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Simulation of the Late Maunder Minimum with global and regional climate models

Simulation of the Late Maunder Minimum with global and regional climate models. Hans von Storch, Beate Müller GKSS Research Center. MUSCAD workshop, 20-21 October 203, Uppsala. Simulation with ECHO-G (ECHAM4/HOPE-G) 500 years (Columbus-run), and - 1000 years (Erik run) forced with

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Simulation of the Late Maunder Minimum with global and regional climate models

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  1. Simulation of the Late Maunder Minimum with global and regional climate models Hans von Storch, Beate Müller GKSS Research Center MUSCAD workshop, 20-21 October 203, Uppsala

  2. Simulation with ECHO-G (ECHAM4/HOPE-G) • 500 years (Columbus-run), and - 1000 years (Erik run) • forced with • - variable solar output- volcanic aerosol load- GHG concentrations

  3. Ice conditions off Iceland (Koch, 1945) deMenocal et al. (2000) Simulated global 1675-1710 temperature anomaly

  4. Information provided by Fidel González-Rouco andSimon Tett ECHO-G HadCM3 differences relative to the 1550-1800 average;25-year running averages.

  5. Late Maunder Minimum Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710 Analysis of Columbus run, only.

  6. Baltic Sea ice winter index after Koslowski (1998)grey: raw index, red: 5 year mean, blue:20 year mean

  7. Mean winter temperatures in Tallinas reconstructed by Tarand & Nordli, 2001

  8. Temperature conditions in Switzerland according to Pfister‘s classification (1999). 1675-1710vs. 1550-1800 The Late Maunder Minimum (LMM) is the coldest phase of the so-called ‘Little Ice Age’ with marked climatic variability over wide parts of Europe. Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al.

  9. Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al. Late Maunder Minimum Model-based reconstuction 1675-1710vs. 1550-1800

  10. LMM – reference period, winter Erik Columbus Eduardo Zorita, pers. comm.

  11. LMM11671-1684NAO- and Cooling LMM2 1685-1708 NAO+ andWarming Irene Fischer-Bruns, pers. comm.

  12. REMO Model Area ECHO-G gridding gridding: Spatial: 0.5° x 0.5° Temporal: 6 h

  13. Main land use types in Germany from 7th century area [%] Regionalized sea ice data

  14. Differences January reconstructed data - REMO reconstructed data - ECHO

  15. Differences July reconstructed data - REMO reconstructed data - ECHO

  16. Seasonal temperature anomalies in areas with skill of reconstruction > 0.5 REMO und Luterbacher Winter Frühling Sommer Herbst

  17. Temperaturanomalie des LMM für Zentral-England Winter

  18. Winterliche Mitteltemperatur und Anomalie des LMMfür den Tallinner Hafen Mittel

  19. Conclusions • Two multi-century simulations concluded. Natural forcing plus GHGs. Work done by a European consortium. • Model simulations are consistent. • Tools for dynamical downscaling for the Baltic catchment area developed. • Models simulates significant winter cooling during LMM; similar event in HadCM3. • Similarity to observed features, but variations much stronger than empirical reconstructions by Mann and others. • LMM winter cooling is global event. Cooling in Europe is just a manifestation, and not mainly related to anomalous easterlies in Northern Europe.

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