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Pakistan and Regional Security in Asia

Pakistan and Regional Security in Asia. Dr. Arndt Michael International Forum of Public Universities (IFPU) Summer School "Managing an International Crisis" July 5-10 at CERIUM, the University of Montreal’s Centre for International Relations. Structure of Presentation.

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Pakistan and Regional Security in Asia

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  1. Pakistan and Regional Security in Asia Dr. Arndt Michael International Forum of Public Universities (IFPU) Summer School "Managing an International Crisis" July 5-10 at CERIUM, the University of Montreal’s Centre for International Relations Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  2. Structure of Presentation • A (very) brief history of Pakistan • Pakistan today • Determinants of Pakistan’s Security Conception • Pakistan‘s Foreign Policy in the region • Afghanistan • China • India • The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation • Summary and „policy recommendations“ Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  3. Objective of Presentation • Identify key foreign and security policy strategies • Assess Pakistan‘s security interests in the greater regional context (Afghanistan, India and China) • Possibly predict Pakistani policy behaviour in an international crisis Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  4. Pakistan Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  5. Pakistan – Major ethnic groups Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  6. 1) Very Brief History of Pakistan • August 14, 1947 - Pakistan founded (West & East Wing) • 1947 - 1st India-Pakistan War • 1965 - 2nd India-Pakistan War • 1971 - 3rd India-Pakistan War • 1971 – East Pakistan becomes Bangladesh • Constituted appr. 50% of Pakistani territory • May 1998: Pakistan becomes nuclear power (a process already begun in 1972) • 1999: Kargil war between India and Pakistan • 1999: General PervezMusharraf takes over as „Chief Executive“ (4th Military Coup), later president • 2001: Pakistan becomes major US-ally in fight against terror • Since February 2008: • President: Asif Ali Zardari • Prime Minister: Shaukat Aziz • Foreign Minister: Makhdoom Shah MahmoodQureshi Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  7. 1) Very Brief History of Pakistan cont. Since 1947, Pakistan has followed a cycle of • military intervention • military government • military misrule • return to civilian government • civilian floundering • and: renewed intervention • Summary: • Bureaucrats / unelected politicians: 11 years in power • Army: 34 years in power (4 military coups) • Elected representatives: 15 years in power Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  8. 2) Pakistan today Domestic Conflict Lines: • Inter-confessional and supra-regional violence (Sunni - Shiites extremists, other religious minorities) • Latent situation of civil war in Karachi (economic center, Sindh –Mohajir - Pashtun) • Baluchistan uprisings and revolts (deep sea port of Gwadar; gas and oil) • Terrorism and civil war in the North West Frontier Province, bordering Afghanistan Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  9. 2) Pakistan today • The crisis state • Political crisis • Economic crisis • Social crisis • Educational crisis • The global conflict state • Terrorism • Conflict region: Iran-Afghanistan-Kashmir (USA: „AfPak“) • High concentration of different (violence) actors (state and non-state) with repercussions for regional security • State actors: Pakistan; USA • Domestic actors: Police; paramilitary groups • External actors: Military; intelligence services • „Private“ actors: Jihadists; Taliban, local mafia Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  10. 2) Pakistan todaycont. • HDI: The United Nations Human Development Report for 2007-08 estimates that almost 33 percent of Pakistanis live in poverty. Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  11. 2) Pakistan today cont. • Oligarchic system (establishment) • Major Pakistani political and social forces: The triad • Military (plus Inter Services Intelligence, ISI) • Bureaucracy (Civil Service of Pakistan, CSS) • Feudal landlords and the „families“ (22) • Also important: US ambassador as “unofficial” player Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  12. 2) Pakistan today cont. The Role of the Military • Centre of dysfunctionality: dominance of army (supported by various US administrations) • Approximately 650,000 personnel are on active duty in the military - the world's 6th largest armed force as of 2010 • Combined with the 302,000 strong paramilitary forces and 528,000 in reserve, the Pakistani military has a total size of over 1,000,000 personnel • No conscription Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  13. 2) Pakistan todaycont. • General Headquarters (GHQ) located in Rawalpindi • Veto position / monopoly on: • Nuclear and rocket program; arms procurement; Kashmir question • Possible changes because of new government • Most powerful corporative actor of the country • Chief of the Army Staff (COAS): responsible for • nuclear programme, procurement, military strategy, operative planning • comprehensive competence in security policy guidelines • Director-General of ISI: reports to prime minister, but assigned to COAS Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  14. 2) Pakistan today cont. The Role of the ISI • The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (also Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI) is the largest intelligence service in Pakistan • It is one of the three main branches of Pakistan's intelligence agencies • Involvement in major conflicts • Conflicting statements as to its role and engagement Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  15. 2) Pakistan today cont. The Role of the ISI • (2010) A new report by the London School of Economics (LSE) claimed to provide the most concrete evidence yet that the ISI is providing funding, training and sanctuary to the Taliban insurgency on a scale much larger than previously thought. • The report's author Matt Waldman spoke to nine Taliban field commanders in Afghanistan and concluded that Pakistan's relationship with the insurgents ran far deeper than previously realised. • Some of those interviewed suggested that the organization even attended meetings of the Taliban's supreme council, the Quetta Shura. • http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/south_asia/10302946.stm Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  16. 