THORPEX Pacific Predictability Experiment: User and Social Science Research Perspectives

1. A THORPEX Pacific Predictability Experiment:User and Social Science Research Perspectives Rebecca E. Morss National Center for Atmospheric Research (Thanks to: Jeff Lazo, Brian Mills, Mary Altalo, and others)

2. THORPEX Societal and Economic Application (SEA) Research Ideas • Identify high-impact weather forecasts • Assess the impact of improved forecasts • Develop advanced forecast verification measures • Estimate net benefits of improved forecast systems • Develop new user-specific weather products • Facilitate transfer of THORPEX advances to forecast centres throughout the world • Demonstration projects

3. Identify High-Impact Weather Forecasts • “High-impact weather forecasts are defined by their effect on society, the economy, and the natural environment” • (Improved) weather forecasts that can most benefit society • Defined societally, not meteorologically (although “forecasts of high-impact weather” are likely a subset) • More specific definition needed because it underlies SEA and other THORPEX research

4. Identify High-Impact Weather Forecasts • Regionally, inventory and synthesize user needs for improved forecasts

5. Examples of Users (From: THORPEX International Science Plan)

6. Identify High-Impact Weather Forecasts • Regionally, inventory and synthesize user needs for improved forecasts • e.g., in western U.S.: water, irrigation, and power • Compare “busts” and “good” forecasts from modeler, forecaster, and user perspectives • Examine indicators of weather-related risk/ opportunity and economic impacts for different users/sectors

7. Assess the Impact of Improved Forecasts • Estimate value of current/improved forecasts via: • Modeling of user decisions (idealized implementation: cost/loss models) • Experimental economics (idealized → realistic) • Non-market valuation • Analysis of market data • Non-economic methodologies • Need baseline knowledge on socioeconomic impact of current forecast systems

8. Develop Advanced Forecast Verification Measures • User-relevant verification: Tie verification measures to societal impacts measures • For specific users or user sectors • General, integrated measures • Verification of probabilistic forecasts • Verification of spatial/temporal characteristics of forecasted events

9. THORPEX Societal and Economic Application (SEA) Themes • Identify high-impact weather forecasts • Assess the impact of improved forecasts • Develop advanced forecast verification measures • Estimate net benefits of improved forecast systems • Develop new user-specific weather products • Facilitate transfer of THORPEX advances to forecast centres throughout the world

10. Benefits Costs Inputs (e.g., obs, DA) Use Forecasts Estimate Net Benefits = Costs  Benefits

11. Benefits Costs Assess / Value Impacts Analyze Costs Inputs (e.g., obs, DA) Use Forecasts Other THORPEX Research Verify Frame / Synthesize  Evaluate proposed improvements Estimate Net Benefits = Costs  Benefits

12. Estimate Net Benefits of Improved Forecast Systems • Basic economic/policy framework exists • Combine results from • THORPEX OSSEs and field campaigns, using appropriate verification measures • THORPEX cost analyses • Estimates of impacts of improved forecasts • Need baseline knowledge on benefits and costs of current systems • Results help justify (motivate) programs and set priorities

13. Develop New Weather Products • Collaborate with public and private sector users to develop new weather products: • About user-relevant variables (including risk and uncertainty), at user-relevant space and time scales • At longer lead times Example: irrigation, water, and power in Northwest • Through research & development in: ensemble prediction, ensemble post-processing, decision support tools, user needs, current processes • Interest in studying and improving communication of forecast uncertainty, using quantitative and qualitative methods

14. Facilitate Transfer to Forecast Centres Throughout the World • Build local/regional THORPEX-related capacity among international forecast providers and users, emphasizing developing countries • By building partnerships through WMO and existing centers, based on regional and local needs • Possible foci for Pacific Experiment • Indigenous populations in Arctic • GLOBE program: Community (primarily K-12) data collection and capacity building

15. Demonstration Projects • Conduct SEA demonstration projects with each major THORPEX field campaign • Multiple possible foci – develop in conjunction with overall project priorities • International Polar Year (IPY), 2007-8 • Transportation and energy production in Alaska • Indigenous populations • 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver

16. Issues / Questions • Develop SEA component in conjunction with other components • Areas to emphasize or deemphasize for Pacific Predictability Experiment? • Need to coordinate between SEA and other program components, operational forecasting • Who? Funding? How to draw in new expertise and leverage off existing work? • Working group / conference call? If you are interested, let me know (morss@ucar.edu)