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FROST-2014 activities (FROST: Forecast and Reseach – Olympic Sochi Testbed)

Dmitry Kiktev Hydrometcentre of Russia / Roshydromet. FROST-2014 activities (FROST: Forecast and Reseach – Olympic Sochi Testbed). 11-13 April 2012 WWRP/JSC5, Geneva, Switzerland. Two clusters of «Sochi-2014» Olympic venues. Snow sports competitions. Ice sports competitions.

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FROST-2014 activities (FROST: Forecast and Reseach – Olympic Sochi Testbed)

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  1. Dmitry Kiktev Hydrometcentre of Russia / Roshydromet FROST-2014 activities(FROST: Forecast and Reseach – Olympic Sochi Testbed) 11-13 April 2012 WWRP/JSC5, Geneva, Switzerland

  2. Two clusters of «Sochi-2014» Olympic venues Snow sports competitions Ice sports competitions

  3. Goals of FROST-2014 project: • To improve and exploit:– high-resolution deterministic mesoscale forecasts of meteorological conditions in winter complex terrain environment, including downscaled modeling;– regional mesoscale EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) forecast products in winter complex terrain environment;– nowcast systems of high impact weather phenomena (snow levels, wind, visibility, precipitation type and intensity) in complex terrain.• To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region;• To deliver deterministic and probabilistic forecasts in real time to Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers and assess benefits of forecast improvement.• To assess benefits of forecast improvement (verification and societal impacts) As the project evolves these goals will be detailed. Meteorological support of winter Olympics in mountainous terrain implies both research and practical forecast demonstration components. A blended RDP/FDP under the auspices of the Nowcasting and Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research Working Groups of the WWRP is to be an appropriate organizational form for the project. The outputs of the project will be used to enhance the mesoscale and nowcasting services for the Olympics.

  4. Project components: • Obsevations • Deterministic NWP • Ensemble NWP • Data assimilation • Nowcasting and Observations • Information Technologies • Training and understanding • Verification and Impact Assessments

  5. Observational network in the region of the Games None of practically realizable near-surface atmospheric monitoring networks can be representative enough given the complexity of the region and high Olympic demands. In situ observations are mostly concentrated along the coast. Vast sea area from one side and nearby high mountains (up to 3 km and more) on another side of KrasnayaPolyana are data sparse areas. Nevertheless, today situation is substantially better than 1-2 years ago, and enhancement of the network will continue. + 48 near-surface automatic stations have been installed to enhance the observational network in the region. + Data flow from new Doppler radar, wind and temperature/humidity profilers, and micro-rain radars will be available by the next winter; + More frequent sounding data at the nearest aerological stations will be available

  6. Current network of AMSs in the region of Sochi and its foreseen enhancement Designations: Red markers – Roshydromet’s AMSs; White – AMSs of sport venue owners; Yellow – AMSs already installed by Megafon company Green – AMSs to be installed by Megafon company

  7. Current Instrumentul Setup (AMSs and Sensors Installed)

  8. Supplementary network of AMS on the towers of mobile communication is being developed in the region in cooperation with Megafon company Data processor Precipitation gauge Some AMS are accompanied by web-cameras. Wind sensor Temperature and humidity sensors

  9. Current Instrumentul Setup (AMSs and Sensors Installed) - continuation

  10. Doppler radar in Sochi: state of affairs • Vaisala Doppler radar WRM200 was bought 1 year ago, but it is being installed on Akhun mountain in Sochi now (considerable time has spent on endorsements). • Data flow from the radar is expected in September-October 2012. Thin lines designate 500 m topography level; Bold brown lines – 1000 m topography level. Mountain cluster objects Location: 43о32’52,6״ N, 39о51׳05,0״E, Altitude – 646 m. From the point of view of coverage this position is the best in the region of Sochi. There are no obstacles in the western and southern sectors. In eastern and north-eastern directions horizon shading will not exceed 1-2 degrees in vertical. Akhun mountain Adler airport

  11. Profilers Two profilers will be installed on mobile platform:- Wind - AP1000 Radar Wind Profiler (Scintec Corporation, U.S.A.);- Temperature/Humidity – HATPRO (RPG GmBh, Germany)Data flow – by winter 2012/2013.It will be supplemented by:+ Scintec SFAS and MTП-5 temperature profilers+ 2 METEK Micro Rain vertically pointing Radars (MRR-2)

  12. Nowcasting Many issues should be tackled within this project component, e.g.: - Winter nowcasting of multi-weather elements (wind speed and wind gust, visibility, precipitation intensity and time); - Improvement of blending procedures for NWP and extrapolated observations for winter; - Radar retrieval of precipitation type and intensity; - Assessment and account for observational uncertainty (WGNR mandate). The project gives a chance to develop mesoscale NWP to fill the gap in 4-6 hour and, probably, up to 12 hour range. Nowcasting potential of participating NWP models (COSMO, HARMONIE, AROME, GEM, GRAPES, WRF) should be assessed for direct and post-processed (e.g. Kalman filter, 1-D model, MOS) model forecasts. Besides the meso-scale models, the specialized nowcasting systems are expected to be used in the project – ABOM, CARDS, INTW, STEPS, INCA, WSDDM, GRAPES.