3)DeterminantsofPakistan‘s Security Conception Major Phases of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy • 1947-52: Exploration and Foundations of Foreign Policy • 1953-62: Alignment with West • SEATO • CENTO • 1962-71: Transition • Creation of Bangladesh 1971 • 1972-79: Bilateralism and Non-Alignment • 1980-1990: Afghanistan and Partnership with USA • 1990-2001: Post Cold War-Era and Nuclear Power • 2001: Counter Terrorism Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  17. 3)DeterminantsofPakistan‘s Security Conception • Pakistan: special case of inseparable connection between internal and external security • International actors in the region: • Presence of international troops (ISAF, NATO) in Afghanistan • Air strikes by means of predator drones of CIA and US Air force • Frontiers: • Contentious Durand line with Afghanistan (1863, divides ethnic and linguistic people) • Kashmir region Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  18. 3) DeterminantsofPakistan‘s Security Conception Four major determinants of Pakistan‘s security conception: 1) The India-Pakistan Relationship • Secular India vs. Pakistan, home of Muslim • Five wars between India and Pakistan • Pakistan: „non-state actors“: Jihadists, trained by Pakistan ISI and army (privatization of war) and Extremist Islamists (Sunni) – today Pakistani Taliban • IndPak as one field of operation for local terror groups • Fear of Indian/Russian encirclement Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  19. 3) DeterminantsofPakistan‘s Security Conception 2) The Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship: • 1862 Durand Line – separated British India from Afghanistan in the West • Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) as inner frontier to the East • Both went through Pashtun territory • Afghanistan providing „strategic depth“ Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  20. 3) DeterminantsofPakistan‘s Security Conception • „Actors“: • Kashmiri Jihadis • Pakistani Jihadis • Afghani Mujadehin (Taliban) • Fluent borders and separations • „AfPakInd“ – since the end of Taliban regime in Kabul, center of operation has shifted to the FATA • The „rulers“ in Kabul and Peshawar (capital of NWFP) directly impact on Pakistani inner and outer security Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  21. 3) Determinantsof Pakistani Security Conception 3) Status claim: Pakistan as a regional power (self-perception; role theory: ego – alter) • Particular defence and alliance policy: China as counter weight to contain India • Current projects with Chinese support reflect this: • Deep sea harbour Gwadar in the South • Karakorum Highway in the North • Current alliance with USA (past experiences) Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  22. 3) Determinantsof Pakistani Security Conception 4) Particular ethical, moral and religious orientation of Pakistani security policy • Anti-imperialism of independence movement • Non-alignment movement (NAM) • Ideological function: Islamic Umma (Muslim World), translated into socially accepted foreign policy, in turn helpful in security political „privatization“ of Kashmir and Afghanistan policy • Economic function: close relations with Saudi Arabia (<-> cheap oil import, but indirect domestic influence in terms of madrassas etc.) Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  23. 4) Pakistan Foreign Policy in the region • Afghanistan (Afpak) • China • India and Kashmir • Regional Cooperation Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  24. 4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan Durand Line: North West FrontierProvince (NWFP) • Region took a new shape when the Durand Line was established in 1893 by the British. • Border line has separated the Pashtun and Baluch tribes. • Today, fighting is taking place there between militants and Afghan/Pakistani military, backed by NATO forces. Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  25. Pakistan: Major ethnic groups Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  26. 4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan • Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of using its intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in aiding the Taliban militants. • Pakistan has denied the allegations, but has said it does not have full control of the actions of the ISI. • Relations became even more strained as the United States supports an Afghan invasion of tribal regions. • US President Obama: announced „Afpak“ Strategy, 2009 • Territorial bordersofAfpak: • Iran, threecentral Asian states, China, Indiaand Indian Ocean Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  27. 4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan • Pakistani strategists argument: Afghanistan could provide "strategic depth“ in the event of a war with neighboring India. • Should the Indian Army cross into Pakistan, the Pakistan Army could temporarily locate supplies in Afghanistan and prepare for a counter-offensive. • At various times, Pakistan backed the mujahedeen against the Soviets, mujahedeen against each other and the Taliban against the Northern Alliance. Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  28. 4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan • On June 15, 2008, the Afghan government issued a statement threatening to send its army across the Durand Line in pursuit of rebels stationed along the mountainous border inside Pakistan. • The statement caused considerable damage to bilateral relations and was rebuked by Pakistani officials as inappropriate. • The United States, however, has stated it does support a temporary Afghan invasion of tribal areas in Pakistan if the Pakistani army is incapable of doing so. Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  29. 4.2) Pakistan - China • Chinese president Hu Jintao: the relationship between Pakistan and China is "higher than the mountains and deeper than the oceans". • Favorable relations with China have been a major pillar of Pakistan's foreign policy. • China strongly supported Pakistan's opposition to the Soviet Union’s involvement in Afghanistan and is perceived by Pakistan as a regional counterweight to India. Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  30. 