Presentation Transcript

1. The rising digital intensity of manufacturing

   Changing the rules of the game Irene J. Petrick Irene J. Petrick, Ph.D. ipetrick@ist.psu.edu SIM – DC City Club May 13, 2014
2. Abstract In the past several decades, manufacturers have seen disruptions coming from competing production technologies and from low cost global competitors.  Today and into the future, the disruptions are coming from sources many don't even see coming.  Specifically, the future manufacturing landscape will be enabled by developments in information technology.  Access to high performance computing at a cost competitive rate will level the playing field for advanced modeling, analytics and simulation.  When combined with developments in 3d printing/additive manufacturing, one-off highly customized production will compete with mass production.  Current manufacturers will need to learn how these 3d printing/additive manufacturing technologies can coexist alongside their more traditional processes.  As these tools become simpler to use, Internet-savvy hobbyists and do-it-yourselfers will effectively be able to challenge very established firms.  Cloud supported services will be a viable replacement for extensive enterprise resource planning and customer relationship management systems and will provide the real time visibility into the supply chain and production environment that customers will demand.  And the final IT based enabler that will democratize manufacturing?  Social-media based funding models such as Kickstarter.  In the coming decade the installed base that has been a barrier to entry for new firms will become a barrier to change for many established manufacturers.  
3. Assertions 3D printing/additive manufacturing is ON THE HORIZON and will achieve end-part quality in multiple materials in the coming years The roles and rules of traditional supply chains are becoming obsolete Competition will come from unexpected participants Economies of scale will go from a barrier to entry to a barrier to change Economies of One will coexist and compete with Economies of Scale Digitally intensive tools will change the face of manufacturing
4. IT driven trends in the production & operational environment The rise of the “Any Man” Design & production as experimentation
5. “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” -- Arthur C. Clark Where is the magic? Design Production Post Production Delivery/distribution
6. Simplified ecosystem Well understood roles & responsibilities Reducing complexity is key to competitive advantage Design as a “finished” input to production Post Production Design Production Distribution
7. Changing nature of design & designers Scanners, Smartphone Apps Reverse Engineering& Modeling Physical Digital Modeling External and Internal Features Design 3D Printer Design Software ISVs, Computing Hardware Converters & Translators Unique Firmware Printer Manufacturers Hobbyists & Prosumers Animators Engineers Architects Manufacturers Design Firms Digital Actionable Standards, File Formats, Instruction Sets,Design Rules Internet DesignFiles & Kits App Designers Imagination Digital Customization, Solid Models, Surface Models
8. Changing nature of production & post production Polymers, Powders, Binders, Gas Materials Producers, Auxiliary Suppliers Experimentation & RedesignCollaborative Innovation Physical Feature Testing Part Characterization, Material Handling, Recycling Inventory Sites Materials Producers, Printer Makers, Distributors Post Production Post Production 3D Printer Design Net/NearNet ShapeParts Unique Hardware Printer Manufacturers Fixturing & Material Removal Surface Finishing Feature Enhancements Heat Treatment Process Parameter Framework Toolpath, Process Plan, Machine Parameters, Support, Orientation, Material Parameters
9. Changing nature of distribution Printer Hubs Printer as the Ultimate FAX Machine 3D Printer 3D Printer 3D Printer Local Manufacturing or Traditional Shipping Internet File Post Production 3D Printer Design Direct Distribution Local Manufacturers UPS, USPS, FedEx
10. The dynamics of Economies of One … Fewer clear boundaries in the design-build-deliver paradigm Design and production as experimentation Modeling & designing-in complexity yields competitive advantage Proximity matters From long-term planning to real-time planning IT becomes a critical skillset
11. The return of the artisan entrepreneur Local Artisan & Craftsman Production Centralized Production & Delivery Mechanization Urbanization & Capital Consolidation Manufacturing Returns to the Garage Modern Transportation & Information Systems Internet-based Business Processes & Design with Virtual Manufacturing Production Centralized Production with Distributed Low Cost Supply Sourcing & Distributed Delivery Mass Customization & “My Way” Consumer/Customer Demand Competitive Advantage through Economies of One Competitive Advantage through Economies of Scale & Scope
12. myFactory Cubify.com TheMicro.com – Kickstarter Funded QUESTION: Who is a manufacturer? Who is a designer?
13. Cloud-based business models Distributed Network of 3D Manufacturers Virtual Factories Intermediary Makerspaces, Job shops 3D printer hubs Prosumers Engineers Architects
14. For existing manufacturers … Great gifts Serious challenges We don’t know how to design for this technology Cloud-based business models enable artisan entrepreneurs to compete Extensive installed base is a barrier to change Digital intensity increases the demand for skilled IT professionals Customization is feasible (Economies of One) Production of replacement parts is simplified Manufacturing is sexy again Entrepreneurs drive change in unanticipated ways
15. The future is here…
16. Dr. Irene J. Petrickis a Penn State University professor and managing director of the TrendScape Innovation Group. She is an internationally recognized expert in strategic roadmapping and has been actively engaged in advanced manufacturing issues. Her research interests include technology forecasting, collaborative innovation and business ecosystem development. She is actively engaged with companies in their innovation and technology strategy activities, including work with twelve Fortune 100 companies, the U.S. military, and a wide variety of small to medium sized enterprises. She has over 25 years of experience in technology planning, management and product development in both the academic and industrial settings. She has been named a Boeing Welliver Fellow, a CSC Faculty Intern in India, and has spent three summers full time with Intel Corporation focused on innovation strategies (2010-2012). Irene is author or co-author on more than 150 publications and presentations. (http://strategic-technology-roadmapping.com/)