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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 April 2011. For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/. Outline. ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status
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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 April 2011 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/
Outline • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast
ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • La Niña conditions continued across the equatorial Pacific. • The magnitude of negative sea surface temperature anomalies continued to decrease across the Pacific Ocean. • A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2011. During the last 4-weeks (13 Mar – 9 Apr 2011), SSTs were generally 0.5°C or more below average between 160°E and 120°W, while above-average temperatures have emerged in small areas of the eastern Pacific. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status The MJO signal began to weaken during the previous week, with no further eastward propagation. The MJO signal is expected to remain incoherent during the upcoming week. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/
200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation C A Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.
Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.
Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly
Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly
Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly
Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly
Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly Brazil Argentina
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly Brazil Argentina
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly Brazil Argentina
Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly
Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly
Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information