4.2) Pakistan - China • China and Pakistan also share very close military relations, with China supplying a range of modern armaments to the Pakistani defence forces. • China supports Pakistan's stance on Kashmir while Pakistan supports China on the issues of Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan. • Strategically, China is used to balance against India. Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  31. 4.2) Pakistan - China • Free trade agreement China-Pakistan • Lately, military cooperation has deepened with joint projects, producing armaments ranging from fighter jets to guided missile frigates. • Substantial investment from China in Pakistani infrastructural expansion, including the Pakistani deep sea port in Gwadar. • Pakistan serves as China's main bridge to Muslim countries. • Pakistan had earlier played a leading role in bridging the communication gap between China and the West, through Henry Kissinger's secret visit before the 1972 Nixon visit to China. Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  32. 4.3) Pakistan and India • India as defining element in Pakistan‘s foreign policy • Psychological cold war between the countries • Trade takes place via Dubai • Pakistan alleges Indian support for the insurgency in Baluchistan (resource rich) and Indian funding for a 135-mile road connecting the Nimroz province (Afghanistan) with the Iranian port of Chabahar Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  33. 4.3) Pakistan and India • Recent crises between India and Pakistan with international repercussions: • Nuclearization in 1998 (70-90 warheads) • Kargil War in 1999 • Terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir, e.g. attack on State Assembly, 1 October, 2001 • Attacks on Indian parliament, 13 December, 2001 • Mumbai attacks, 26 November, 2008 (173 dead) Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  34. 4.3) Pakistan and India • The Kashmir conflict: • Line of Control: separates Azad Kashmir and Jammu & Kashmir • Wars in 1947 and 1965, limited conflict in 1999 • Large number of military personnel stationed at LoC Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  35. World Press Photo 2009:Riots in Srinagar, Kashmir • Official text: A man cradles a stone during a pro-separatist demonstration in Srinagar, India-administered Kashmir, on 23 January. Kashmir, which is over 60 percent Muslim, has been disputed by India and Pakistan since the partition of the subcontinent in 1947 and is currently split between them. Since 1989, there has been a growing Muslim separatist movement against Indian control. Pro-separatist rallies in India-administered Kashmir are common. • People in the News: 1st prize singles, Michele Borzoni, Italy, TerraProject Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  36. 4.3) Pakistan andIndia • Attempts at institutionalization of dialogue • Composite Dialogue • Confidence Building Measures (CBMs): high-level talks, easing visa restrictions, restarting cricket matches • Fear of Indian and Russian encirclement • US-Indian nuclear deal (United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Non-proliferation Enhancement Act) October 2008: • Regarded as part of a strategic alliance against Pakistan Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  37. 4.3) Pakistan and India • Current developments - BBC News, Thursday, June 2010 India and Pakistan pledge better relations • Senior Indian and Pakistani diplomats who have met in Islamabad have pledged to continue efforts to improve mutual relations and restore confidence. • India's foreign secretary NirupamaRao met her Pakistani counterpart SalmanBashir to decide the agenda for ministerial talks next month. • Peace talks were put on hold after the Mumbai attacks of 2008, which India blamed on the Pakistan-based militants. • In February, the foreign secretaries held their first formal talks in Delhi. • Before that India had regularly rebuffed Pakistani calls to resume a substantive dialogue, saying Islamabad had not done enough to tackle militants or bring the Mumbai attacks organisers to justice. • Talks between Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna and and his Pakistani counterpart Shah MahmoodQureshi [will take place] in Islamabad on 15 July. Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  38. 4.3) Pakistan and India The future of Indo-Pak relations? • The Observer, Sunday 11 April 2010: • Sania Mirza and Shoaib Malik give India and Pakistan a new reason to squabble • When Sania Mirza and Shoaib Malik – an Indian tennis star and Pakistan's cricket hero – fell in love, it offended Hindu sensibilities and bolstered Muslim pride Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  39. 4.4) The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) • Founded in 1985 • Membership includes 8 countries: • Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka. Since April 2007, Afghanistan • No bilateral or contentious issues to be discussed • Achievements: forum for talks between India and Pakistan; face to face contacts Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  40. 5) Summary • Pakistan‘s strategic location • Afghanistan • Iran • Central Asia • Factors influencing Pakistan and regional security • Domestic: Military rule vis-a-vis civilian government • Communalism, sectarianism and separatism • Terrorism (especially vis-a-vis Afghanistan and Kashmir) • Pakistan‘s self-perception and status as nuclear power • China: Pakistan‘s major strategic ally • Scepticism about American reliability because of past experiences Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  41. 5) Summary cont. Factors to consider for Pakistan policy behaviour • National security state • Matrix of geopolitics, alliance and strategy • Indian antagonism as defining factor • China link • Key players in government and society (triad) • Previous policy • Current economic and social problems • Regional cooperation: SAARC? Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

  42. Further Links South AsiaTerrorism Portal: • http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/index.htm Pakistan Institute forPeace Studies: • http://san-pips.com/ Historyof Pakistan: • http://www.storyofpakistan.com/ South Asia Confidence Building Measures (CBM) – Timeline 1988 – Present • http://www.stimson.org/?SN=SA20060207948 Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

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