  13. Numerical weather prediction • Complexity of Sochi region stimulates application of high-resolution modeling. • Key areas to be addressed: data assimilation; physics, validation and numerical challenges at high resolution; predictability and uncertainty. • High-resolution data assimilation is a necessary prerequisite for meso-scale forecasting. The remote sounding is the main source of meso-scale structures in the initial data for such a modeling. Potential input for assimilation: Doppler radars; Wind and temperature/humidity profilers; Satellite radiances (AMSU-A, AMSU-B, AVHRR, IASI, SSMIS); Satellite winds (AMV, ASCAT). • Convective-scale multi-model ensemble forecasting might be a new experience of Sochi-2014

  14. NWP component: Potential contributors and expected results

  15. COSMO contributions to the «Sochi -2014» project • First version of COSMO-LEPS (7-km grid spacing) centered around Sochi for a dynamical downscaling of the ECMWF EPS is already in place.The idea is to run the COSMO-LEPS-Sochi for a test period during winter 2012/2013 and in production mode during winter 2013/2014. • Deterministic, high resolution COSMO model (2.2 km grid spacing; forecast range up to 24 hours; rapid update cycle) nested into the 7-km COSMO-RU model in Moscow. The model runs should include data assimilation using all available data, including the Doppler radar in Sochi. • Extensive work on development of convection-permitting model version is on the way.

  16. FORECAST SYSTEM COSMO-RU GME (DWD): 368 * 642 * 60 grid nodes Grid step : 20km (from 2011) Time step : 110sec Forecast range: 7 days COSMO-RU07: 700 *620 * 40 grid nodes Grid step : 7 km Time step : 40 sec Forecast range: 78hr Runtime: 19 min on 1024 cores of Altix-4700. At 00and 12UTC COSMO-RU02: 420*470 * 50 grid nodes Grid step: 2.2 km Time step: 15sec Forecast range: 24hours

  17. COSMO-RU02 Horizontal resolution 2.2 km Intercomparison and first impressions of 7km and 2km COSMO versions are mixed (both have their weak and strong points).

  18. Today’s actual weather and forecasts for Sochi region – 12/04/2012http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru – MAP D-Phase-like interface is being developed

  19. “- Forecasters do not always like probabilities (at any scale!) - End-users “hate” probabilities.” Andrea Montani, Michael Ttsyrulnikov (1st FROST-2014 meeting) Today’s TIGGE-LAM / ARPA-SIM forecasts for Sochi region – 12/04/2012

  20. GEM (Environment Canada):Simulation of heavy precipitation case in Sochi 31.1-1.2.2012 2.5km-resolution 1km-resolution 2.5km-resolution 1km-resolution

  21. Verification and impact assessment • Data storage with Internet-access is already in place; • More advanced data quality control is needed; • Home-made tools, VERSUS, MET …; • As for SNOW-V10, it is of interest to quantify the added value of forecast refinement between: • Global model;- Regional model without and with its own data assimilation; - High-resolution model with and without data assimilation; - Post-processed model output (Kalman filter, MOS, 1D-model etc.);- Nowcasting (based on latest observations and blended with NWP). • Distributed verification activity • (Roshydromet–FMI (JWG on Verification Research)) ? • Impact assessment - some first steps are tried • (Target group – Olympic forecasters)

  22. Forecaster role: Best nowcasts include a forecaster with conceptual models of local process evolution and access to automated tools. Training course and pre-trial field practice in 2011/2012 • Training will be held on regular basis; • Participants are be involved into provision of meteorological services for test events.

  23. COSMO; Environment Canada; FMI and Helsinki University; HIRLAM; NOAA; ARPA-SIM / TIGGE-LAM; Vaisala (via local Russian representative); ZAMG; WMO Secretariat and CAS/WWRP WGs on Nowcasting, Mesoscale Forecasting, Verification Research - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Potential participants: CMA, NCAR, Basel University, UKMO Second FROST-2014 meeting (Moscow,16-18/4/2012)Who plan to attend ? :

  24. Thank you! http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru

  25. Project Management • Science Steering Committee • WG1: Observations and nowcasting (including Verification) • WG2: NWP, ensembles and assimilation (including Verification) • WG3: IT (including graphical tools, formats, archiving and telecommunication) • WG4: Products, training, end user assessment and social impacts

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