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Security Dynamics in South Asia

Security Dynamics in South Asia. Taj Hashmi Professor, Security Studies Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Honolulu, HI 96815 Email: hashmit@apcss.org. South Asia: Political Geography. Geographical Diversity. South Asia’s biggest threat comes from within.

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Security Dynamics in South Asia

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  1. Security Dynamics in South Asia Taj Hashmi Professor, Security Studies Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Honolulu, HI 96815 Email: hashmit@apcss.org

  2. South Asia: Political Geography

  3. Geographical Diversity

  4. South Asia’s biggest threat comes from within • South Asian “Subcontinent” from Afghanistan to Bangladesh home to more than 1.5 billion ethno-religiously and linguistically diverse people • Around 50% illiterate, 40% living below the Poverty Line • Home to Authoritarian regimes and Flawed Democracy • South Asia struggling with itself, countries fear most their own neighbors

  5. Postcolonial Syndrome: Lack of mutual trust, respect & accountability • Understanding of “Postcolonialism” essential: Bad governance, poverty and corruption: the chicken and egg story – Unaccountability, a colonial legacy • Ethno-national insurgencies, separatism, terrorism, narco-terrorism, religious extremism, Maoism are by-products of bad governance • Ethnic (racial) & religious divide & acute regionalism – Hindu-Muslim, Punjabi-Bengali, Southern-Northern, eastern-Western • Uneven distribution of wealth & opportunities ; Water & food scarcity; uneven growth & development due to prejudice, neglect and artificial states / regions

  6. South Asia’s Security Threats: Interstate & Intrastate • Interstate Conflicts: India vs. Pakistan – Kashmir, the mother of all Indo-Pakistan conflicts, the Legacy of the Partition of 1947, or problems of artificial statehood • India vs. Bangladesh , India vs. Nepal. India vs. Sri Lanka and Pakistan vs. Afghanistan • Intrastate Conflicts: Hindu vs. Muslim, Northeast India vs. New Delhi, Northwest vs. North India – Advanced vs. Backward • NWFP-FATA and Baluchistan and Sind – Punjabis vs. Others, Sindhis vs. Indian Muslim Immigrants in Pakistan– East Pakistan vs. West Pakistan led to Bangladesh (1971) • Tamil vs. Sinhalese in Sri Lanka led to 26-year-long civil war

  7. South Asia’s Transnational Security Threats (I) • Non-State Actors’ Game: Transnational crime, insurgencies, terrorism, narco-terrorism the biggest security challenges for South Asia – Across Afghanistan-Pakistan-India-Bangladesh-Myanmar • Internal factors: Marginalization of people, discrimination against ethno-national-religious-linguistic groups –Religious and Secular/communist insurgencies due to alienation of people • Artificial states and problem of identity: Common race, language, religion, sect, ideology unite people across the borders– Kashmir, Afghanistan, NWFP/FATA, Baluchistan, Northeast India, Southeastern Bangladesh, Southwestern Myanmar • By-products of proxy wars: Bleed the “enemy nation”, often backfires, – Kashmir, Baluchistan, NWFP, Assam, Southeast Bangladesh

  8. South Asia’s Transnational Security Threats (II) • Narco-Islamist Terrorism: Drug-mafia, warlord and Taliban-al-Qaeda nexus, Dawood Ibrahim, Lashkar-e-Taiyeba (LET) and Mumbai Massacre (November 2008) • Exploitation of Ethno-National & Religious Causes: Kashmir, Pashtun Identity, Baluchistan, Refugee / Displaced / Marginalized people’s vulnerability exploited in the name of religion & nationalism, Maoism is the latest threat in India, Bangladesh and Nepal • Transnational Security Threats transcend national boundaries: They go beyond South Asia– Russia, Chechnya, Dagestan, Central Asia, Middle East, Xinjiang, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines • HUJI, JMB, LeT, JeM, Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban (TTP), Jemah Islamiya, MILF (Southeast Asia) – Drug-Arms-Ideology

  9. “India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Myanmar Factors” and the Failing State Syndrome: What is to be done? (I) • India having bad to very bad relations with all its neighbors – India and Pakistan’s proxy war in Afghanistan • Need to mend fences and resolve internal problems, including Kashmir • Afghanistan going beyond control: Drug not Taliban-al-Qaeda the biggest security threat • Afghanistan needs good / accountable government – Pashtun majority must get due share in government • Afghanistan’s $750 million annul revenue & paltry foreign aid inadequate against Taliban-al Qaeda-Drug-lords’ billions of dollars

  10. “India-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Myanmar Factors” and the Failing State Syndrome: What is to be done (II) • Pakistan must ensure equal opportunity to minorities and gradually de-Islamize the polity and must contain Dawood Ibrahim Group and Islamists & ambitious generals • Myanmar should stop persecuting Rohingya Muslim, Karen and other minorities -- China must be engaged to contain Myanmar • Iran, Saudi Arabia must be engaged to contain Islamism • Good governance must be ensured in South Asia, especially Afghanistan – “American War” must become “Everyone’s War” beyond the NATO – Human Security not Guns alone can ensure security

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