SADC activities on the use of GIS and RS for Agricultural Meteorology

1. SADC activities on the use of GIS and RS for Agricultural Meteorology T. Tamuka Magadzire SADC Regional Remote Sensing Unit, USGS/FEWSNET WMO/FAO Training Workshop on GIS and Remote Sensing Application in Agricultural Meteorology for SADC Countries. November 14-18, 2005 Gaborone, Botswana

2. Outline • Background to SADC Region • SDC RRSU Background • Available EO-based data • Modelling Applications of EO data • End-user information products • RRSU Database • Partnerships - GMFS

3. Southern African Development Community • 14 Member States. • 200+ million people. • Varied climate regions. • Mostly uni-modal rainfall systems (bi-modal in the north). • Varied cropping systems. • Maize (corn) dominant crop • Cassava and tubers important in the north. • Rain fed agriculture – irrigation only significant in South Africa and Zimbabwe. The SADC Region - Background Prone to floods and droughts.

4. The SADC Region - Background Climatic Hazards in SADC • Floods and droughts are the major climatic hazards in the SADC Region. • Serious drought in 1991-92: • Flooding in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana and South Africa in 2000: • Cyclones Eline and Gloria responsible. • 4 million people affected. Lessons learnt. • SADC Disaster Management Strategy formulated. • Further flooding in ensuing years (e.g. in 2003 from Cyclone Delfina (January) and Cyclone Japhet (March)) • Serious droughts between 2001 and 2005 in several SADC countries:

5. 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

6. SADC RRSU: Organizational Context The SADC Secretariat is comprised of four directorates, including the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources (FANR) Directorate The SADC Regional Remote Sensing Unit (RRSU) is a project within the FANR Directorate

7. Institutional Setting SADC RRSU Cooperating Partners:

8. Main Objective of RRSU Strengthen national and regional capabilities in the area of Remote Sensing, Agrometeorology and GIS. Support early warning for food security and natural resources and disaster management. Principal contact institutions: National Meteorological Services (NMSs). National Early Warning Units (NEWUs). National Disaster Management Units.

9. SADC RRSU: Operational Activities Training of agro-meteorologists in the use of satellite imagery products and GIS for early warning for food security. Monitoring crops, vegetation and weather developments during the crop growing period using satellite images and GIS techniques. Developing and maintaining database of satellite images, maps and associated data.

10. Creating trained experts in RS and GIS applications. RRSU: Agromet & GIS Training • National staff seconded to RRSU • Backstopping missions organized for on-the-job training in Member States. • Subject- or application- specific workshops conducted at national and regional levels.

11. SADC Region Early Warning Information flow • Outgoing: satellite-based information and analysis NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU

12. SADC Region Early Warning Information flow • Incoming: ground-based information and analysis NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU NEWU

13. Available EO-based Data • Available satellite-based data used for Agromet activities are vegetation products and rainfall estimates. • These products are analyzed and further processed into application specific products for flood and drought monitoring by USGS/FEWSNET and RRSU

14. Monitoring Rainfall Activity • Rainfall Estimate (RFE) images. • Combine satellite images with rain gauge observations. • RRSU receives RFE images from USGS – EROS Data Center.

15. NOAA Rainfall Estimates • Rainfall Estimates (RFE) are produced by NOAA for the FEWSNET activity, and distributed in southern Africa through RRSU • Uses a number of datasets • Meteosat data used to composite a CCD image at -38oC, a rainfall estimate is generated from the CCD using the GOES Precipitation Index (GPI). GPI = CCD x 3 • WMO GTS rainfall data from approx. 1000 stations (not all stations used at any given time), and are taken as the true rainfall within 15-km radius of each station • Two satellite microwave instruments, SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) and the AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit), which acquire data every 6 hours and every 12 hours respectively. • The four datasets are merged to produce an improved product

16. RFE – Related Activities • SADC RRSU operates the WinTRES system and generates daily and dekadal Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) images from Meteosat-7 TIR images • RRSU currently working on computer algorithms in collaboration with Botswana Met Services to enable the use of MSG Meteosat-8 images in CCD generation • Interest has been expressed by SADC nationals in improving RFE using local rain gauge data • Some workshops have been held by NOAA on implementation of their RFE production technique locally in Africa – RRSU installed this technique locally for short time • Limited by operational availability of rain-gauge information

17. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images. • Sources of NDVI are NOAA AVHRR (8km), SPOT VGT (1.1km) and MODIS (250m) Monitoring Vegetation Condition MODIS: 250m AVHRR: 8 km SPOT: 1 km

18. Seasonal Trends • Time series curves for visualizing seasonal trends. • Comparing against long-term (average) trends. • Main crop-growing regions in SADC monitored.

19. Monitoring Crop Condition: WRSI • The Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) is a crop specific water balance approach that models the effect of seasonal rainfall availability on potential crop yields. • Two approaches are used in the SADC region – using satellite-based, distributed approach, and a ground-based point-specific approach • The model is being used in several SADC countries to monitor crop water use with a view to yield forecasting and estimation. SADC RRSU is providing training • Operational model run at USGS but modern modelling software now publicly available from FAO and USGS.

