile Operators, Utilities, Producers Consumer Electronics Semiconductors& Hardware Software NetworkEquipment Value creation opportunities Today’s players Potential Players • Energy data and price transfer infrastructureResellers/aggregators • Branded virtual utilities • Dynamic optimisation of supply and demand • Smart metering and smart devices/appliances • Energy gateways • Wireless connectivity/networking • Appliance control and embedded intelligence • Advanced resource forecasting • Asset, element and fault management • Smart billing • Energy management and optimisation • Implementation of network controls • High voltage and DC powerlines (HVDS/HDS) • Efficient transformers

  11. Briefing (newsletter) Industry Intelligence (data & news) Insight (research & analysis) Carbon price forecasting Carbon project analytics Consulting & advisory Executive workshops New Energy Finance Summit THANKS! William YoungManager – Wind Insight +44 20 7092 8856 www.newenergyfinance.com www.newcarbonfinance.com william.young@newenergyfinance.com Renewable Energy, BiofuelsCarbon Markets Energy Efficiency & Technology Carbon Capture & Sequestration Nuclear, Water

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