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Quantitative risk evaluation and mapping Task F

Quantitative risk evaluation and mapping Task F. Ragnar Sigbjörnsson. Contents. Description of Task F Deliverables The working group Definition of risk measures The Pilot Study Areas The Icelandic Study Case The Disruption Index. DESCRIPTION OF TASK F .

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Quantitative risk evaluation and mapping Task F

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  1. Quantitative risk evaluation and mappingTask F Ragnar Sigbjörnsson

  2. Contents • Description of Task F • Deliverables • The working group • Definition of risk measures • The Pilot Study Areas • The Icelandic Study Case • The Disruption Index

  3. DESCRIPTION OF TASK F Tast F consists of five Actions: • F1– Creation of a Working Group dedicated to the evaluation of the seismic risk (EERC) • F2 – Evaluation of significance of risk for the pilot region (LNEC) • F3– Damage ranking seismic risk inside regions (buildings – Census 2011 – and schools - Portugal) (LNEC) • F4 –Comparison of risk measures among different study areas (EERC) • F5 – Definition of more comprehensive measures of impact (physical, economic and social) and definition of risk criteria (IST)

  4. DESCRIPTION OF TASK F The main outcome of Task F are the following three deliverables: • F1.1 – Definition of general guidelines for evaluation of the seismic risk (EERC); • F2.1 – Report on Damage assessment in each of the test areas 1, 2, 3, 4 (INGV, IST, LNEC, CSIC and EERC); • F5.1 – Report on more comprehensive measures of impact (physical, economic and social) and definition of risk criteria in each of the test areas 1, 2, 3, 4 (INGV, IST, LNEC, CSIC and EERC).

  5. WORKING GROUP: WG 12 Ragnar Sigbjörnsson, Maria Luisa Sousa, Alexandra Carvalho, Francisco Mota de Sa, Monica AmaralFerreira, Carlos Sousa Oliveira, Sonia Raposo, FabrizioMeroni, GaetanoZonno, SalvatoreD’Amico, RajeshRupakhety, Solveig Thorvaldsdottir, Francesca Bianco

  6. WORKING GROUP: WG 12 EERC (Iceland) • Ragnar Sigbjörnsson • Rajesh Rupakhety • SólveigThorvaldsdottir IST (Portugal) • Carlos Sousa Oliveira • Monica Amaral Ferreira • Francisco Mota de Sá INGV (Italy) • Gaetano Zonno • FabrizioMeroni • Salvatore D’Amico • Francesca Bianco NLEC (Portugal) • Alexandra Carvalho • Maria Luisa Sousa • Sonia Raposo

  7. Definition of different measures of risk Basic formulation The expected loss, E(L), in a given time interval can be expressed as follows within the framework of continuous stochastic variables: Here, L is the loss, H represents the probabilistic hazard described by the probability density function, fH(h), h being the state variable.

  8. The lumping procedure If the expected losses are analyzed in terms of equivalent lost building area, then the expected loss value conditioned by a seismic hazard level, E(L|h) is obtained by the following expression: where, is the number of buildings in the study region; is the average floor area of the buildings belonging to a typological class with vulnerability v, in the study region; is the damage factor and is the damage probability matrix considered as the percentages of buildings, belonging to the typological class with vulnerability v, which are in a damage state d, after being subject to a seismic action with severity h; is the probability of the buildings belonging to a typological class with vulnerability V = v, and it is assumed

  9. The Pilot Study Areas • Italy (Mt. Etna Case) • Portugal (Lisbon and Algarve) • Spain • Iceland (The Town of Hveragerdi)

  10. The Icelandic Pilot Study - The Disruption Index

  11. HVERAGERÐI The Icelandic Pilot Study Area

  12. PUBLICATIONS • Ferreira, M.A. (2012). Riscosísmicoemsistemasurbanos. Ph.D Thesis. Instituto Superior Técnico, UniversidadeTécnica de Lisboa. 295 pp (in portuguese). • Ferreira, M.A.; Mota de Sá, F.; Oliveira, C.S. (2013). Disruption Index, DI: an approach for assessing seismic risk in urban systems. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, (submitted for publication) • Mota de Sá, F.; Oliveira, C.S.; Ferreira, M.A. (2013). QuakeIST: Instructions for running the software, IST, Lisboa. 73pp • Oliveira, C.S.; Ferreira, M.A. and Mota de Sá, F. (2012). The concept of a disruption index: application to the overall impact of the July 9, 1998 Faial earth-quake (Azores islands). Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. 10(1): 7-25. • Sousa, M. L.; Ferreira, M. A.; Mota de Sá, F.; Oliveira, C. S.; Raposo, S.; Sigbjörnsson, R.; Rupakhety, R.; Zonno, G.; Meroni, F.; Bianco, F.; D’Amico, S. (2012). Quantitative seismic risk evaluation and mapping: cases of schools and residential facilities in Lisbon and Algarve. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Lisbon

  13. Thank You

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