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Swimming Upstream: Persons with Disabilities in the Contemporary Labor Market

Swimming Upstream: Persons with Disabilities in the Contemporary Labor Market. Edward Yelin and Laura Trupin University of California, San Francisco. Background-I. Return to work (RTW) among disability beneficiaries occurs in about 1% of cases

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Swimming Upstream: Persons with Disabilities in the Contemporary Labor Market

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  1. Swimming Upstream:Persons with Disabilities in the Contemporary Labor Market Edward Yelin and Laura Trupin University of California, San Francisco

  2. Background-I • Return to work (RTW) among disability beneficiaries occurs in about 1% of cases • RTW among all persons with disability, including non-beneficiaries, occurs in about 2% of cases

  3. Background-II • Among persons not working, those with disabilities about 1/5 as likely to enter employment even after adjustment for differences in health and demographics • Persons with disabilities who are working 2.5 times as likely to stop work even after adjustment

  4. RTW Last Step in Longer Process-I • For children with disabilities … • Transition from school to work takes longer • For young adults with disabilities … • Transition from temporary or non-career to career jobs takes longer • For adults in prime working years … • Less likely to obtain “secure” forms of work • Displaced from career jobs at earlier ages

  5. RTW Last Step in Longer Process-II • Older adults with disabilities take longer to obtain employment after job displacement • “Permanent” RTW … • More likely to occur in contingent or temporary positions • Ratio of pre to post displacement pay is lower

  6. Ticket to Workin Context of Work Life • Rehab literature provides ample evidence that rates of RTW can be increased • Increasing RTW among SSDI benefits by 500, however, would mean 95% still won’t be working • Stanching the flow of persons with impairments who leave work before applying for benefits must be part of overall strategy to improve employment

  7. 20/20 Hindsight on 1980’s • Trends from1980 forward might have led to projection of decline in disability benefit applications … • Decrease in average physical demands of jobs • Increase in flexibility of hours, ability to work at home • Flattening of workplace hierarchies

  8. Offsetting Workplace Trends • Loss of security resulting in lower rates of jobs w. pensions, health insurance • Growth in contingent forms of employment, including contract work, temp work, and consulting • Increased cognitive job demands at time of increasing prevalence cognitive, mental impairments • Increased rates of job displacement

  9. UCSF DRI Projects:Projecting from Current Labor Market Trends • Yr 1: Impact of contemporary working conditions on employment rates • Persons with disabilities with less secure forms of employment but, once employed, same working conditions

  10. UCSF DRI Projects:Projecting from Current Labor Market Trends • Yr 2: Stability of employment across years • Persons with disabilities with much higher rates of job displacement, after adjustment for health and demographic characteristics and characteristics of baseline employment • But: they also have forms of employment with a higher probability of job loss

  11. UCSF DRI Projects:Projecting from Current Labor Market Trends • Yr 3: Impact of Change in Distribution of Occupations and Industries, 1970-2001 • Persons with disabilities not adversely affected by changing distribution of occupations and industries • But … adversely affected by increased proportion of women working (crowding effect)

  12. UCSF DRI Projects:Projecting from Current Labor Market Trends • Yr 3: Impact of Change in Distribution of Occupations and Industries, 1970-2001 • Positive impact of proportion of disabled in workforce • Assists in gaining access to occupations and industries • Appears to be positive externality from growth in community of persons with disabilities at work

  13. Net Result of Competing Trends • Overall: worsening of employment rate for persons with disabilities • Net effect of positive impact of growth in proportion of labor force with disabilities and … • Negative effects of nature of contemporary labor market, particularly contingent forms of employment, and crowding phenomenon

  14. Summary and Conclusions • Persons with disabilities have been swimming upstream against powerful currents • Increased rates of displacement • Poor fit between cognitive demands of jobs and prevalent impairments • Increase in women’s labor force participation • No labor market trends would allow optimism for near future (and those trends from 1980 that allowed for optimism were insufficiently strong)

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