20. Crop Water Balance Modeling Water Requirements Satisfaction Index Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) WRSI=100*AET/WR Regression models Yield Estimation

21. WRSI Water Balance - Products WRSI WRSI Anomaly Start of Season Soil Water Index

22. SWI, West Africa WRSI Anom, East Africa SOS, Southern Africa • Can model for multiple regions or countries • Can enter field information on planting, soils, maturity • Can model using information for • multiple planting dates • multiple varieties (maturity periods) • multiple crop types • Range of outputs: SOS, WRSI, WRSI Anom, SWI etc WRSI, Zambia

23. End-user Information Products • A number of bulletins are produced to meet information requirements, including: • Regular agrometeorological updates at 10-daily and monthly intervals • Ad-hoc “Significant Weather Developments” (SWD) bulletin which aims to “ provide timely highlights of developing weather patterns and their potential impacts to human lives and property” • Other special bulletins to address current or issues e.g. forecast interpretation; drought alert

24. Rainfall Areas Crops Models Agro-Meteorological Update Agromet Up-dates

25. Rainfall Areas Crops Models Agro-Meteorological Update

26. Forecast Cyclone Tracks Major River Basins Significant Weather Developments

27. Examples from SWD bulletins

28. Developed and maintained on central computer at the RRSU • Abridged onto CD for external use. • Simple and open data formats make data portable. RRSU Database RRSU Standard Vector Data. Satellite data. Raster images with climatic parameters. Tabular data with agricultural statistics and population data. Free WinDisp 3.5 & 4 software for data viewing. Current CD-ROM version is 2.0. Details from rrsu@sadc.int

29. RRSU Data holdings • comprises both baseline datasets and earth observation datasets, compiled from a variety of sources • uniform regional standard vector data set for SADC at a scale of 1:1 million was compiled as part of this dataset • originated from the DCW • updated using inputs from the SADC countries

30. RRSU Data holdings • Administrative (borders, subnational boundaries, cities) • Elevation • Land use and land cover • Hydrology (water bodies, rivers, lakes) • Infrastructure (roads, railroads, bridges, airports, utility lines) • Soil • Agriculture (crop zone maps) • Climate (rainfall, temperature etc) • Demography • Satellite images

31. RRSU Data holdings

32. Partnerships - GMFS • SADC RRSU has been collaborating with the GMFS consortium over the last couple of years • GMFS is developing products for estimation of yield and area planted to crops, as well as other monitoring products • Concentrating on using a combination of SAR and optical EO data to id crop extent and phenological stages • GMFS has done some preliminary work for product development in Malawi, with potential for spreading to SADC region • Products are currently being validated by GMFS

33. Contacts • RRSU Coordinator • Dr. Kennedy Masamvu: kmasamvu@sadc.int • Regional Agrometeorologist • Dr. Elijah Mukhala: emukhala@sadc.int • Database Specialist • Mrs. Dorothy Nyamhanza: dnyamhanza@sadc.int • Research Assistant • Mr. Blessing Siwela: bsiwela@sadc.int • GeoInformatics Scientist (USGS/FEWSNET Regional Rep. Southern Africa) • Mr. T. Tamuka Magadzire: tmagadzire@fews.net Website: http://www.sadc.int

34. Re a leboha Grazie Zikomo Obrigado Thank You Tinotenda Gracias Siyabonga Asante sana Merci Beaucoup

35. Websites for cyclone monitoring • Forecasted cyclone track: • http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/newjtwc.html • http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh0203.gif • Latest cyclone track: • http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/trajGP/data/home_trajGP.html • Latest satellite imagery: • http://www.eumetsat.de/en/index.html?area=left5.html&body=/en/m_area5.html&a=500&b=0&c=0&d=0&e=0 • Other useful websites for extreme-weather monitoring: • http://www.sadc-hazards.net • http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/briefing.html • http://www.dmc.co.zw • http://grads.iges.org/pix/af.fcst.html • http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WXMAP/index.html • http://metservice.intnet.mu/wsatpic.htm • http://weather.yahoo.com/regional/AFRICAX.html • http://gisdata.usgs.net/sa_floods/aspmap/ • Note: Although the SADC national meteorology websites have not been included here, they are very good for monitoring. Links to most of them can be found at: • http://www.sadc.int/ ???

36. NOAA RFE - Limitations • Weaknesses in datasets • Microwave inputs have 6hr and 12hr repeat rate: estimates can either miss out some storms altogether, or overestimate rainfall when the satellite image is taken at the peak of a storm • Rainfall is estimated most accurately in the vicinity of GTS gauges • Meteosat-derived GPI estimates capture convectional rainfall very well. However, other rainfall types (e.g. orographic) are not estimated as accurately. Also cirrus clouds can cause over-estimation *Note that the merging process makes these datasets complementary