Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2014 January 16, 2014

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers

3. First Reading Response • IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • Reading responses of roughly one page (single-spaced). The responses do not need to be elaborate, but they should also not simply summarize the reading. They should be used by you to refine your questions and to improve your insight into climate change. • They should be submitted via CTools by next Tuesday and we will use them to guide discussion in class on Thursday. Assignment posted with some questions to guide responses.

4. An excursion • Rood Blog “Just Temperature”

5. November 2013: Global Temperature

6. Today • A (very) Little History • Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem • What is (and is not) “science?” • Reduction

7. Some history (see Weart, AIP) • The first calculations of the ability of water vapor and carbon dioxide to warm the Earth’s surface are often attributed to Fourier. (I will call this the greenhouse effect.) • Significant improvements to the quantification of the warming due to greenhouse gases is attributed to Tyndall. • Arrhenius in the late 1800s made estimates of the impact of doubled carbon dioxide.

8. Starting point: Scientific foundation (1) • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on fundamental principles of the conservation of energy, momentum, and mass. • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations.

9. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty • The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface has increased due to the addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface.

10. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty • The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface will continue to rise because of the continued addition into the atmosphere of gases that hold heat close to the surface. • Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt. • Sea level will rise. • The weather will change.

11. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas The Economist on 400 ppm Data and more information

12. The yearly cycle of CO2

13. IPCC 2001 Uncertainty of individual models Uncertainty due to models using a set of emission scenarios Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Observation uncertainty

14. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

15. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ 1951-1980 base period See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

16. IPCC 2013: Observed Temperature

17. IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years

18. Quick Summary: IPCC(2013)

19. IPCC projections for the next 100 years. Note: From one IPCC assessment to the next, there is no fundamental change in sign and range.

20. Starting to think about uncertainty • We introduced uncertainty above • Uncertainty due to emissions, land-use change • Uncertainty due to models • Uncertainty due to observations • There is an implicit statement on uncertainty by the consistent message from the IPCC Assessments • An uncertainty that we have not talked about yet • Natural variability

21. That’s a glimpse into climate change • We’ve seen this carbon dioxide curve, with carbon dioxide increasing. • I’ve told you that carbon dioxide holds heat close to the surface. • I showed curves and graphs of global averaged surface temperature, past, present, and future. • Showed sea level and snow melt.

22. So what do you think? • What are the strengths of what has been presented? • What are the weaknesses of what has been presented? • Anything intriguing or especially interesting about what has been presented?

23. Temperature Water Precipitation Evaporation Humidity Air Composition Air quality Aerosols Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate What parameters/events do we care about?

24. Today • A Little History • Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem • What is (and is not) “science?” • Reduction

25. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate

26. Scientific investigation of climate change • What is scientific investigation? • Scientific method • How do we get started?

27. What is science, the scientific method? • Elements of the scientific method • Observations of some phenomenon • Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of suppositions, followed by hypotheses • In principle, hypotheses are testable: • Experiments: cause and effect • Prediction instead of experiments? • Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis. • Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? • Development of tests, experiments that challenge the hypotheses and predictions. • Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is constructed.

28. What is science, the scientific method? • Science is a process of investigation • The results of scientific investigation are the generation of • Knowledge within a prescribed levels of constraints • Uncertainty: How sure are we about that knowledge? • Science does not generate a systematic exposition of facts • Facts are, perhaps knowledge, whose uncertainty is so low, that we feel certain. • Theories develop out of tested hypotheses. • Theory is NOT conjecture • Theory is subject to change • There is constant challenge and testing • Science requires validation • Requires that hypotheses and theories are testable • Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests.

29. What is science, the scientific method? • Science is a process of investigation • Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests. • Do you feel that scientific investigation of the climate is “transparent?” • Do you feel that independent investigators affirm basic conclusions?

30. Science, Scientific Method • Scientists DO impart their personalities and beliefs onto their results • But the fact that it is independently testable, ultimately, challenges this potential prejudice.

31. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS THEORY PREDICTION

32. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS PROCESSES MODELING

33. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS THEORY EXPERIMENT

34. OBSERVATIONS THEORY EXPERIMENT Scientific Investigation Problem Solving Unification Integration (perhaps not unique) Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary

35. What is science, the scientific method? • We always have these attributes in the scientific method • Observations of some phenomenon • Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? • How do we affect “control?” • What is “control?” • We are seeking cause and effect. • Validation, can I predict the behavior? • Can I describe this well enough for someone else to repeat it?

36. Let’s think about reduction for a while

37. World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 * Source: International Energy Agency 2005 megaton oil equivalent

38. Climate Change Relationships • We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas

39. Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION

40. Societal Success and Energy Societal Success Low High High High This is what we know. Consumption Low Low High Low

41. Energy and Economic Success What countries are missing from this figure? What has changed since 2005? The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005)

42. This lecture and the next • In this lecture: • We talked a little about the recent temperature observations • We looked at a set of observations and some projections for 2100 • We introduced language of uncertainty • We discussed the scientific method • We started to talk about: Economic success, Consumption, Energy, Population • In the next lecture: • We will “reduce” Economic success, Consumption, Energy, Population to think about paths for addressing climate change • Start the science-based deconstruction of climate science