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Simulation of the „Late Maunder Minimum“ ? Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research,

Institut für Küstenforschung. I f K. Simulation of the „Late Maunder Minimum“ ? Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht, Germany København, 17. Oktober 2001. Joint work of

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Simulation of the „Late Maunder Minimum“ ? Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research,

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  1. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Simulation of the „Late Maunder Minimum“ ? Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht, Germany København, 17. Oktober 2001 Joint work of Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, Ulrich Cubasch, Stefanie Legutke, Jürg Luterbacher, Ulrich Schlese, Hans von Storch, Eduardo Zorita

  2. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Forced Simulation 1450-2000 simulation Changing solar forcing and time variable volcanic load; greenhouse gases Spin-up 1450-1550

  3. Late Maunder Minimum Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710

  4. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Temperature conditions in Switzerland according to Pfister‘s classification. From Luterbacher, 2001

  5. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Climate model used Atmosphere: ECHAM4 horizontal resolution T30 ~ 300 km at mid latitudes Ocean: HOPE-G horizontal resolution T42 ~ 200 km at mid latitudes increased resolution in the tropics Model provided as community climate by Model & Data Group at MPI for Meteorologyand run at German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ)and computing facilities at FZ Jülich

  6. effective solar output methane (ppb) CO2 (ppm)

  7. control forced

  8. validation Late Maunder Minimum Model-based reconstuction Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al. 1675-1710vs. 1550-1800

  9. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Model as a constructive tool H H L hPa Air pressure difference, 1675-1710 vs. 1550-1800

  10. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Model as a constructive tool Global 1675-1710 temperature anomaly

  11. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Coral-estimated SST for a location off Madagaskar Zinke, pers. communication validation

  12. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Zinke, pers. communication

  13. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K ·Galapagos (E-Pacific, 1oS, 90oW, Dunbar et al., 1994): 367 years of coral 18O records from 1587-1953, with annual resolution. The intervals 1660-80, 1710-1800 and 1870-95 were found warmer than “normal”, whereas the intervals 1600-1660, 1680-1700 (LMM) and 1800-25 cooler than on average. 18O increases of about 0.1-0.15‰ heavier during LMM than between 1660-70 and 1705-50 is indicative for a cooling of 0.5-0.75K. ·New Caledonia (SW-Pacific, 22oS, 166oE, Quinn et al., 1998): 335 years of coral 18O records from 1657-1952, with seasonal resolution. The records describe a brief interval of modest cooling in the late 17th century, with an annual mean SST about 0.2-0.3K cooler between 1680-1740 than between 1660-80 and 1740-50 ·Great Barrier Reef, Abraham Reef (SW-Pacific, 22oS, 153oE, Druffel and Griffin, 1993): 323 years of coral 18Orecords from 1635-1957, with bi-annual resolution. More positive 18O values (ca. 0.1‰) during the LMM, are consistent with lower SST’s of about 0.5K Zinke, pers. communication

  14. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K warm Hubertus Fischer, 1998 cold

  15. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K

  16. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K CLIMATE SINCE A.D. 1500, Edited by Raymond S. Bradley and Philip D. Jones, Routledge, London, 1992 (679pp) D'Arrigo and Jacoby. Reconstructed mean annual temperatures for northern North America

  17. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Model as a constructive tool Simulated differences of ice coverage, in percent, during the LMM event 1675-1710 and the long term mean 1550-1800.

  18. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K

  19. 1675-1715 LMM was a significant winter climate anomalywell documented in Europecoincident with solar anomalies • Similar winter anomalies simulated in 1550-2000 AOGCM,forced transiently with anomalous solar output and volcanic aerosol load • In the model, the LMM appears as global phenomenonwith maxium effects on the Northern Hemispherein particular in the Labrador Sea • Anomaly results of dynamical interplay of atmosphere and ocean • Anomaly reminiscent of Great Salt Anomaly Conclusions

  20. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K

  21. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Dalton? LMM?

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