Trevor Murdock Climate Scientist Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium University of Victoria

1. Past and Future Climate Change for Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area DCRD Climate Change Adaptation 10115 January 2010Videoconference: University of Victoria - Nelson Trevor Murdock Climate Scientist Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium University of Victoria

2. Outline • About PCIC • Relevant reports • Recent questions / topics • Climate change & variability - Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area D

3. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortiumwww.PacificClimate.org • Launched 2005 • Applications of research to management, planning, and decision-making • Partner with research labs, impacts researchers and regional stakeholders • Sister organization to Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions www.pics.uvic.ca

4. PCIC Vision and Scope * A vision for a consortium emerged … to stimulate the collaboration of government, academia and industry to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events, climate variability and the threat of global change.   The consortium for climate impacts will bridge the gap between climate research and climate applications, and will make practical information available to government, industry, and the public. * - Organizational Workshop (May, 2005)

5. Starting the Dialogue • Climate science for layperson • Recommendations on adaptation process • Impacts and potential adaptations by sector: • Water supply • Ground transportation • Community infrastructure & safety • Public health • Hydro-electric power • Forestry • Tourism and recreation • Agriculture

6. Preliminary Analysis of Climate Variability and Change in the Canadian Columbia River Basin: Focus on Water Resources • Climate concepts, terms, and measurement • Climate change in the Basin – analysis of past trends and future projections • Climate impacts on water resources

7. Analytical SummaryPast Trends and Future Projections for the Canadian Columbia Basin: focus on Kimberley and Elkford • Regional climatology and trends • Regional hydroclimatology • Future projections • GCMs, RCMs, high resolution • Annual Temperature & Precipitation • Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation • Annual precipitation as snow • Growing degree days • Tree species suitability

8. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in the Canadian Columbia River Basin: A Literature Review • Water resources and hydrology • Energy, flood control, and transboundary • Biodiversity and forests • Fisheries • Agriculture • Infrastructure & transportation • Tourism and recreation • Human health • Recommendations for adaptation planning

9. Outline • About PCIC • Relevant reports • Recent questions / topics • Climate change & variability - Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area D

10. Initial priorities: Oct 2009 • Water • Socio-economic • Transportation • Infrastructure and Utilities • Agriculture • Interface fire • Explore a hydrological model that can be applied to small water systems to understand impact and adaptation possibilities

11. Recent questions / topics 1) What is the current state of the art science in the impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?   2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that should be investigated and what kind of time periods would that cover?  3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream flow from that of climate change?  Do we monitor the water levels of the source? (In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed, not glacier fed.) 4) Glacier impacts 5) Extremes and local weather station information

12. 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?   • Increases of 500 – 100 Growing Degree Days at most locations

13. 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?   • VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model – University of Washington and PCIC (new results in progress) • Results at Duncan – increasing spring runoff, decreasing summer

14. 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?   • Less change than most Columbia Basin watersheds but still increased streamflow in spring, decreased in summer

15. 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?   • WaSim (Water Simulation model) at Donald: high resolution hydrological model – in development at PCIC

16. 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?   • Online subscription • Includes basic climate change scenarios • Ted van der Gulik, BC Ministry of Ag and Landshttp://bc.waterbalance.ca/

17. 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?   • Frequency of occurrence of high risk to water supply depends on climate model and emissions scenario – Denise Neilsen, Ag Canada • Individual policies assist with meeting future demand but only combined policies meet full target – Tina Neal, CAS & Stewart Cohen, Env Canada

18. 2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that should be investigated and what kind of time periods would that cover?  • Could be determined by vulnerability assessment • Some suggestions from PCIC hydrologists • Low flows • High flows • Summer evapotranspiration / soil moisture • Seasonal / monthly vs. annual • Need to look at wet season compared with dry season summer runoff compared to snowpack

19. 3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream flow from that of climate change?  Do we monitor the water levels of the source? In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed. • Five mile creek: El Nino earlier and weaker spring peaks than La Nina

20. Normals Climate Change Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: (centuries) Climate Variability Normals Short term : (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO) Climate Oscillations Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO) Annual and Decadal Variabilityare superimposed onClimate Change Trends

21. 4) Glacier impacts • 0-degree isotherm crude approximation of glaciated areas – almost vanishes by 2050s • See http://wc2n.unbc.ca/ for more glacier analysis

22. 5) Extremes and local weather station information Analysis of past and future extremes is just beginning. Rainfall • prec90p 90th percentile of rain day amounts (mm/day) • 644R5d Greatest 5-day total rainfall • 646SDII Simple Daily Intensity (rain per rain day) • 641CDD Max no. consecutive dry days • 691R90T % of total rainfall from events > long-term P90 • 692R90N No. of events > long-term 90th percentile of rain days Temperature • tmax90p Tmax 90th percentile • tmin10p Tmin 10th percentile • 125Fd Number of frost days (Tmin < 0 deg C) • 144HWDI Heat Wave Duration

23. 5) Extremes and local weather station information Kootenay national park

24. Outline • About PCIC • Relevant reports • Recent questions / topics • Climate change & variability - Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area D

25. Normals Climate Change Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: (centuries) Climate Variability Normals Short term : (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO) Climate Oscillations Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO) Annual and Decadal Variabilityare superimposed onClimate Change Trends

26. Baseline Climatology a) b) c) d)

27. El Nino / La Nina a) b) c) d)

28. Pacific Decadal Oscillation a) b) c) d)

29. Golden Revelstoke Kaslo Cranbrook Creston Trend Analysis 5 stations- regional average- computed linear trend and 95% confidence intervals- Mann Kendall covariance analysis between stations: mean annual temperature 0.86 total annual precipitation 0.46 total annual rain 0.40 snow 0.55 Elevations: Cranbrook 918 m Golden 785 m Creston 597 m Kaslo 591 m Revelstoke 443 m

30. 1913-2002 Temperature Record Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)

31. 1913-2002 Temperature Trends and confidence intervals Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)

32. 50-yr Temperature Trends Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)

33. 30-yr Temperature Trends Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)

34. 1913-2002 Precipitation Record Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)

35. What are Global Climate Models? • GCMs compute global weather patterns several times per day projected over the next century • GCMs are the • “…only credible tools currently available for simulating the physical processes that determine global climate...”[IPCC] Source: David Viner, UK Climate Impacts LINK Project

36. Adaptation required even with mitigation Warming large compared to historical variability

37. GCM  RCM

38. GCM  RCM

39. Climate change  impacts: planning & management e.g. spruce suitability Columbia Basin 1961-1990 2020s

40. Climate change  impacts: planning & management e.g. spruce suitability Columbia Basin 1961-1990 2080s

41. Initial priorities: Oct 2009 • Water • Socio-economic • Transportation • Infrastructure and Utilities • Agriculture • Interface fire • Explore a hydrological model that can be applied to small water systems to understand impact and adaptation possibilities

42. Recent questions 1) What is the current state of the art science in the impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?   2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that should be investigated and what kind of time periods would that cover?  3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream flow from that of climate change?  Do we monitor the water levels of the source? (In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed, not glacier fed.) 4) Glacier impacts 5) Extremes and local weather station information

43. Thank youFor more informationwww.PacificClimate.org