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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 September 2019. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 September 2019 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of northwestern and southern Brazil, northeastern Argentina and northeastern Peru. Above-average precipitation was observed over small portions of northern and central Brazil, as well as central Colombia. • For Days 1-7 (23 - 29 Sep 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over portions of central and the extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, southern Paraguay, Bolivia, Venezuela, northern Colombia and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of southern Brazil and central Colombia.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of northwestern and southern Brazil, northeastern Argentina and northeastern Peru. Above-average precipitation was observed over small portions of northern and central Brazil, as well as central Colombia.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of northern South America as well as portions of southern Brazil, central Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of Uruguay, northern Peru and central Colombia.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin (~ 60mm), the Brazilian Plateau (~ 50 mm), and the extreme southern Brazil (~ 200mm).

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above-average over western tropical Pacific and below-average across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the recent 7-day period, anomalous anticyclonic flow (center noted by red A) was observed over northern Argentina. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was observed over northern and central Brazil, as well as northern and southern Argentina, and anomalous rising motion was observed over northwestern South America and the extreme southern Brazil. A • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the recent 7-day period, above-average temperature was seen over much of Brazil. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 23 Sep 2019–Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 23 Sep 2019– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (23 - 29 Sep 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over portions of central and the extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, southern Paraguay, Bolivia, Venezuela, northern Colombia and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of southern Brazil and central Colombia. • For Days 8-14 (30 Sep – 06 Oct 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over portions of central and southern Brazil and northeastern South America. Above-average precipitation is predicted for much of Uruguay, Peru and southern Colombia.

  13. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  14. Precipitation Climatology

  15. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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